IRA Growth my stock picking methods

Investment Analysis Clubs Liquid Lounge
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We have been discussing my methods for picking stocks (after my IRA was up 60% this year) over on the METAR board. I’m moving it here for investment discussions as that’s a bit off topic on the METAR board.

You can find the earlier details in the METAR tread beginning here: https://discussion.fool.com/t/will-speculative-assets-fall/122000/11

My IRA holding are–

APH AMPHENOL CORP CLASS A COM USD0.001
ARKK ARK ETF TRUST INNOVATION ETF
AVGO BROADCOM INC COM
GE GE AEROSPACE COM NEW
HOOD ROBINHOOD MKTS INC COM CL A
MPWR MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INC
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC
RDDT REDDIT INC CL A
XBI SPDR SERIES TRUST STATE STREET S&P BIOTECH ETF
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST TECHNOLOGY SELECT SECTOR USD DIS

Stocks in my taxable account are–

AAPL APPLE INC
ABBV ABBVIE INC COM USD0.01
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC
APH AMPHENOL CORP CLASS A COM USD0.001
ARKK ARK ETF TRUST INNOVATION ETF
AVGO BROADCOM INC COM
AZO AUTOZONE INC COM USD0.01
BLE BLACKROCK MUNICIPAL INCOME TRUST II
CAT CATERPILLAR INC COM
CSX CSX CORP COM USD1
FXAIX FIDELITY 500 INDEX FUND
GE GE AEROSPACE COM NEW
GLW CORNING INC
GOOG ALPHABET INC CAP STK CL C
KLAC KLA CORP COM NEW
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORP COM NEW
META META PLATFORMS INC CLASS A COMMON STOCK
MSFT MICROSOFT CORP
NFLX NETFLIX INC
RCL ROYAL CARIBBEAN GROUP COM USD0.01
SHW SHERWIN-WILLIAMS CO
STX SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HLDGS PUB LTD CO
TOL TOLL BROTHERS INC
UBER UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC COM
UNP UNION PAC CORP COM
WAB WABTEC COM
WDC WESTERN DIGITAL CORP. COM

There is also a very big chunk of Nvidia but it is already moved to irrevocable trust

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Here is my 190 stock watch list with 3 month gain data from October See code explanation at the very bottom. ^^ are my investible stocks for more research. ++ means above both 50 and 200 day moving averages. Losers at the top; winners at the bottom. Sell losers to buy winners. Constantly ratchet upward to better performance.

