Also the market can be driven up even if the China Tariff agreements is a nothing burger just like the UK. But eventually the market will figure it out. While we really are not having huge volatility it doesn’t mean we can’t. Stay engaged with the market by watching what is happening. If we get good news and the market heads down that would be a red flag. If we get good news and the market stays flat that would be a red flag.
I don’t try to predict the market I just follow along. But nobody knows what Trump will say tomorrow or next week so if we go up I will be happy, if we go down I will be ready.
The move since that post is strong. We have almost had a v shape recovery. While i am not yet seeing any weakness, like breadth, etc, I am paring some of the puts, I have placed. On Hindsight, I should have bought calls but I was too chicken. I want to have some flexibility and cash to take care of any opportunity.
Might be better to go with funds like the TQQQ and SQQQ in times of volatility, You might be able to get in and out a lot faster. I am fully invested and it looks like we are in the clear but I am still keeping an eye on it.
Housing weakness is pretty pronounced. The existing home sales are also weak. Given the mortgage rates are around 7% and the average interest rate of existing mortgages are around 3%, this is showing up in inventory and the sales data.
Generally, markets cannot rally when housing is doing so poorly. The recent exception is AI, AI Capex lifted the economy and the market.
Now, we are having double whammy of tariffs and Housing. Again markets bottom way ahead of recession. I am not predicting market will decline or we are going to have recession. But pointing some data points to watch.
Today we have seen the momentum stocks like $PLTR and of course $TSLA are breaking down. It may be a nothingburger, however, I am closing some positions especially the options that I are within 5% to 10% of strike price.
Just want to close some position and be in a position if we get a mini pullback.
