Yesterday’s decline needed a gloomy mood,
Then today’s move up should bring optimism… 
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The six months leading up to 9/21/98 is the most correlated six-month period with the last six months for $SPY in our database.
I really do not remember Tariffs being at the center of 98. Wasn’t that the Tech Boom? If they stopped with the Tariff nonsense then yea, 1998 would be a great analogy to today.
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96% of the SP500 stocks were up today. Very strong breadth… It is risky to be negative. I hear you on tariff… What if we don’t get a recession?
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You weren’t saying that yesterday.
It is risky being bullish or bearish in this market. When a tweet can send it one way or the other. We are still below the 200sma and there is plenty of time to figure this market out. I think we are in a recession but who knows. If the market turns I will change my mind but one day does not make a trend. This is pure chop and could go either way.
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I am like a TV pundit, saying all things, bearish, bullish, miserable, euphoric… so you can always find me wrong or right!!! 
Kidding aside… here are my thoughts:
- If the tariffs are not resolved, we are going into recession
- I think I have mentioned this in the past, we will get to $550~$560, and then we will have retest; Pretty much that is what Jurrien Timmer post is talking; hence I shared it;
- While I am somewhat positive in the short-term, I expect market will decline and retest $480; but I am also open that market could just move sideways and move up;
- The soft data, and some hard data are weakening, this is concerning;
- So I am hoping market will decline, how far don’t know, and the economic weakness will show up in the data, and Fed will start the cutting cycle;
- That’s when I want to buy new long-position; In the meantime, if we get a decent bounce I might sell and build some cash;
- Unfortunately, I am fully invested and didn’t sell in Feb, and after this massive drawdown, I am price anchored
- I am not selling, and I am not breaking my treasuries/ CD/ Fixed income to buy anything now
- I also expect the market to be volatile, so be nimble with positions, don’t short, don’t go new long; use options, take loss/ profits quickly
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I think that is important. Trump is saying now that China Tariffs are going to drop substantially but when they are sitting at 145% what is substantially. But that could send the market up big time tomorrow.
Yes, that is a risk. Especially I think Trump blinked and he may walk back. So there will be a melt-up. But post melt-up, still 10% tariff is going to cause inflation…
May be Fed comes to rescue and we could continue to rally, but I don’t want to discount a possibility of retesting the low’s
Tough market. We will see.
Market will go up. If not, it will go down.
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I am back to 80 percent invested in the market. It looks to be doing better.
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lol, so many people are experts in market timing. Changing the tune day to day. Next week if the market goes down, they will sell again.
Buy High, Sell Low.
Are you talking about the President and his administration? Market rallied 14.5% in 13 days. Before commenting on people, tell me how normal these kind of market behavior is? Why are we having such gurations?
And you think people should not react? May be that works for you. You have 5, 10 year time horizon. I don’t have that kind of vision.
Before sounding so smug, have you considered on Apr 22nd, the day of my original post, 98.2% of SP500 stock moved up. Do you even know how rare that is?
These posts are not for very smart, stoic, person with 5, 10, 20 year vision. This is for folks who moved to cash, and looking for an opportunity to deploy cash. Often people think the market doesn’t ring a bell… so I am saying here is something I see it as “market ringing a bell”…
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He is down 30 percent for the year. I am up 5 percent now. I just wish I could be as smart as him.
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Buy high sell low is what market timers do. They lose on both ends but pretend to win.
What happened to “long lasting damage” and “1930 style depression for decades” and “moving funds to Europe” ?
Better to dollar cost average.
Your posts are completely detached from reality. Who bought high? How do you even know what we hold or what our cost basis are? When we sold anything?
You are just spitting some irrelevant nonsensical stuff. Your posts have no relevance to the topic.
Look at my posts on FXI. I talked about entry, and exit. Where is buy high and sell low in that? You are not adding value to the conversation, when you are not staying with the topic.
Why you think Trump walked back on his tariff? Why not stay the course? The european money has gone home, going home. Whether that will come back needs to be seen.
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You guys are changing tune from week to week.
If there is a market dip next week, I can guarantee that there will be a flood of negative posts next week about how many foresaw the market downturn and went into cash.
LOL Can’t stand losing to the market timers can you. Keep dollar cost averaging on ZM. It will come back someday. Can you imagine buying and holding this?
You must mean Trump.
You really have no clue on how to invest. The market tells you everything you need to know and the stocks you hold will tell you when to get in and out. Look at CELH and Elf. Great stocks, once upon a time.
The market moved up 5% last week or slightly more than that since my original post. In that, I said, I expect it to rally to $560~$570. I could move to cash, or sell some of the position I might have established expecting this rally. And go back to my cautious stand.
For someone from the distance it may seem that there is constant change of views. These kind of moves normally take months, is happening in days and in a week. So, you change your views also very quickly.
Of course smart people know to buy great companies and sit tight for years… Sure, there are action junkies like me who need to buy and sell something everyday. We are the deranged market, take advantage of us, and dont’ make us smart then the casino has to be shut down.
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