Just saying... Tech excess valuation may be closer to end

The tech valuations have came down so far… now there are many good stock at cheap valuations. What are some of your favorite tech names? NO APPLE, GOOGLE, MSFT, META, BABA.

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I owned Ansys a long time ago and sold too early. Not exactly cheap, but it never really is. I just might pick up a little and see what happens.



Following Jim’s advice, just purchasing a large chunk and planning to sit on it for a decade or so.


Interesting. What are some of the risks this company is facing?

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I don’t know about “tech” but I do know GOOGL is no brainer. Pls refer to WEB and CTM past comments on COMPANY and now the valuation is right.

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Reuters) - One of Warren Buffett’s and Charlie Munger’s biggest regrets was not buying shares of Google owner Alphabet Inc.

“I don’t mind not having caught Amazon early,” Munger said. “The guy (Jeff Bezos) is kind of a miracle worker, it’s very peculiar. … But I feel like a horse’s a#$ for not identifying Google earlier … We screwed up.”

Buffett and Munger were asked if Berkshire Hathaway’s investing philosophy had changed given that one of Berkshire’s portfolio managers recently bought shares of Amazon.comInc.

Todd Combs and Ted Weschler manage roughly $26 billion of Berkshire’s investments.

Munger said he and Buffett saw how great search engine optimization was used in its Berkshire-owned GEICO and “we just sat there sucking our thumbs.”


“Google has a huge
new moat. In fact
I’ve probably never
seen such a wide
moat. Their moat is
filled with sharks.”
-=- Charlie Munger,

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Google search is a per-se monopoly. Add in YouTube and the ad placement network and you have two, maybe three monopolies. At some point, and I likely expect it to come from Europe rather than here since they still seem to care about such things, I would put “regulatory risk” on the “Google is a no-brainer” pile.


I’m curious, how were you kicked off the old board?
Looked to me like you just stopped posting.

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aha, you were kicked out!!! That too for talking about energy?! interesting. There were significant discussion on OXY.

Chompinchuck, I used to think you were above making a joke about someone who was assaulted with a hammer. Did I misunderstand your comment?


I haven’t looked at ANSS in detail for a long time and my analysis probably wouldn’t be worth much. So, you’ll have to dig for yourself. Risks for ANSS: Is earnings/revenue growth of around 15% (maybe) worth a 41 p/e and will they face more competition which will stunt growth?

Interesting, most if not all stocks in tech universe has gained from Oct low’s but not GOOGL. Hmmm may be there is no such thing as “no brainer”.

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What are your thoughts on GOOG ?

I think they will come out with a compelling chatGPT competitor (Bard), probably better since they have the data (digital books, science publications, real time data etc). However, some erosion of search/ads to Bing is inevitable.

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I am not concerned that GOOGL will lose AI war, rather the cost of AI. AI requires significant compute capacity, Google is the top leader in search, if AI is adopted on a bigger scale, then cost per search will go up. I don’t think Google will be able to recoup that in ad $$$. This will drag margins down for the next few years, until it stabilizes. I could be wrong here, but margins is something I will keep an eye.

Separately, we haven’t seen any new breakthrough products which will drive future growth.


Agree. Lack of new products is a problem. $100B in the bank, all the creme de la creme human capital employed with limited results.

Now Tesla has taken over the HP building in the valley and going to take advantage of the talent released by layoffs.

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> I am not concerned that GOOGL will lose AI war,

Well the current trend is that AI is going to disrupt search a fair bit. When using a Chat bot, how do you show paid search? How will content providers feel about not showing up organically and instead having a bot summarizing their content?

I have no doubt that Googles core business is going to look much different 5 years from now. I can only hope its as profitable.


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Fairly straight forward. There are github codes available, that easy. The ad model itself is not going to be disrupted. Don’t forget MSFT is not a charity, all the players need to make money because there is a significant cost behind AI.

I am not so sure either. I am only concerned about their margin hit, not the ad-business itself going to go away. They are wishful thinking.

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Divi, slightly OT for the discussion.

separately, you may want to follow Arvind. They are doing some interesting work on debunking AI promises, especially one of his RA.