..Keep Running!..

…my apologies if some may feel this post is off topic for this board, as it doesn’t include any company specific information…

…however, I believe it’s spot on with regard to specific stocks Saul et al. have discovered here…

…this article, Jun 30, 2020 by Morgan Housel, identifies the parallels between the chances of a species for evolutionary survival, and business survival, and how the metrics for corporate valuation are ever changing, hence the “Keep Running” title…

You’d think a new species discovering its niche would be fragile and susceptible to extinction – let’s say a 10% chance of extinction in a given period – while an old species had proven its might, and has, say, a 0.01% chance of extinction.

But when Van Valen plotted extinctions by a species’ age, it looked more like a straight line.

Some species survived a long time. But among groups of species, the probability of extinction was roughly the same whether it was 10,000 years old or 10 million years old.


There are 32 million businesses in the United States. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks how many of them die each year, and how old they were at death.

Dig through the numbers and one thing’s clear: there is no age at which business gets easy.


In his book Investing, Robert Hagstrom wrote about strategies that once worked but eventually withered:

In the 1930s and 1940s, the discount-to-hard-book-value strategy was dominant. After World War II and into the 1950s, the second major strategy that dominated finance was the dividend model. By the 1960s investors exchanged stocks paying high dividends for companies expected to grow earnings. By the 1980s a fourth strategy took over. Investors began to favor cash-flow models over earnings models. Today it appears that a fifth strategy is emerging: cash return on invested capital.




Thank you for sharing the article. Morgan is a great writer.

This part of the article really reminds me of what Saul and this group is all about:

There is never a point where a company can indefinitely coast along, cashing the chips of past success. Everyone has to keep running.

Same for investing strategies.

It’s easy to think investing is like physics, with set laws that never change. But it’s not. It’s like Van Valen’s evolution, where “success” is just a brief respite before the next competitor shows up and old skill becomes meaningless.

This is why buy-and-hold is so fragile and also why we must monitor our companies constantly, especially when they announce their quarterly results. It’s a lot of work if you follow 10-15 companies; to dive deep many times a year… but it works! The beauty of this group is the work is crowdsourced. There are many eyes looking for clues and sharing. It’s actually genius when you think about it!

Thank you to Saul for creating this group, TMF for hosting it and for the many participants that make it invaluable!


The beauty of this group is the work is crowdsourced.

It is not just that it is crowdsourced, in the sense of distributing the work over a large number of people, but that there is a rich diversity of expertise, style, and opinion which makes for a far richer and insightful result.


“This is why buy-and-hold is so fragile and also why we must monitor our companies constantly, especially when they announce their quarterly results.“

My three biggest holdings and stocks I’ve held since the early 2000s are AMZN, AAPL, NFLX. I can’t count how many times I could have sold them after a questionable quarterly report, or a warning or a downgrade. With the help of MF I held and held and continue to hold. How have they done for me? Incredibly well. Phenomenal.

Even just looking back to the beginning of 2016, when the first cloud names were just starting to show their wings, those three names have done very well. Maybe even incredibly well.

On a historic move today for AMZN as it crosses the 3000 per share mark, looking back to 2016 when I last added shares, the price just 4 years ago was 550 a share. I’m not sure I can complain about a move from 550 to 3000 in a tech giant in AMZN. Simply mind blowing. NFLX has had a similar move and even AAPL has blown the market away.

So yea the cloud names are fantastic and having an active eye on your portfolio is key, but sometimes people make the mistake of cutting way too early in great companies. I made the mistake of selling SHOP way too early, sold TTD a month ago at 357 and MELI about 600 points ago.

Still learning.



An acquisition-focused conglomerate, they let their businesses run independently, with some coaching from the home office

Hi Database Bob,
Roper Technology, as you describe it, is completely off topic for our board for obvious reasons, and I have asked that your post be deleted. Please follow the Rules of the Board.