Well, January has turned out to be a roller-coaster of a month. It began really well, and by mid January I was up by 9% or so. But then, in the last 2 weeks of the month (and especially in the last few days) things took a turn for the worse. I ended this first month of the year actually down by 5.1%. It marks the 3rd full month in a row now of negative returns. My new ATH was reached at the very end of October 2025.
I finished out 2025 (my best year ever in terms of investing) at +117%.
Here are my results YTD.
2024 +70%
2025 +117%
2026
January -5.1%
I made one major change in my portfolio at the beginning of the month, which I talked about on another thread, and that was to sell my long standing holding in Nvidia and to put all of the proceeds into Micron.
Nvidia has been an incredible performer for me - and I was reluctant to sell it. But as I stipulated on the other thread, I have a hard time to see it triple from here (though it might still possibly double), whereas Micron at a much smaller MC could very well double or triple much sooner. Indeed since buying it at the end of the first week of January it has already gone up nearly 30%, and as I needed the funds to buy it I sold Nvidia.
Here is what my portfolio now looks like:
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Nebius (NBIS): 23%
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AppLovin (APP): 17%
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Celestica (CLS): 15%
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Astera Labs (ALAB): 13%
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IREN (IREN): 13%
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Micron (MU): 12%
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Electro Optic Systems (EOS): 8%
Here are the YTD gains (losses) of my current holdings.
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Nebius (NBIS): up 3.4%
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AppLovin (APP): down 27%!!
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Celestica (CLS): down 3.4%
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Astera Labs (ALAB): down 8.7%
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IREN (IREN): up 35%
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Micron (MU): up 51%
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Electro Optic Systems (EOS): down 13.8%
The only company that has reported so far is Celestica. I wrote about it, along with others, on a different thread below on the day that they reported.
https://discussion.fool.com/t/celestica-q4-results/123113/3
I was very impressed with their report. They had their best results ever - with total revenue up 44%. This is incredible for this company and represents their best ever YoY performance. On top of that their CCS revenue (which represents 78% of their total) grew 64%. Their Non GAAP EPS was up 70%, showing they are becoming ever more profitable as they scale in revenue.
The market seemed to punish it for it’s plans to increase Capex to $1B - but they made very clear in the release and on the call that this will all be funded organically from operating cash flow. Rob Mionis, CEO, said (bolding mine):
“Our financial performance in the fourth quarter was very strong, with revenue of $3.65 billion and adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)* of $1.89, both exceeding the high end of our guidance ranges. We had a solid finish to 2025, achieving revenue of $12.4 billion, up 28%, while our adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)* grew 56% year-over-year,” said Rob Mionis, President and CEO of Celestica. “Driven by very strong results in 2025, and improved momentum into 2026, we are pleased to be raising our annual outlook.
As demand for AI-related data center technologies continues to strengthen, we now expect revenue of $17.0 billion and adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)* of $8.75 for 2026.” “We are continuing to align with our largest customers on their multi-year capacity roadmaps in support of their long-term AI infrastructure investments. We believe the revenue growth trajectory that we anticipate in 2026 will be sustained into 2027, and as a result, we are strategically increasing our planned capital investments to $1 billion this year. Importantly, we anticipate being able to fully fund this expansion organically through our operating cash flow.”
AppLovin has taken the biggest hit in my portfolio over this past month or so. I cannot think of any other company that I own that has been hit by so many short reports as they have. The company have once again come out and said there is no substance to the latest short report. But it has once again caused the stock to decrease significantly.
There also seems to be a lot of fear about Google’s latest announcement of Project Genie. As I understand this - this is an AI tool that is currently only open to a small group of people. It is not yet in general release. Those who have tried it say it is incredible. Apparently, it can generate interactive worlds from text prompts, which has triggered a sharp sell off in gaming companies. I do not play games myself - but there seems to be a general fear that Genie will massively disrupt the gaming market - which of course (if that is so) would remove the vehicle that APP is currently most using to market their ads.
But I do not think there is reason to fear for the following reasons:
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Genie is still in developmental phase and is only available to a few people.
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Genie’s emphasis (I think) is on game development, so it is possible that APP could actually benefit from more games being created by Genie.
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APP is moving more and more into e-commerce - and this is set to be an increasing portion of its revenue going forward. The gaming market is obvisouly still huge for APP - but e-commerce will begin to take more and more of the pie going forward.
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If there are any dangers to APP I think they are a long way off - and once again it looks to me at least, like the market has over-reacted once again to this news.
I am looking forward to APP’s earnings on Feb 11 when hopefully they will be able to clear up any misunderstandings about these latest fears.
And I am looking forward to all of my other companies soon to report this week and next as well. I will have more to say on them in my end of Feb update.
Best,
Jonathan