LGIH 2017 guidance raised

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Lipar concluded, “Based on our solid results during the first nine months of the year, we are well positioned to end the year very strong and are therefore raising our guidance. For the full year 2017, we now anticipate to close more than 5,400 homes and believe basic EPS will be in the range of $4.75 to $5.15 per basic share.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lgi-homes-inc-reports-record-…

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we now anticipate to close more than 5,400 homes and believe basic EPS will be in the range of $4.75 to $5.15 per basic share.

Hmmm, I project them at 5632 homes but only $4.77. I doubt they would give that $4.75 to $5.15 range unless they were confident of coming in on the high end. Either my assumed ASP is off or the percent net income is much higher than last year. Well, I have 35% more closings but only 30% more eps. That’s not right. Should be $4.87, or higher if ASP increased.

Not much premarket action. $62.30 and p/e of 13 would mean a projection of $4.79. Or, $5.15 would be p/e of 12. We’ll know soon.

KC

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O.k., per basic share. I was using diluted.

KC

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Hmmm, I project them at 5632 homes but only $4.77. I doubt they would give that $4.75 to $5.15 range unless they were confident of coming in on the high end.

KC, remember that’s per basic share. Per diluted share is a little less so your numbers are less out of line.
Saul

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I had bought some $45 September calls several days before Hurricane Harvey…unfortunately, I got spooked and sold at a loss. I wish I had at least exercised 1 of them. The price was almost right at $45 in mid-September at options expiration day. Would have been a nice 33-ish% gain from there (maybe “only” 30% with the option premium tacked on).

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KC, remember that’s per basic share. Per diluted share is a little less so your numbers are less out of line.

Actually, my 3Q $1.40 per diluted share estimate was spot on. :slight_smile: Full year, they gave themselves 8% ASP range and almost 2% on GM. I’m sure they have a better idea than that since 3/4’s of the numbers are in. Once we see the filing we can tighten up the yearend eps.

The analysts questioned sustainability and circled back on number of communities for '18. I had better read all of today’s posts to see if that is covered before I waste my keystrokes.

KC