LSPD google trends data

Full disclosure: weeks ago, before the short report was released, I sold the small LSPD position I had and bought UPST with those funds.

Today I noticed LSPD price had dropped further. So I decided to perform a Google trends (Worldwide) search on “lightspeed login” over a 2 year time period (10/4/19 to 10/4/21) to examine the business trends of Lightspeed, and help me decide if I should reallocate to LSPD.
I used the term “lightspeed login” as a proxy for merchant customers who log in to lightspeed in this manner and hope that its trend will reflect any broader overall increase in merchant counts.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore/TIMESERIES/16333752…
I then took the area under the curve of the data points and compared from 10/4/19 to 10/4/20 versus 10/5/20 to 10/5/21. The area under the curve was 2856.5 versus 2941. The search volume only grew by 2.87% over this two year period comparison.

Google trends does also indicate the search term for “lightspeed login” in this time period is occurring in the following countries:
(ranked in order of popularity; the number in parenthesis is what Google displays as the country’s relative popularity)

Belgium (100), Netherlands (52), Canada (50), USA (22), Australia (11), Switzerland (7), UK (3), Germany (1)

Now, this is of course fraught with confounding factors, such as not every merchant is going to log in by doing a google search, in fact I bet some are likely logging in by their apps, and merchants in different countries may have different habits of searching to login on Google (for example, maybe UK people are more likely to use Google than someone in Germany). And lightspeed is also the name of a small brokerage firm, from what I understand.

I also did the same calculation for “lightspeed” search and that grew only 3.79% for the same time period 10/4/19 to 10/4/20 versus 10/4/20 to 10/4/21.
But there is clearly growth of “lightspeed” search over the last five years especially when looking at April 2020 to today: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore/TIMESERIES/16333746…
The AUC measurement for October 2020 to October 2021 is about 31% larger than October 2018 to October 2019.

I performed additional searches on terms for lightspeed “downloads, download, app, apps” etc but none of these yield any sign of explosive growth.

To me it seems Google trends data is not showing that organic LSPD merchant count is increasing in any manner of “explosive growth”, the benchmark for ‘explosive growth’ on google trends being a very high bar for me which is UPST, as you can see with UPST’s trend data versus Lending club: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore/TIMESERIES/16333740…

Here is “lightspeed login” visualized against "shopify login" worldwide, over the past 5 years: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore/TIMESERIES/16333734…

Here is “lightspeed login” compared to some of its acquisitions worldwide, over the past 5 years (ecwid, nuorder, shopkeep, upserve): https://trends.google.com/trends/explore/TIMESERIES/16333740…

The only standout term is “ecwid” which clearly had a very huge, noticeable bump from COVID last year.

I bet once ecwid is integrated with LSPD and more of their customers logs in via lightspeed’s unified webpage, google trends data will show an increase in “lightspeed login” popularity but that’s not going to help us distinguish what’s “organic” growth and what’s not.

Finally, I also looked at the apple store for Lightspeed, it is 3.6 star rating out of 5 and only 19 reviews. In comparison, Shopify has 4.6 star and 7.4K reviews.
On google play app store, Lightspeed has 3.4 star and only 73 reviews. SHopify has 4.2 star, 19332 reviews.

What are your thoughts? Not reliable data due to the confounding factors, not significant enough data, or at least something to keep an eye on?

46 Likes

So I decided to perform a Google trends (Worldwide) search on “lightspeed login” over a 2 year time period

My stock broker happens to be “Lightspeed,” no relation to your “Lightspeed.” Lightspeed happens to be quite a popular name which detracts from the Google search validity. Companies should be more selective/creative picking their name.

Denny Schlesinger

10 Likes

If you use “lightspeed pos” the results look much better.

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&am…

But again I wouldn’t really make anything of it. Bad data in. Bad methods. Bad data out (results). Unlike consumers searching for upstart loans to start an application I doubt people who signed up for lspd services have to do a Google search to log in daily/weekly/monthly. May be apps or bookmarked etc. And not sure how much of the searches are from investors not customers etc.

27 Likes

Out of the hundreds of online accounts I’ve had over the years I have never typed Xxx Login in the Search input.
Always just type the company’s name.

7 Likes

I agree with whoever replied that i dont type “company login” for anything i use. It is all bookmarked and saved.

The android app you are referring to appears to be “Kounta” which was acquired by Lightspeed. I think it is more a legacy app that lightspeed maintains for kounta customers vs the mainway lightspeed users access the software.

https://www.lightspeedhq.com.au/kounta/

Looking at Lightspeeds website, they constantly refer to their aoftware and providing a demo. I am guessing you download aoftware or login via their web vs use an app.

I think it would be more conatructive to just focus on their reported numbers and filings. Ecwid eapecially seems key.

The short seller hinted “why hasnt ecwid deal closed yet” on his twitter feed.

So i looked at last ER CC and they spoke about closing on/about Oct 1st, which is exactly what happened.

Seems like a lot of FUD.

I recall Citron or other short sellers going after SHOP and TTD. Pretty sure they went publicly short on NVDA before then going publicly long NVDA.

All those atocks wound up doing juat fine.

Dreamer

15 Likes