INVN

Looks like you were right Saul. Down 15% in after hours.

Looks like you were right Saul. Down 15% in after hours.

I get them wrong plenty of times too, but this one seemed clear in advance.

Saul

Saul,

What did you see in advance?

thanks

andy

Yeah I’m very disappointed with the results. I think right now it has a PE 24.4 if it manages to hit the high side of earnings estimates for 2015 ( I think I read .70 - .75. Please correct me if you have the exact forecast numbers). That feels kind of richly valued for something a year out already.

It also doesn’t make me confident on INVN’s ability to manage realistic expectations.

Keith

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Saul, What did you see in advance? thanks, andy

Andy, I posted this on 4/26 in post #1017 when dtonb expressed surprise that I had sold out of INVB considering that it was so well thought of on MF.

Hi again tdonb,

I didn’t have a real good reason for getting out of INVN. Here are some contributing reasons.

1. Calendar-year-2013 earnings compared to calendar-year-2012 earnings were just 65 cents compared to 58 cents, or up just about 12%. Not a fast grower. (This is not fiscal year which ends in March).

2. Dec quarter earnings were 15 cents, which was DOWN from 19 cents the year before and DOWN from 21 cents sequentially.

3. Their outlook for the Mar quarter was for 9 to 11 cents, which was down from 15 cents the year before, and down from 15 cents sequentially (but they may well have been low-balling).

4. The PE ratio was about 34, which seemed at least fully priced considering.

5. The price hadn’t fallen much from the high of about $23.50, and I needed cash to buy things which were growing faster, and had fallen much more. So I looked around and decided to sell INVN. It may have been a big mistake, we’ll have to see.

Hope this helps,

Saul

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This seems to be a thoughtful article on INVN over on SA, I will have to follow the response’s to it.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2186473-the-next-innovation-…

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Saul, yes, it does. Thank you

Andy