Key to EV Transition is AFFORDABILITY

[captainccs]

@albaby1

Well, we were talking about robotaxis - not Teslas.

This thread is about EV affordability. Who, besides Tesla, is mass producing dedicated robotaxis and an ecosystem to affordably manage them?

@albaby1

But are those batteries going to significantly change Teslas cost structure?

Yes.

@albaby1

How much will they reduce the cost of a battery pack for their cars?

Musk said that it won’t reduce battery costs in half, but it will significantly reduce them.

GoogleAI:

The dry battery electrode (DBE) process cuts overall cell production costs by nearly half (up to 40–50%). This reduction in cell costs translates to a battery pack savings of roughly $5,500 for a single vehicle (such as a Tesla Model Y). [1, 2, 3]

Key Savings Drivers

• Capital & Footprint: Removing wet chemical coatings reduces initial factory and equipment investments by over 40% and shrinks the physical factory footprint by up to 50%.

• Energy Consumption: Eliminating the need to evaporate toxic wet solvents reduces coating-process energy use by up to 85%.

• Production Speed: Dry-coating technology speeds up cell production significantly compared to conventional wet-coating methods. [1, 2, 3]

Explore deeper analyses on how these cell-production breakthroughs impact mass-market pricing on the IEEE Spectrum analysis or review production efficiencies via Not a Tesla App. [1]

Tesla’s Dry Cathode Breakthrough Will Drastically Reduce Battery Costs [Musk...

Highlight: These Gen 2 cells are already being used for select Model Y vehicles produced in Austin, with a wider rollout for the Cybertruck, Cybercab, and Semi expected throughout 2026 and 2027.

Comment: A Tesla blogger mentioned that the process will also be used in the Berin Gigafactory where water usage is a concern. Sorry, I don’t have a link.

Irony: CATL founder said it was impossible!

GoogleAI:

CATL founder Robin Zeng recently declared Elon Musk’s 4680 battery cell strategy “is going to fail and never be successful” during a heated debate. Zeng stated that Musk simply “doesn’t know how to make a battery” and frequently overpromises on unrealistic development timelines. [1]

Zeng’s specific criticisms centered on fundamental electrochemistry: [1]

• Structural Flaws: Zeng argued that cylindrical 4680 cells are far more expensive and slower to manufacture.

• Unrealistic Timelines: Musk often claims an innovation will take two years when it realistically requires five.

• Electrochemistry over Hype: Zeng emphasized that battery production is not just about mechanical or software ingenuity, but requires strict adherence to chemistry, an area where CATL dominates globally.[1, 2]

CATL is currently the world’s largest EV battery manufacturer, supplying industry giants like Tesla. For more details on the feud, check out the full CleanTechnica Report.

The Captain

[albaby1]

@captainccs

Who, besides Tesla, is mass producing dedicated robotaxis and an ecosystem to affordably manage them?

Pony.ai, in partnership with Toyota, for one - over a thousand so far, and aiming for a true mass volume production by end of 2026:

Pony.ai and Toyota launch mass-produced robotaxis | Automotive World

For two, there’s Baidu - which has been producing its RT6 Apollo Go car since late 2024, and has a fleet of several thousand in place:

Apollo Go - Wikipedia

For three, Telsa hasn’t even reached that point yet, where they’re mass producing dedicated robotaxis . They’ve just built the production line. They haven’t reached mass production volume. It would be foolish beyond belief for them to do so, since unlike Pony.ai, they don’t have any place to deploy mass production levels of vehicles. Their fleet is barely a few dozen vehicles. Which is why Tesla has signalled quite clearly that mass production levels won’t come until 2027. Zoox is already at that point also - they’ve got two production plants in California, producing bespoke robotaxis (though also at somewhat lower volumes):

Zoox opens new purpose-built robotaxi production facility [Video]

…and Waymo has their own manufacturing facility in place for their first mass-produced for-purpose robotaxi, just doing low level production for testing purposes:

Waymo’s next-gen robotaxi is ready for passengers — and also ‘high-volume production’ | The Verge

Which means Tesla is doing what everyone else is doing. When the fleets get large enough that mass production volume has a place to be deployed, that’s when they’ll mass produce. That’s the business plan for all the companies. Tesla just decided to build their factory and claim “mass production” a year or two before they’re actually going to use it for mass production.

@captainccs

This reduction in cell costs translates to a battery pack savings of roughly $5,500 for a single vehicle (such as a Tesla Model Y).

That would be significant for purchasers of a vehicle, though it doesn’t seem that there’s any strong evidence it will be that much. Musk only confirmed that it’s less than half, not that it’s that much. The three links in the AI chunk don’t support that claim - one is just a report on Musk’s statement, the second is from 2022 predicting big cost savings, and the third is just from an executive of a company that’s trying to make money selling this process. As always, it’s possible the number might be that high, but there’s not really support for it.

But more to the point, it wouldn’t affect the cost structure of robotaxis very much. $5K in savings over 200,000 miles of useful life is only about $0.025 cents per mile. The sort of small amount that’s going to be dwarfed by the operating costs of the system. Sure, every little bit contributes - but that level of cost difference isn’t really enough to differentiate a service based on price, or to bring those costs down close to rideshare.

[tjscott0]

@captainccs

This thread is about EV affordability. Who, besides Tesla, is mass producing dedicated robotaxis and an ecosystem to affordably manage them?

