Israel/Iran War to send US inflation above 4% for 2026

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
1

… apparently there’s a quart of $7/gal diesel in almost everything we buy.

At least my Social Security check will be bigger bext year with the larger inflation adjustment.

From the NY Times.

{{ The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned on Thursday that the war would push up inflation in the United States to 4.2 percent this year, more than a percentage point higher than its previous forecast. A resurgence in inflation would make it more unlikely that Federal Reserve would cut interest rates this year, an expectation that feeds into higher bond yields — and mortgage rates. }}

intercst

4 Likes
2

Here is a snippet that is not behind a paywall that I posted elsewhere.

If you read it, you will see that they prognosticate a drop in inflation in 2027 as well as reduced gdp.

2 Likes
3

Remember, a “drop in inflation” doesn’t mean prices go down – it just means that they rise at a slightly lower rate.

You’re never going to get back that $7/gal diesel.

intercst

5 Likes
4

That’s what happens when you devalue the currency by borrowing too much instead of earning the cash.

My 1964 Corvette Stingray cost only $5,000 (in 1964 dollars).
It was the most expensive car back then.

Devaluation, devaluation, devaluation!

The Captain

1 Like
5

This is the US/ Iran/ Israel war, not the “Israel/ Iran War.” Last I looked the U.S. was the dominant actor.

Wendy

6 Likes
6

The US made a decision to enter this. Big boy time. Not little bigot time.

Trump has more or less wanted war with Iran since 2015.

7

Marco Rubio told us that the US jumped in protect US troops stationed in the Middle East after being surprised by Israel’s assassination raid on the Ayatollah – there didn’t seem to be much coordination with our “ally” .

This war is not in the US interest – and Americans should be angry that they’re paying for it in defense spending and now, inflation and increased gas prices.

Now Iran is telling Trump that they will attack all the desalination plants in the Middle East if Trump attacks Iran’s power grid. World War III is closing in on us. It doesn’t require a “nuke” – just doing the bidding of another country’s leader.

intercst

4 Likes
8

Chicken little just passed by.