3 Month Growth Oct 17.2025
PE
AI none -38.31
SHAK e133 -31.64
CE 9.4 -29.87
CAVA e189 -28.03
DOW$ 7 -22.76
CMG 57 -22.38
WHR 14 -21.91
RACE 61 -21.04
FTNT 46 -20.85
TDG 50.9 -20.75
MOS 30.5 -19.09
TXN 24 -18.48
STZ e22 -17.68
CTVA 33.8 -15.95
ACN 34 -15.60
NVO e37 -15.46
APD 29 -14.26
RCL e15 -14.22 -50 flat
UTZ 54 -12.89
MCHP e70 -12.89
BYDDY e26 -12.56
INTU 63 -12.12
SMR none -11.94
PM 25.8 -11.56
PPG 24 -11.32
AXON 178 -11.30
ALK 20.88 -10.99
CHEF 42 -10.29
PYPL 29 -9.11
ADBE 54 -8.89
BUD 20 -8.50
WAB e24 -8.38 ++ flat
DE 20.7 -8.27
CRM e31 -7.36
BA none -7.15
KBR 19 -6.83
KRE 9.4 -6.64
JBL 15 -6.54
NOW e67 -6.21
AMZN$ e94 -5.79 dndn dip
TAP e12 -5.45
HEI 69.6 -4.79
KBE -4.41
MAR 25 -4.30
TXT 22.8 -4.28
CCL 218 -4.20
DG 21 -3.95
HAS 38 -3.86
SPOT loss -3.45
LIN 41.6 -3.04
NCLH 170 -2.76
SHW* 38 -2.74 dndn dip
GEHC 20 -2.51
PG 28 -2.39
ITW 25 -2.31
V 35.8 -2.05
KO 28 -2.02
COST 47 -1.54
NFLX 56 -0.82 -50 rec
XLF -0.69
INDA -0.09
VEEV 71 0.51
UNP 25 0.52 -200 flat
FICDX 0.66
MSFT 35.8 0.69 ++ flat
AMGN 42 1.37
PH 18 1.52
META 30 1.79 -50 flat
CRWD e71 1.83
UBER 16 1.89 -50 flat sell ira
CVX 16 2.03
JPM 17 2.16
ADSK e34 2.23
ENOR 2.33
ECL 35 2.98
CSCO 25.13 3.06
FAGIX 3.13
SCHW 25.8 3.16
EIRL 3.18
CDNS 76 3.34
ESI 37 3.52
MCD 28 3.71
BRK.B 12.9 3.93
ABT 31 3.94
LLY e86 4.03
XOM 17 4.15
VIK e14 4.17
RTX 38 4.26
FDIVX ok recov 4.48
NSC 37 4.74
ITA 5.01
FXI 10.57 5.10
FLVCX 5.14
VXF 5.14
VFINX 5.29 ++ flat
DD 19.3 5.32
QCOM 21 5.59
EWU 5.70
DAL 8.8 5.95
MRK 19 6.04
PANW 203 6.19
NVDA e47 6.27 ++ flat
CSX 21 6.43 ++ flat
REGN 31 6.55
LMT 18.7 6.72
RBLX none 6.76
GEV e92 6.90 -50 flat sell
LHX 27 7.21
PEP 7.31
UAL 11 7.47
BLE 7.74 ++ stairs
AZO 18.8 8.51 -50 flat
KWEB 34 9.03
HD 26 9.04
AN 11.65 9.12
ARKK 38.05 9.16 ++ dip
XLK 37.72 9.25 ++ flat
GRMN 30.6 9.26
EADSY 35 9.31
HSY 32 9.60
IEMG 9.62
DASH 302 9.99
ORLY 30 10.03
HII 14.4 10.03
FSPTX 10.04
SSO 10.56
MLM 28 10.68
GD 19.9 10.76
J e23 12.06
MO 39 12.12
AXP 20 12.56
MTD 38 12.92
FSEAX 13.04
HOG 8.7 13.50
QLD 13.83
DELL 20.8 13.98
GE 38.7 14.00 ++ flat
EWJ 14.19
NOC 21.88 14.54
LEN 7 14.83
OLN e6.5 14.87 dndn dip
PLTR e268 16.04 ++ flat
TOL 9.76 16.09 -50 flat
WAT 29 16.37 ++ stairs flat
SAM 16.43 -200 flat
ADM 26.4 16.44 ++
DHI 13.13 16.61 -50 flat
SOXX 16.80 ++ flat
PCT none 17.44 -50 dip
CMI 19 18.30 ++ dip
HOOD e32 18.38 ++ dip
ORCL 34 18.68 ++ stairs flat
KLAC 24 18.85 ++ bumpy
IBB 18.85 ++ ^
AAPL 30 19.47 ++ flat
CEG 31.85 20.25 ++ dip ^
VMI 34 20.62 ++ flat
ABBV 65.3 21.30 ++ flat
APH 42 21.59 ++ stairs
XBI 22.80 ^^ buy
AVGO e44 23.29 ++ stairs flat
IDXX 48 23.47 -50 flat
A 52 24.50 ++ stairs
BAR 26.20 ++ dip ^
GLDM 26.28 ++ dip ^
CAT* 16 27.40 ++ dip ^
ANET 51.99 28.02 ++ dip flat
TMO 26 29.94 ++ stairs flat
BG 9 31.01 ++ stairs
RDDT 32 31.51 -50 flat
TSLA e62 33.27 ++ flat
GOOGL 27 36.87 ++ flat
MPWR 19.57 38.53 ^^ buy
ASML 18.9 40.12 ^^ falling erns
CLF 5 40.51 ++ dip
LRCX 16 40.58 ++ flat
PII$ 13 41.95 ++ stairs
BWXT 45 42.09 ++ dip ^
AMD 129 48.47 ++ stairs
STX 33 51.20 ++ flat
NEM 17.69 55.30 ++ dip
ALAB e107 56.47 -50 flat
AU 20.79 56.75 ++ dip
GLW 84.64 59.51 ++ flat
APP 75 68.58 ++ dip
IONS none 70.89 ++ stairs ^
MU 29.57 76.92 ^^ buy
WDC 20.3 85.59 ^^
OKLO none 136.87 ++ ^
SNDK 21 238.88 ++ ^
BE 735 351.60 ++ flat
Median 5.29
Code
++ above both the 50 day and 200 day moving average
-50 below the 50 day moving average
-200 below the 200 day moving average
dl Dogleg. Flat after former gain. Likely to become a sell soon
dndn below both the 50 and 200 day moving average
^^ usually over 20% growth rate and steady growth
^ gain in last month or so. Possilbe future ^^
stairs major price shift (rather than steady growth)
dip trending down recently
rec recovering from recent dip. Up trend
bumpy wild price variations
flat share price steady rather than up or down
$ Low growth on 1 yr list. Sell at first opportunity
* Long term holding. Tend to keep.
ePE Estimated forward PE usually on 4x last qtr earnings.
2 Likes
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Thank you, @pauleckler .

Do you re-sort the same 190 stocks every month? Or do you add/ drop some? If so, how?

Thanks,

Wendy

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@pauleckler- How do you decide if the stock or ETF goes in taxable ac vs Roth IRA? I see some names show up in both. What is the thought process there? Given you dump losers, do you ever bump into potential disallowed losses and/or does it affect the decision on when to take losses? Interesting list. Just a few names on the watchlist e.g. ALAB, LRCX, match my watch ist (already have QCOM in both Roth and taxable)

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Yes, I get new data every month for the last 90 days and I resort. So fastest growing stocks appear at the bottom of the list. The order changes—sometimes a lot. Earnings reports can cause major changes in price. Indicated by “stairs” notation. I tend to avoid those and prefer stocks that increase in price steadily rather than in stairs.

