I see earnings estimates of 0.50, 0.52 and 0.54 for low, median and high analysts. These seem low to me. Just looking at first quarter home closings and the last 4 filings, well… Do I want to put down my own number???
Looking at 2016 management guidance, let’s just say I wouldn’t be surprised to see $0.62. But I do expect LGIH to beat $0.54. Anyone have their own idea for Q1 earnings?
KC
Personally, I’m kind of wondering how revenue will be up 38% when unit sales were up 26%. I’m guessing prices are up a bit, but still, that’s a lot.
Personally, I’m kind of wondering how revenue will be up 38% when unit sales were up 26%. I’m guessing prices are up a bit, but still, that’s a lot.
138 divided by 126 is 1.095, or 9.5% higher. Not inconceivable, I guess, depending on the product mix plus price rise. Where did that estimate of revenue up 38% come from, by the way?
Saul
Where did that estimate of revenue up 38% come from, by the way?
Saul,
According to Yahoo finance the average estimate for Q2 revenue is 167.55M. I said 28$, but that’s actually more like a 39% increase YoY. I read that this “midpoint” came from exactly 2 analysts. One estimated revenue at 176.50M (which seems silly and reminds me of your post “On the Estimates Game”) and the other estimated 158.60M, which seems in the ballpark.
Bear
Woah, not sure where “28$” came from. What I meant to say was:
I said 38%, but that’s actually more like a 39% increase YoY.
Personally, I’m kind of wondering how revenue will be up 38% when unit sales were up 26%.
This is starting to look a little deja vu 2007, although I don’t see a banking crisis involved. Same story, eps estimates were well up YOY, builders were increasing prices almost monthly, yada yada. And JT got burnt!!
JT
Long a reasonable amount of LGIH
LGI Homes Reports Q1 Earnings Beat, Revenue Misses
8:01 AM ET, 05/10/2016 - MT Newswires
08:01 AM EDT, 05/10/2016 (MT Newswires) – LGI Homes (LGIH) reported Q1 earnings rose to $11.7 million or $0.57 per diluted share from $7.7 million or $0.33 a year ago, exceeding the $0.52 average estimate from analysts polled by Capital IQ.
The homebuilder said its revenue rose to $162.5 million from $120.7 million but missed the $167.6 million consensus estimate. Home closings rose 25.8% to 844 homes and the average home sales price increased 7% to $192,491.
Revenue rises to $162.5 million from $120.7 million (35% increase) but the brilliant analysts decide that their arbitary consensus estimate must be met…stock goes down.
pees me off
Happy Fooliversary, Frank!