Can I beat the market?
$5,148,137,833
Inception date 17.06.22
S&P 3674.84
Portfolio
Brk.b NYSE, Prosus Euronext, Googl Nasdaq, Meta Nasdaq, Baba NYSE.
Portfolio screenshot.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/d3ys2o331nqanm6/Screenshot_2022062…
Next update 17.06.23.
Can I beat the market?
Out of curiosity, over what target time frame?
Most investors try to beat the market over a time frame of a bout a year.
That is, perhaps not coincidentally, probably the hardest time frame in which to manage it.
Much easier at one month or at 3-4 years!
Jim
Annual benchmark but looking at holding for 5+ years. I didnt say it was going to be exciting!
I consider these potential long term compounders and are my 5 best ideas.
Can I beat the market?
$5,148,137,833
If I had five billion dollars I don’t think I’d care.
The idea behind the 5bn is that I’ve been looking at the portfolios of the syperinvestors on Dataroma.
I’m imaging what I’d do if I had institutional money.
I’ve noticed that many don’t actually beat the market.
Imagining*
I’ve noticed that many don’t actually beat the market.
There is a famous bet between 5 hedge funds and the Index fund over 10 years. They all lost by a big margin.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030916/buffe…
That’s shocking!
I wish it were real, nice to be up £370m in a week. If only!
Can I beat the market? …
A lot of fun.
I’m going to start my own paper portfolio thread–stay tuned.
No new decisions, 25+ year outlook.
Jim
Concentrated portfolio, how many stocks?
Concentrated portfolio, how many stocks?
What I’m going to propose? 3 positions.
Jim
I’m guessing QQQE, BRKB and either RSP or GOOGL.
Do I win furnishing from Broyhill if I’m correct?
Personally I hope Jim doesn’t have an index in his portfolio and a few more positions.
I could have given BRK a bigger allocation but purposely only kept it to 20%, this to provide room for other picks and potential discussion around those. It also mirrors my portfolio, not in the same proportions though.
Personally I hope Jim doesn’t have an index in his portfolio and a few more positions.
I don’t buy funds that track indexes.
Other than the fact that I (like most people) think I’ve better than average at picking individual firms, there are some firms I won’t invest in.
Perhaps that’s true of most investors who pause to think about it?
Anyone with that stance shouldn’t buy an index.
It’s really easy to buy a slate of stocks yourself these days.
Jim
https://www.dropbox.com/s/9aitnkwfv51untz/screenshot_2022070…
Quick update, only because we’ve had a good start after 3 weeks.
BABA up 21% and Prosus 44% helping towards a gain of 18% overall with the others gaining between 5 and 12% see link.
S&P up 6% in the same period.
Jim.
What picks did you go for in the end?
I’m keeping an eye out for this one also.
Unimaginably, I would go with
50% Berkshire, 30% QQEW and 20% Google.
That’s not incredibly far off from my actual allocation although I have a few more individual names jammed into the “Google” category and the QQEW is tarnished with a dose of S&P from various accounts that require fund purchase (e.g., 401k type stuff) or built in gains that cause selling to be particularly painful
Would you be surprised to hear that there’s some KMX and DLTR in there along with some overpriced COST?
“A lot of fun.
I’m going to start my own paper portfolio thread–stay tuned.
No new decisions, 25+ year outlook.”
What company characteristics do people here see as most important for long term buy & hold success? Historical growth? Profitability? Market share? Other? I’m guessing that certainty of return may be more important that estimated magnitude of return.
I can speak from my own (albeit entirely unoriginal) perspective that a competitive moat and certainty of earnings growth are way up there on the list.
“It’s hard to imagine this company going away.”
“It’s hard to imagine someone else competing effectively with this business.”
“It’s hard to imagine this business not maintaining it’s profitability/presence in the consumer’s mind.”
