My notes from the call and analysis:
tldr; great quarter - was up AH yesterday during cc. Started up today 8% finished down 9% though because of the general market turmoil. I don’t often agree with Jim Cramer, but he said as much during this interview with executive chair Glen Tullman which happened earlier tonight:
revenues (millions) Quarterly Sequential Growth YOY growth
Q42019 $50.3 7% 140%
Q32019 $47 15% 147%
Q22019 $41 28% 156%
Q12019 $32 52% 167%
Q42018 $21 11% n/a
Q32018 $19 19% n/a
Q22018 $16 33% n/a
Q12018 $12 n/a n/a
As you can see above, yoy rev growth is decelerating slightly (understandable when growing at a very fast clip around 150%). There is also seasonality in the numbers - we see that Q4 has shown the weakest growth sequentially. I think they alluded to this during the call - Companies tend to sign up for livongo in Q1 as oppposed to Q4.
Q4 2019 ($5.9) -71% -51%
Q3 2019 ($20) 43% 82%
Q2 2019 ($14) -7% 133%
Q1 2019 ($15) 25% 275%
Q4 2018 ($12) 9% n/a
Q3 2018 ($11) 83% n/a
Q2 2018 ($6) 50% n/a
Q1 2018 ($4) n/a n/a
The trend with net income is that it is slowly getting worse (except in this most recent quarter), but I would argue that in general it is manageably bad. Seems under control mostly.
My cc highlights/snippets:
-Flagship offering Livongo for Diabetes members increased 96% year over year to 222,700.
Vinegar101: quick googling reveals over 34 million people in the U.S. have diabetes and 1.5 million people get diagnosed with it each year. They have much more runway in this segment alone.
-Strength from our other conditions, as Zane noted, was evident with over 48,000 members enrolled at year end in either Livongo for Hypertension, Pre-diabetes and/or Weight Management.
-we grew enrollments in behavioral health from approximately 200,000 in 2018 to approximately 300,000 in 2019.
-Moreover, with more than 147 million Americans living with a chronic condition and 40% living with more than one, we have plenty of room to grow our addressable market.
-Record signings in the fourth quarter, and expanding our reach to over 30% of Fortune 500 companies
-14% of our clients having more than one Livongo offering at the end of 2019, compared to 4% at the end of 2018.
-Average monthly attrition is 2-3%, mostly due to people leaving their employers
-CEO: I also feel confident reaffirming our commitment to profitability in 2021 on an adjusted EBITDA basis.
Vinegar101: Also, I found a graphic from livongo that explains what EVA (estimated value of agreements) is. Per Livongo:
“Estimated value of agreements is: a) New client signings in the quarter and b) Expansion of existing clients in the quarter.
While we sell all year long, the growth of EVA tends to skew towards the second half of the year, the point at which many clients determine their following year’s benefit package”.