Hyundai-Waymore Partnership

Hyundai will be producing the IONIQ 5 at its Megaplant, then shipping it over to Waymo partner Magna for upfitting with all the Waymo tech. Hyundai’s lead for ADAS and autonomous driving shared with CleanTechnica that Hyundai’s part of the puzzle would be about 90% of the build, with the remaining 10% being the upfitted parts from Magna. They expect production to begin by the end of 2026. The upfitting includes Waymo’s signature sensor stack that gets afixed to the top of the vehicle and serv…

[captainccs]

@albaby1

But more to the point, it wouldn’t affect the cost structure of robotaxis very much. $5K in savings over 200,000 miles of useful life is only about $0.025 cents per mile.

A few posts back unknown expenses were a problem. Now that you have a number of the battery savings, it’s no longer important. Interesting goal post moves.

I guess we’ll just have to wait to see who survives.

The Captain

[albaby1]

@captainccs

A few posts back unknown expenses were a problem. Now that you have a number of the battery savings, it’s no longer important. Interesting goal post moves.

It’s not moving the goal post. It’s the same point I made upthread. It’s that the number isn’t very big. As noted above, it’s unlikely to be anything as large as $5K. And even $5K over a 200,000 mile useful life is barely a few pennies per mile. That’s going to be trivial in terms of the cost of a robotaxi ride. Especially since all the EV manufacturers are making progress in improving the cost effectiveness of their batteries - not just Tesla.

As you seem to be unaware, all of the major players in robotaxis are in a position to be able to switch to large volume production of purpose-built robotaxis within the next 1-2 years. The largest robotaxi fleets right now are Waymo (~3000), Pony.ai (~1,700 but guiding to 3,500 by year-end), WeRide (1,000), and Baidu/Apollo Go (1,000). All of them have manufacturing facilities stood up and ready to enter mass-volume production once they have a place to deploy the taxis into service. But their fleets are already an order of magnitude or two higher than Tesla’s (a few dozen), so it makes economic sense for them to start low-level production now.

Tesla’s just doing it far earlier than they need to - if you only deploy a few dozen cars in your fleet, then you don’t save any money by doing a purpose-built car rather than a retooled Model Y.

Given that these cars will have useful lives of more than 200,000 miles, it’s pretty unlikely that any robotaxis will be able to differentiate themselves based on the cost of the vehicle, let alone the cost of the battery. Once they enter the phase where the vehicles are mass-produced purpose-built robotaxis, rather than handcrafted artisanal ones, then they’ll all converge close enough in price that it won’t matter.

[Goofyhoofy]

@captainccs

My main interest in Tesla is as an investment. I also happen to like cars, technology, and people who rise from rags to riches, not because these are nice people but because they are successful. And I dislike people trying to destroy businesses for political reasons.

I am entirely capable of admiring Henry Ford’s achievement while recognizing his terrible human flaws. Likewise Thomas Edison. I don’t need “a political reason” to dislike them personally, although I’m certainly happy for their industrial accomplishments.

So it is with Musk, who I find a loathsome person, even as I acknowledge what he has accomplished in different fields. Perhaps it’s endemic to people who have had this level of success to be such twaddles: Steve Jobs was likewise a terrible boss, terrible father, self-centered and unkind human - traits shared in one way or another by Jeff Bezos, Jack Welch, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Morgan and others.

But you should try not to deflect every criticism “because you like him”; it’s possible to admire someone’s work and detest them at the same time. (I would just also note that history is full of people who were ultra-successful, but who ended up at the bottom rather than the top. I just read a short biography of the guy who founded General Motors. William Durant: founded the corporation, was forced out, returned in triumph after leveraging a resurgent Chevrolet brand into ownership of the larger company, wiped out again in an economic collapse, and who finished his life running a cheap restaurant and bowling alley. Great story of hubris writ large.)

[captainccs]

@Goofyhoofy

But you should try not to deflect every criticism “because you like him”; it’s possible to admire someone’s work and detest them at the same time.

Goofy, that’s a good post and I agree with it. Does admire and detest justify trying to ruin their business? Or is the criticism a total misunderstanding of how to run business most effectively?

The Captain

[Hawkwin]

@captainccs

Does admire and detest justify trying to ruin their business?

I think detest is a valid reason not to buy a product closely associated with an individual/group, as well as encourage others not to buy said product.

Hezbollah profits from diamond smuggling. If you were shopping for diamonds and you could identify Hezbollah diamonds, I think it fair to assume you would avoid buying their diamonds, and you might even be compelled to actively campaign for banning the sale of such or at least deter others from buying them.

Now, that isn’t to claim that there is anything comparable between Hezbollah and Musk. It is to state that detest, for whatever reason (even in cases where you may not agree), would be a reason to not support a company. None of us have the power or influence to “ruin” a business.

[captainccs]

@Hawkwin

Now, that isn’t to claim that there is anything comparable between Hezbollah and Musk.

Sure! Thanks for the warning!

[jaagu]

@Goofyhoofy

You left out “by not having the largest automobile companies buy up and dismantle urban mass transit”, aka “the great corporate streetcar conspiracy.”

The oil companies are also to blame for lack of mass transit in urban cores and regional mass transit. However the situation is not bleak with more rail coming online every year.

Many cities have added light rail systems for making urban areas more livable. For example Portland, Minneapolis, Salt Lake City, San Jose, San Diego, Denver, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle just on the Western Half of the US.

List of United States light rail systems — Grokipedia

Then there are regional rail systems which include several counties. For example Bay Area Rapid Transit in San Francisco and surrounding areas), others include Los Angeles, Washington D.C., Chicago, and many more:

List of United States commuter rail systems — Grokipedia