I had re-considered that I could be wrong about the market impact of this administration - that I was too pessimistic. I have reconfigured our portfolios to prioritize safety at the expense of growth. I’m glad I did. Granted - I could still be wrong… but I can live with myself with being wrong. The Time magazine article is so unnerving as to be surreal. I couldn’t write a script like that even for a dark comedy. It would be too ‘unrealistic’.
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Trade negotiations are very tricky and takes times, months, if not years. Trump is not negotiating with contractors where the relationship, power balance is very skewed. He may entertain that US vs other countries power balance is similar. But unlike a contractor who is desperate for business and takes transactional approach, countries take long term view and look at these conversations strategically.
The countries that want to have an early deal also may be expecting lots of concessions, and the progress, setback, progress, set back cycle is common. This also involves lot of leaked news to weaken the parties negotiating power. If I am a country negotiating with US, I will be deploying strategic leak of not making any progress to wring more concessions from US.
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You do realize the US consumers pay tariffs, right?
We are so screwed. That Trump interview. And people say Biden had dementia. Wowzers.
And to add more depressing news:
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Do you mean like saying you haven’t had any negotiations at all, despite what TFG says?
Nice. Our trade thingamabob is fixin’ to go kablooey. Lots of mom-and-pop shops 'bout to go kaboom.
It’s been 100 days…
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TIG only announces “wins”. If you don’t “win” an encounter, the encounter never happened.
Steve
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I suspect any country making a “deal” right now are small countries with very small GDP’s. Any country with a large economy isn’t going to make a deal right now.
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India/ Japan are is a large economies and wants to make a deal right now. Japan was willing to open the auto market but that was not enough is frustrating Japanese. The US expectation that they can bully India and make them accept US terms are non-starters. India may buy defense and planes from Boeing, but they are not going to open agricultural market. Even Trump knows without any deal he cannot declare victory. So he needs few deals done by 90 days and declare victory and move on. Then the economic weakness that is still going to follow, he can blame Jay Powell.
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Do They? Where is the deal then? I do not believe anything Trump says I need to see a document. It isn’t a deal if it is the same as before the Tariffs were put on or if we lose more. It’s only a deal if we actually get a deal.
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From what I’ve heard Japan asked the administration what they want, and they were unable to answer. We’ve thrown away trade deals before we even knew what we were hoping to achieve. Madness.
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Are you kidding or serious? US is actively talking with Japan and India. That doesn’t mean you are going to have a deal tomorrow, it is not like going to $MCD and ordering a burger. Like I said, it is going to take time. Trump created a timeline and now he is a prisoner of his own timeline.
At the least they need one or two deals and claim here is the template, and we will work country by country…
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Ha!
Make believe because Trump will spin something, “We are playing nice but maybe we should play rough”. To which the American public will once again see the “logic”.
Good comments other than this line. He is going to ignore any convention or rule he sets up.
Markets will hold him to his words on the 90 day… he absolutely need to strike a deal or two before that. Even Trump knows, if he could not deliver by then, he will take a huge hit to his credibility and that is not bad…
You guys wake up and dramatically create a new doomsday scenario everyday and on your knees begging China to do something.
Stop lurching from day to day tantrums Like it or not, it is going to be a bright future under Trump.
Meanwhile:
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We’re not the ones creating a new doomsday scenario. The heads of the major retailers (like Walmart and Target) met with Trump earlier this week to specifically warn him that this is coming down the pike.
And really, dividends20 - do you have any reason to believe that we’re not going to see goods shortages? The tariffs that are currently in place with China are not in dispute - they’re more than 100% That’s high enough to actually be an embargo. It ends trade with China, for the most part (at least while it’s in effect). Port traffic in Los Angeles has fallen by 30%.
This isn’t some made-up scenario about the future - the retailers are saying it, and we’re already seeing it happening. There’s a little bit of surplus in the supply chain built up in warehouses…but in a few weeks, it’s going to be used up. This is coming.
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I’m not sure TIG is a prisoner of any “rule”.
He doesn’t seem to adhere to any rules.
ralph
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I am as serious as a heart attack. Like Bjurasz said. Japan said they didn’t know what Trump wanted so they couldn’t even begin. Didn’t you read that?
** * Despite early White House signals suggesting a trade deal with Japan was imminent, negotiations in Washington, D.C., ended without an agreement, highlighting Japan’s ongoing concerns and reluctance to concede ahead of domestic elections. Conflicting messages from U.S. officials and resistance from global partners like China suggest bilateral trade talks will be protracted, casting doubt on President Trump’s ambitious “90 deals in 90 days” goal.**
As Far as India, it just started. Who knows what is going to happen.
Indian and US officials have commenced formal discussions in Washington on a proposed bilateral trade agreement, aiming to resolve outstanding issues across 19 chapters. The US seeks enhanced market access and lower tariffs, addressing its trade deficit with India, which reached USD 45.7 billion in 2024.
Also remember, Trump said they were talking to China?
** China denies any suggestion it is currently in talks with the US over tariffs**
so, Yea I don’t believe anything until I see the Document. Nobody knows anything yet.
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I’m sure they’d like to make a deal, but the terms have been designed such that no deal is possible. Japan has a VAT and the VAT has been declared a barrier to trade. Even if they wanted to, it isn’t possible for Japan to completely reconfigure its tax system in less than 90 days.
Similarly, rice is a staple in Japan and Japan has high tariffs on rice. That’s certainly a trade barrier, but it is in place to protect their domestic food supply. They can probably bend a little here, but it is a national security issue, so there won’t be a lot of give.
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I am not sure where is the miscommunication. I didn’t say the deal is imminent, and deals typically take much longer time… instead US and Trump needs a deal before the 90 day window. Also, I mentioned " the process is going to up and down, noisy".
Many countries finance ministers are/ were in DC recently. I am sure US administration and the countries have either formally, informally talked given the tariff situation. So, Trump could be telling half truths. Trump was very cautious in his statements. Read those statements as jaw-boning the market sentiment and not an assurance or an indicator that a deal is going to be signed any moment.
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I am not arguing with you King I just have a different perspective on what is going on. I hope it all works out great because I have been buying back into the market. I just do not see it the same way as you.
And I’m not sure he needs any “deals” to be signed within the 90 days. If we and another country even just agree on an overall framework for ongoing discussions, he’ll claim victory and declare that a “deal” worth crowing over.
What matters more is whether he brings the punitive tariffs back in 70 days (or however many are left). If he gets discussions with enough countries to the point where he can declare victory and say that the tariffs aren’t coming back, that will get the markets a lot more comfortable - whether there’s an actual deal or not.
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