Hi Karen, great thoughts, though I think you give me far too much credit on the analysis front!
I don’t have a specific timeline for the investment: I’ll hold for as long as I think my thesis is playing out and the stock doesn’t seem priced unreasonably high relative to ongoing performance; and if I decide I’m wrong, I’ll sell and reallocate that capital to something else. It’s 3% of my portfolio.
I think all of the concerns people have mentioned are quite legitimate, and clearly the market shares many of them. I think the market is also very concerned about the Euro, as the KORS growth story is really about Europe and Asia (minus China): North America is already mature in most categories (like hand bags), though some newer categories are still experiencing rapid growth (like shoes).
But unless KORS is going out of business, I think the stock is too cheap. I could be wrong, of course! As I said, it’s 3% of my portfolio, so I’m managing that risk through allocation.
Neil