From Cramer 8/20/24: Off The Charts
Larry called the COVID bottom and the Oct 2023 bottom
He uses historical patterns of market cycles and looks for a “match” with what the indexes are doing now, then uses them to project what might be happening in the future.
I have seen him make good calls and a few misses. Does this work? Does any TA work? I guess you have to base this on human emotions, greed, fear, that ultimately drive the markets - even when algos are involved. Those patterns repeat.
They showed a chart of the S&P with a longer-term cycle in blue and a shorter-term cycle overlaid in red. Both time-frames show we should expect real selling pressure until the cycle turns positive in mid-October.
[Pete can see that uncertainty about the election and maybe the Fed will make the market uneasy. September is the most volatile month of the year and the worst month for returns. More new rallies start in October than any other month - no doubt thanks to bad Septembers. The election may become clearer in mid-October, so investors might start coming back and placing bets]
Larry said the short term rally is “kaput”. That matches what Cramer sees in the short-term oscillator.
Cramer: "Larry’s predictors are more about when the market will change course, but not the scale of the change. "
The overlays of NVDA charts to current NVDA chart shows about the same. Predicting a downturn next week. Conveniently around earnings.