We are not in Kansas any more.
The American Revolution is ending.
Don’t say much. Your neighbor will turn you in.
I used my papers during covid when nobody could buy paper. But that is exactly what the papers were worth.
It still appears to be about 70% chance.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
I think you meant 61%, down from 64% last week. Edit: Oh, I see you are including those that think we will have a 50 basis cut. Got it.
And let’s be clear, this chart does not reflect “chance”, it reflects the opinion of futures traders, who have been known to be wrong. At best, I think this reflects sentiment.
If I knew how to best against a rate increase, I would probably make that best, especially if I was given someth9ing list 2:1 (70/30) odds.
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Dear Mark,
I am not sure what you are intellectually holding onto.
It is over for the global economy
As far as I am aware, the fedwatch tool is measuring movement of real money in [interest rate] futures and options on those futures. If you want to “bet”, you can trade the futures appropriately, though maybe most people would trade the options on the futures instead (because of greater ease?). At 70/30, you could “bet” against the 70 to some extent, and definitely make some money if you get the timing correct.
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It is. They are not always correct.
Well outside my expertise.
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From the “how to make friends and influence people” department -
“There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW,” the president posted on his social media website Truth Social Monday morning, saying that “‘Preemptive Cuts’ in Interest Rates are being called for by many.”
“… before my trade policies stoke inflation, that is.”
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Well, of course! If they were always correct, there would be no “market”, and nobody could ever make any money on those futures and options! The whole idea is that it represents the average opinion of all the people who take part in that market. Those who feel that that average is wrong will “bet” in the opposite direction and if correct (both directionally and temporally), will “win” the trade.