Thanks Captain. I am trying to learn the standard first…and so might be some time before I get anywhere beyond that. I will look at the links you sent as well. Thank you.
Charlie
Thanks Leap1. Not sure where I see your advise or contradiction, but totally agree with doing one’s due diligence. And it is pretty easy if I just sit on my hands, esp when the macro is still not our friend.
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Beyond selling covered calls, you can also get some income from selling your shareholder votes or lending your shares. Might not be much but a few bips over a long time horizon can add up
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If I may paraphrase Ruth Langmore, I learned during the dot com bubble that stock analysts don’t know s*^t about f*^k. And I concluded that I also know about the same amount.
For example, ARK Investments CEO Cathie Wood is in the news almost every day, dispensing her wisdom about the hottest trends in stocks. Since inception in 2015, her flagship ARKK fund as returned a CAGR of 8.4% and has almost doubled. Not bad, but over the same period the Nasdaq (QQQ) had a CAGR of 15.6% and has more than tripled. Doing nothing is a powerful tool, it appears.
Armed with that lack of knowledge, I have simply invested primarily in low cost index funds and a small number of high conviction stocks of companies with strong earnings and moats, like BRK, GOOG, AAPL, etc. that I believe can be safely held for a long time. I have a smaller amount of lower conviction but high upside stocks that I monitor, but those are a pretty small percentage of my port (and hasn’t performed as well as the rest of it, it should be said).
Other than that, I don’t pay any attention to interest rates, debt ceiling deals, inflation, global pandemics, tech trends, or what Cathie Wood says. This strategy has worked out very well, allowing me to retire early last year at age 57 in the middle of a down market.
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Thank you… That’s where I am heading to as well…I am going primarily into index funds and Berkshire…with some TSLA and NVDA.
It is clear to me that no one really has the crystal ball…and we can make an educated guess at the best…
However, I could also see that if one is patient, opportunities arise now and then…
I already sold some of my individual low conviction/ no conviction stocks to buy SPY index, and am happy with that…I feel it may go down in the short term, but at least I don’t have to worry and be glued to the market all the time…and I am still none the wiser!
Thanks again,
Charlie
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Keep in mind I am completely unqualified to give any type of stock picking advice, even to myself, but both of those are low conviction stocks for me. NVDA is an eyewatering P/E of 200. AI will be a big thing, but it will take some epic growth for a long time to grow into that multiple. Other companies have done it, but woof. It is not a value play for sure. Keep in mind that companies like Google and Microsoft have already invested in AI in a huge way. That might be the way to go if you think AI is the investing future. A back door AI play might be to invest in big construction companies with operations in Ohio and Nebraska. Why? AI will require data centers. And all the big tech companies are scrambling like mad to build data centers in that region of the country. Like dozens and dozens of them.
Same kind of thing for TSLA. We don’t need another thread on TSLA, but in my estimation while TSLA has a very, very impressive head start in the EV space, that head start is eroding and will likely continue to erode, which will put pressure on their margins.
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Thanks again Syke6. No, I was not planning to buy them at this stage at all…I already had these two from before…TSLA still underwater, but NVDA is positive thanks to its monstrous run. The amount in these are very small…So, I just felt I can leave it that way, although any profit is still a profit and may be I should just sell the NVDA too. But if I have to be entirely honest, these are the 2 stocks which doubled in front of my eyes in less than few months( despite the fact that my TSLA position is still less than what I bought it for, but it was fascinating to see it go all the way to 100 and then to 200 in one month!!!..Ditto for NVDA…so, may be nothing but sentimental value!)
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Yes, because it is a market of stocks. Just like when you hear “the market” is overpriced, you can find individual stocks at a discount. Can be in a recession but a certain sector can benefit. Just look at Zoom, Peloton, etc, during the COVID recession.
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Wild guess Bitcoin and Ethereum by the end of summer will be going into a bull market.
I wont be investing in them. I do not advise investing in them. Do your own due diligence and then rethink all of your studying a few times over. I wont be advising or telling any of you the whys.