In 2023 there were 2 jobs for every job seeker. The job surplus has ebbed and is now 1:1.
The Federal Reserve is keeping a close watch on this. In the past the Fed has cut rates pre-emptively to juice the economy when jobs weakened. This time they are in a quandary since the inflation rate is higher than they want.
The options market is now giving a 95% probability of a fed funds rate cut in September.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Wendy