Well, it actually got down to 443 on Sept 7 which is close enough to my prediction. The following chart is an hourly showing all the marks I made on the previous chart as well as a placement for my prediction (B). But now the pattern since 9/1 has me a bit puzzled. You all know how I feel about volatility being bearish, even if you are moving upward. But the SPY chart since 9/1 has a lot of air in it.
I guess I feel like gaps are a form of extreme volatility. If you look at a daily chart of SPY or any big company that’s been around for a long time (smaller new high tech stocks don’t count because they are always volatile) and scroll back for years looking for different situations, you’ll find that volatility is generally higher during bear markets when prices are trending down and also during periods that could be considered major tops and bottoms. When prices break out of a consolidation bottom, they generally move up in a more organized trend with shorter candles and more gentle ups and downs and can move up this way for a long time. Then as they approach the top, the action gets more volatile then usually stays volatile as they roll over and trend downward to the next major bottom.
Anyway, 9/14 looked like a nice upspring from consolidation, going back to the early September range before the post-Labor Day dive. We may even set a new September high or even a new 52-week high which is only 1.8% away. But I might look at this as a high and look to play it going down because I just don’t feel too good about this chart.