If you draw a straight line between price three months ago and now, preferred stock closely follows that line. Steady growth preferred and over 15% increase in 90 days—implying 60% per year.

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I add stocks to my watch list when they meet my 15% growth in 90 days criteria. And if they look interesting. I usually delete the worst performing stocks but may keep those of interest or with potential recover.

The idea is to accumulate stocks while they are performing well.

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Where I put a stock usually depends on what i want to sell. Easy to sell losers. Easy to sell in the IRA. In taxable account capital gains are a consideration. When i have gains but stock is no longer performing i prefer to wait for long term. Rarely sell short term. But often look for sale that generates funds w the least capital gains.

I use a capital gains budget to keep taxes manageable. As budget gets depleted it gets more complicated. Have quite a few stocks w large capital gains accumulation. When capital gains exceed $100k sellings gets costly. Better to let heirs inherit w stepped up basis.

Another problem area is the stock w rapidly rising PE. I prefer stocks w PE below abt 60, but let winners run. It share price rises faster than earnings PE can grow out of my comfort range. That causes me to keep a close eye on it. But still would not sell in taxable acct before one year.

The ideal is the stock that grows 10 to 20% and stays there for a year. Those can be easy to harvest and redirect funds. Faster and mote volatile once can be tricky. Part of the risk of investing.

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Not sure what you mean by disallowed losses. Capital gains is my major concern. Wash sales has not been a problem. Please explain what you have in mind.

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Sectors

I can sort the 190 stocks into abt 20 sectors. Here is the sector summary from October.

By sectors–

Tech Stocks. Best: Sandisk, Western Digital, Micron, APP, and ALAB 56 to 239%. Worst: AI, FTNT, TXN, MHP -12.9 to -38%

ETFs Best: SOXX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index), EWJ (Japan), QLD, FSEAX up 13 to 16%. Worst: XLF, INDA (India), FICDX (Canada) -0.69 to 0.66%

Homebuilders. Worst KBR -6.8% All others 12 to 16.6%

Paint & Hardware. Best: Home Depot 9%. Worst: Whirlpool and PPG -11 to -22%

Drugs: Best: IONS, IDXX, XBI, ABBV Up 20 to 70% Worst: NVO, GEHC -15 to -2.5%

Beer & Cigarettes. Best: Boston Beer and Altria up 12 to 16% Worst: Constellation Brands, Phillip Morris, Anheuser Busch -17.7 to -8.5%

Manufacturing. Best Caterpillar, Cummings, GE, Mettler up 12.9 to 27.4% Worst: TDG, Boeing, Heico, and Illinois Tools Works -20.7 to -2.3%

Chemicals Best: Corning, PCT, Olin up 14.9 to 59.5% Worst: Celanese, Dow, Air Products -30 to -14%

Auto Parts Best: CLF, Tesla, O’Reilly up 10 to 40.5%. Worst: Ferrari and BYD. -21 to -12.5%

Finance. Best Robinhood and American Express. 12.6 to 18.3%. Worst: Accenture and Intuit -15.6 to -12%

Toys. Best: Polaris and Harley Best 13.5 to 41.95% Worst: Hasbro, Spotify, and Netflix -3.9 to -0.82. Polaris doing well after announcing plans to sell Indian Motorcycles business.

Instruments All three Thermofisher, Agilent, and Waters doing very well. Up 16 to 30%. Reason unknown.

Railroads. Best: CSX and Norfolk Southern up 5 to 6%. Both in play over Union Pacific plans to buy Norfolk Southern. Worst: Wabtec -8%

Consumers: Best: RDDT, Doordash, Hershey Up 9 to 31.5% Worst: Shakeshack, Cava, Chipotle, Utz, and Chef. -31.6 to -10%

Travel Best: United Airlines, Delta, Viking Up 4 to 7.5% Worst: Royal Cruise Lines, Alaska Airlines, Marriot, Carnival. -14% to -4%

Agriculture Best Bunge, ADM Up 16 to 31%. Worst: Mosaic, Corteva, Deere. -19 to -8%

Commodities. Best: BE, OKLO, AU, NEM Up 55 to 351% Worst CVX and Exxon. 2 to 4%. Many in mid twenties.

Defense. Best Palantir, Northrup, General Dynamics, MLM, HII up 10 to 16%. Worst AXON and TXT -11 to -4%

Judging by % increases top five sectors are commodities, tech stocks, drugs, chemicals, and toys,

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If you own stocks only in a taxable ac, the outcomes are capital gain, capital loss, zero, or possible a wash sale.

If you own shares in both IRA and taxable ac, it is possible to trigger an additional event - a disallowed loss event. The pairing of transactions is - loss in taxable ac, purchase in IRA (the two events within 30 days, order does not matter)

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Thanks, Hohum. I was not aware of the disallowed loss event. It has not been a problem for me.

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@pauleckler thank you for sharing. Where do you obtain your list? Can you please share a link?

Thanks,

Wendy