One more thing Quill on the article Swing Trade Ideas I see that BTC is in the blue so I assume that means it might be something to look at?
Andy
Oh I think I understand now
If you jam it to left, technically you are altering the duration, right?
For example, I would guess the arcs will definitely move based on how you move the chart, despite you keeping it as a 2 month duration
I believe the original idea that Quill uses is only the 2 month, no jamming and swing trade
I am sure he has jammed it to left but used that probably does that for a very short trades??? that would need one to be very nimble…you are capable, so I am not surprised…but if you do that, I think it would be requiring you to come out keeping the chart in the same jammed position and coming out asap and when it shows the opposite arc…I never tried that,
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That could be Charlie, That might be where I am misunderstanding this.
Thank you,
Andy
You know Charlie I have been thinking about this. If you have a stock in an uptrend and it is climbing to the right you will never get a smiley face telling you that a low is in. It will always be behind you. But if I do as you suggest and a stock is in a down trend or sideways movement it would work. So in an uptrend you would always have to jam it to the left. Just a thought
Andy
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Very true…I haven’t tried, but my guess is if we put the RSI as well in a pane, I wonder if we might see this - If we follow Quills method and buy only with the low arc, I would bet that the RSI is definitely not overbought…if anything it should be near oversold…So, in a way, it may be a mechanism of preventing bigger losses…Having said that, if a stock is in huge uptrend, you are right in that we may not get a chance…
But, and I am sure Arindam and Quill both may agree, do we really want to go chasing something which has already left the gate a long time back…Unless you know you have a huge winner which has just started its uptrend…And that is where your fundamental analysis may help.
Alternatively, again I am guessing, buying stocks in a uptrend is a great way for short term trading - more likely for those to go up than down, as long as you book your profits…but my past is making it difficult for me to do that…I think I should start, and likely will do soon after I clear my head!
Charlie,
You need to pick a role model. One role model, not two. Your choices are either Ben Graham or Wm O’Neil. That’s it. Everyone else is simply a variation of one or the other.
If Graham, then you’re trying to buy low and sell high and depending on ‘mean-reversion’ to make you your money. If O’Neil, then you’re buying high with intention to sell higher, and you’re depending on ‘momentum’ to make you your money. (Yeah, yeah. There are variations like GARP that Lynch preached and practiced --quite successfully. But he is really in the Graham camp though he claimed to be price-agnostic, which would put him in O’Neil’s camp. So, maybe, there is a third path to profits, )
In either case --and in all cases-- what makes an investor (or trader) his/her money is just two things: a sound plan and the discipline to execute it, which is a point that Schwager drives home in his books featuring ‘Market Wizards’ where traders doing the seemingly opposite of each other are both making money. Why? Because their systems weren’t borrowed, but were built on who they are as a person.
There’s a trader’s proverb that goes like this: “If you don’t know who you are, stock markets are an expensive place to find out.” But the Catch-22 of that is this. Unless you engage markets and take a beating or two or three, you won’t discover what kind of investor/trader you could be. Some people never learn, never settle down, and endlessly chase rainbows. Others wise up pretty quickly and pretty quickly realize that this investing/trading stuff is a lot a hard work, but that it’s both doable and necessary. So they set some goals and then make them happen for themselves.
I hate to keep hammering on Quill. But a further point needs to be made. He’s good on tacitcs, but sucks on strategy. ‘Simon Sez’ is merely a low-level tactic that can be worked out on the fly and needs to be changed as conditions change. But ‘Simon Sez’ is NOT --and cannot be-- a "one-size-fits-all’ method or model, because each investor (or trader) is unique in his/her fears, hopes, goals, means, needs, skills, and opportunities. The strategy stuff, the "big picture stuff’ stuff, is what few get right for themselves. Hence, they’re not centered, not anchored, and they go chasing after the newest, shiniest thing, never really succeeding at much of anything.
When life has ended and you’ve reached the pearly gates of Traders’ Heaven, the gatekeeper isn’t going to ask the size of your account. She’s going to ask, “Did you trade your plan?”
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Well I’ve got books from both of them. If I ever get time to read them completely I’ll be doing good! And maybe even know enough to choose.
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