Here’s the update through Jun 2017:
JAN 172 result in
FEB 224 result in
MAR 365 result in
APR 365 result in
MAY 523 result in (452 was forecast so +71)
JUN 623 result in (457 was forecast so +166)
JUL 462 my forecast
AUG 467 my forecast
SEP 473 my forecast
OCT 478 my forecast
NOV 483 my forecast
DEC 488 my forecast
TOTAL 5123 (original forecast was 4886 so +237)
In July 2017 they closed 591 homes compared to 462 in the original model so here’s the July update:
JAN 172 result in
FEB 224 result in
MAR 365 result in
APR 365 result in
MAY 523 result in (452 was forecast so +71)
JUN 623 result in (457 was forecast so +166)
JUL 591 result in (462 was forecast so +129)
AUG 467 my forecast
SEP 473 my forecast
OCT 478 my forecast
NOV 483 my forecast
DEC 488 my forecast
TOTAL 5200 (original forecast was 4886 so +314)
The gap is widening and it’s becoming increasingly clear that they are going to blow away their guidance of 4700 homes for 2017. My model (above Aug-Dec remaining) uses active selling communities as a driver. The model was stepping up ASCs by 0.8 per month and arriving at 76 by December 2017. They ended July with 76 ASCs and have since added 2 so as of today they already stand at 78 ASCs. If I were to update my model and continue to use the 6.3 homes sold per month per ASC and just hold steady at the current 78 ASCs then they would sell an additional 2457 homes in the remaining 5 months of the year. Under this scenario they would end the year at 5320 homes sold. This would be 620 homes above their current guidance of 4700. I don’t see how they will not add more selling communities in the next 5 months so I think that even the 5320 number is conservative. I predict that 5400 homes is more likely which is 15% more homes than the guidance. Given the results over the recent months I don’t see how they can’t raise their guidance next week.
Chris