However, the company has made steps to improve its manufacturing process, telling investors in February at its analyst day that it would skip the 7 nanometer node and go to 5 nanometers for client processors.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger made a trip to Asia earlier this week and asked Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM), which now makes chips for the U.S. tech giant, for additional capacity, according to Digitimes. Gelsinger, who also visited Japan and India on his trip, according to Bloomberg, is in search for high-tech 7 nanometer capacity, as well as more mature 28 nanometer capacity in an effort to help with tight supply.
If there are problems with Intel 4 than Intel will need to announce Intel 4 delays at the next quarterly investors meeting to avoid misleading share holders. Unless, Gelsinger has procured enough 7nm supply from TSMC to cover the Intel 4 server chips since client will go straight to 20A. Then the announcement that everything is on TSMC 7nm can be delayed until just before launch.
The author is somewhat confused. Intel has not said anything about “client” processors, but rather canceled the Intel 4 server processor. They kept the same name “Granite Rapids”, but it is now on Intel 3.
That said, there are many indications Intel 4 may be later than many expect. The first Intel 4 volume production factory is fab 34 in Ireland. They started installing tools earlier this year, and just now we have heard they installed the first EUV stepper. I think that means we won’t see volume from this factory until about Q2 2023. D1X in Oregon where Intel 4 (and all other Intel process technologies) is being developed is very large. However, Intel has continued to call it an R&D facility, indicating it may not generate any production volume. I have been looking for an answer here, but have not heard anything definitive. If there is production from D1X, it would be fairly small quantities.
There is also the rumor that the Intel 4 meteor lake CPU chiplet is paired with a TSMC N3 GPU chiplet. I would not expect the TSMC N3 chiplet to be ready until around Q2 2023, which pairs nicely with the Ireland factory schedule.
Intel continues to say N4 is production ready around Q3 of 2022, but I am not sure when we would see any product.
Alan
Thanks Alan. This is actually very significant information for AMD and Intel. Intel appears to be skating a fine line with investor relations. There total presentation makes everyone think that Intel is coming back this year. Their actual claims that are buried in the presentations say differently. I pulled this from the article you referenced.
D1X has the heavy burden of delivering five nodes in four years. According to its presentation (slide 5), Intel will reach process performance per watt parity with its most advanced rivals in 2024. In 2025 it expects to seize the lead, thanks to continuing lithography leadership (slide 7) and the all-new gate-all-around transistor technology dubbed RibbonFET, plus the new backside power delivery network dubbed PowerVia.
So if we consider all the information in this thread and Intel’s timelines from their slides
I4 (7nm) = Q3 2022
I3 (7nm+) = Q3 2023
20A (5nm) = Q1 2024
19A (5nm+) = 2025 = Intel claims unquestioned leadership in 2025
The rumors that Intel will skip I4+I3 and go straight to 20A for server are looking like they might be true. (I would expect limited I4 and I3 desktop parts just to keep from being accused of lying to investors.)
I am definitely not convinced that Intel will take back the node crown in 2025. AMD also continues to drive the efficiency and architecture game better than what Intel is doing.
Intel will be competitive in 2025 but I do not think that Intel will return to their dominate AMD crushing position by 2025. So I still expect we will have three more years of high growth from AMD.
I would expect limited I4 and I3 desktop parts
Laptop is around 70% of the client market, and Intel tends to focus here with desktop as more of an afterthought. I am thinking back to the original icelake 10nm start-up and I suspect N4 startup will be similar. They did have limited production from D1X, since icelake was introduced before the startup of the Israel fab 28 production factory. Intel also had the 14nm comet lake introduced at about the same time as the 10nm icelake. If we just update that to the N7 and N4 names, we would expect the N7 Raptor lake to become the dominant desktop product, and fill substantial laptop segments. Meteor lake on N4 would be high end laptops, with limited output from D1X.
Intel is certainly in a crunch as none of the old 14nm factories can be refitted for N4. Swan was starving capital investment just as he starved the silicon R&D process, so it will take a while for the radically increased spending Pat G. approved to take effect.
Intel will not have enough N3/N4 factory capacity available to meet all the laptop demand, let alone any desktop demand. I would tend to agree with you that they will not do much if anything for desktop on those nodes, but perhaps for different reasons.
The mitigating factor for Intel is that at N4 they switch to a chiplet architecture. The number of good CPU chiplets they get out of a factory could easily be double the number of monolithic die they would have produced. The GPU and I/O part of the product will be manufactured at TSMC.
As a side note, Intel mentioned they have a finfet version of the 20A process. The reason TSMC N3 has slipped so much is the original process was GAA, and when that failed it took some time to convert back to finfet. If the 20A GAA approach fails, Intel is ready to fall back to finfets.
Alan
So if we consider all the information in this thread and Intel’s timelines from their slides I4 (7nm) = Q3 2022 I3 (7nm+) = Q3 2023 20A (5nm) = Q1 2024 19A (5nm+) = 2025 = Intel claims unquestioned leadership in 2025
Okay, that’s apparently the latest road map.
But when did Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) last meet the schedule projected in its road map?
And is there any reason to believe that the situation has changed and that the company will start meeting its announced product schedules going forward?
Methinks we need to take this announcement with a healthy dose of salt.
But when did Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) last meet the schedule projected in its road map?
If you look back a few years you will read projections of Alder Lake shipping in 2022, but there were units on retail shelves in late 2021.
That said, it has been over a decade since they met the schedule for a new silicon process start-up. Even if they meet the currently published schedules for these processes they are several years behind the originally published schedules.
Alan
Me: Well, there is a product called Alder Lake now shipping. But is it the product originally announced with that name?
You: Yes.
If so, is Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) now (1) is still falling behind, but not as quickly, (2) no longer falling further behind but also not catching up, or (3) starting to catch up, relative to Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD)?
You are welcome to go check out reviews yourself, but the general consensus is Alder Lake outperforms AMD’s best. Intel is taking back volume in the high end gaming market.