Iran's Strait of Hormuz Dangerous Leverage

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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fuel, fertilisers, industrial CO2 and naphtha have already been affected, potentially leading to shortages of food and other essential products across the globe.

The rise in oil prices has already led to the partial closure or production reductions in fertiliser plants in India, Malaysia and Bangladesh.

The full impact on food prices will take time to appear.

“The food that’s in the market right now has already been grown,” Gill said, adding that the real effects could be felt in a few months.

In Japan, concern about the economic fallout from the Middle East war has focused on disruption to the flow of naphtha – an oil product produced by distilling crude oil that is essential to making many medical goods.

So beyond oil, a shortage of food and life preserving medicines will occur if the Iran war not resolved.
And besides the financial disruption; society upheaval even in first world nations?
Because of the prior sentence will NATO nations join with the US that ultimately leads to boots on the ground in Iran?

This war has NOT been won. Iran is in the catbird seat. But it must walk a razor’s edge not to drive other nations to support the USA’s goal of regime change.

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Control Panel: Valuations. Temporary?
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The question that needs to be asked is: what are the United States’ objectives and endgame in this war?

The U.S. appears intent on ending Iran’s long-standing defiance in the region. For nearly 50 years, Iran has consistently challenged U.S. influence and interests. As a result, this conflict could persist for some time, with meaningful implications for the global economy. It is unlikely to be existential for the United States, but it could be for Iran.

At a broader level, U.S. policymakers seem determined to assert American power and shape outcomes globally. This reflects a recurring pattern in U.S. foreign interventions, where overarching strategic aims guide tactical decisions, even when outcomes remain uncertain or uneven.

There will inevitably be unintended consequences, and the U.S. may come to regret some of them if events unfold unfavorably. Nevertheless, it is likely to continue pursuing its chosen course. At the same time, resistance and pushback are inevitable—and arguably necessary, as no single power can or should act without constraint in the international system.

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Approximately 34 Iranian oil tankers have slipped through the blockade, with 19 vessels exiting the Persian Gulf past Trump’s navy and another 15 ships entering from the Arabian Sea toward Iran, according to the Financial Times.

Six of those tankers were smuggling Iranian crude oil totaling 10.7 million barrels, estimated to be worth approximately $910 million in revenue for the regime.

Washington Post:
https://archive.is/FPQrs
Clearing Strait of Hormuz of mines could take 6 months, Pentagon tells Congress

The Pentagon assessment, shared in a classified briefing for lawmakers, suggests gasoline and oil prices could remain elevated through the midterm elections.

A senior Defense Department official shared the estimate, which has not been previously reported, during a classified briefing Tuesday for members of the House Armed Services Committee, said three officials familiar with the discussion. The timeline — met with frustration by Democrats and Republicans alike, two of these people said — is perhaps the clearest sign that gasoline and oil prices could remain elevated long after any peace deal is reached.

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I’ll say. We’re not allowed to mention the country that started this war with the surprise attack on Feb 28th. We really need to reexamine our military spending and where it’s going.

By year-end we’ll be in a global depression and many countries around the World will be in famine – and American taxpayers will be blamed for all of it because they funded it.

intercst

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That already has been stated. Regime change. That has failed and revised to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. Again that goal has failed.

LOL It could be existential for the WORLD if the strait remains closed.

Oh yes. Except for the Gulf War & Grenada, the interventions have been failures. Which I guess why our president wants to increase the War department funding by 50% so our nation can continue meddling in the world.

Yep. The “Exceptional” nation must continue to dominate on the world stage! Regardless how damaging that has been in the past and currently is occuring.

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For deep insights into Persian relations with neighbors and with its own elites throughout long history, as well as one of the greatest reads in world literature, see this:

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Iran’s calculation:

Yes Iran is being hurt. But they calculate Iran can endure longer.

their conviction that their readiness to endure the pain of the war is higher than Mr. Trump’s.

Despite the vast destruction from U.S.-Israeli strikes on their country, they believe that they can withstand the increasingly costly U.S. blockade of Iranian ports longer than Mr. Trump is willing to countenance Iran’s effective closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz.

“The Iranians measure the timeline in months for themselves, and in weeks for the Trump administration and the global economy,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director for the International Crisis Group. “They think Trump can’t tolerate the strait remaining closed for another three weeks.”

Throughout the war, Iran has used mocking memes and videos to try to convey superiority and indifference in the face of Mr. Trump’s threats.

And not only the US but the EU too!

Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, wrote on X that “under international law, transit through waterways like the Strait of Hormuz must remain open and free of charge.”

But the Iranian regime poured scorn on Kallas’ assertion.

“Oh, that ‘international law’?! The one that the EU dusts off to lecture others while quietly green-lighting a U.S.-Israeli war of aggression — and looking the other way on atrocities against Iranians?!” Esmaeil Baqaei, spokesperson at the Iranian foreign ministry, wrote on X.

In a stinging rebuke, Baqaei said that “no rule of international law forbids Iran, the coastal State, from taking necessary measures to stop the Strait of Hormuz being used for waging military aggression against Iran.”

Oh those cheeky Iranians.

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Well, even the USA public has mostly come to the realization that POTUS is a neurotic spoiled brat with the attention span of a … taco. The Iranians have long long long made a specialty of strategic patience.

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I fear yall just want one assumption.

Vietnam Iraq Afghanistan Korea what president said 5 weeks? Those are our sane presidents?

The world is a crazy place.

Peace deal could be the ultimate buy the rumor sell the news.