https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until USDL-24-1817
8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, September 6, 2024
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION – AUGUST 2024
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in construction and health care.
Household Survey Data
Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in August. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million.
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 over the month. Employment growth in August was in line with average job growth in recent months but was below the average monthly gain of 202,000 over the prior 12 months. In August, job gains occurred in construction and
health care.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 61,000, from +179,000 to +118,000, and the change for July was revised down by 25,000, from +114,000 to +89,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 86,000 lower than previously reported. [end quote]
The unemployment rate counts only active job seekers. The labor force participation rate (which includes everyone over age 18 whether or not they are seeking employment) remained at 62.7 percent in August and is little changed over the year. The employment-population ratio also was unchanged in August, at 60.0 percent, but is down by 0.4 percentage point over the year.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/06/business/jobs-report-august-economy
What to know about the latest report.
by Lydia DePillis, The New York Times, 9/6/2024
Wages came in stronger than expected: Average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent in August from the previous month, or 3.8 percent from a year earlier, muddying a picture of declining labor demand. The average workweek also ticked up, indicating that workers are getting more hours.
Sector growth has narrowed even more: The industries adding significant numbers of jobs in August were health care and social assistance, food and drinking establishments, and construction, which has remained surprisingly resilient in the face of high interest rates. Manufacturing has not been so resilient, and shed 24,000 jobs… [end quote]
This is a lukewarm report. Consistent with this week’s PMI report, manufacturing is declining. The report is not recessionary since job growth is still consistent with pre-Covid rates although not robust.
The Fed will undoubtedly cut the fed funds rate by at least 0.25% this month. Will the somewhat weak jobs report cause them to cut by 0.5%? That’s what the markets would like to know. It’s not clear since slow but consistent growth is not the same as recession and may not indicate a coming recession.
Wendy