Saul just decided ENPH is a good idea.
Sort of like people deciding TTD is a good idea in 2021 or later.
I don’t get it.
Same Saul that wrote:
It is a bizarro world now.
By the way, ENPH was a short for me at $330’s, but I didn’t stick with it. Would have been a 50% gain. So it could bounce now, sure…still not a LTBH for me at these levels though.
Dreamer
I’ve always been skeptical of him and his "purported’ results, frankly. This ENPH thing smells extremely like a pump and dump set up, imo.
Now Saul in GLBE.
He must read this board…has to just be mocking me with this post.
As usual, his complete disdain for valuation led him to buy at $28+ when stock has been at $19 or less twice in past year. And at the time it was at $19, it was still putting up better ER numbers.
Whatevs. Can’t make this stuff up.
On deck must be TTD and NVDA. Maybe ESTC…ha.
Dreamer
Hi - welcome! All IT questions are answered by Raylight, if he can be bothered to notice. I have a sneaking suspicion he reads every post, so let’s see what he says!
Dreamer <— delegates
The 'ol “be nice to the old people” angle, eh?
I have a resident old guy on WAFTT…KC…we are very nice to him and his giant pile of rice.
You sort of answered the question in your question…he has been horridly wrong for a long time, and there is a certain responsibility to the hundreds (thousands?) of relatively new investors who “found” the Saul board in 2019 or later especially, that bought into this system as being a no-brainer. If they found the board anytime in mid-2021 or later, they are probably vastly underwater for having followed the reckless disregard for valuation.
Yet TMF decided his board, among all others, deserved to have its full history preserved, while throwing away everything else.
It boggles the mind.
Echo chambers are dangerous, no matter the topic.
Saul’s board is not alone in embracing momo/fomo and growth at all costs, valuation discussions be damned. It is prevalent on Twitter or StockTwits or Seeking Alpha. Prevalent every time Tom Lee or Cramer speaks on CNBC.
No one over there can answer the question on whether high-growth high-SBC low/no-profit stocks can/should/will consistently outperform the markets or other cohorts of stocks? Why? Because they invented the system out of thin air, and based it largely on 2017-2019 results. When a few trillion of free money hit retail during covid, 2020 put those results on steroids.
But it is no different than TSLA, or GME, or AMC, or countless other stocks they weren’t investing in, such as all the SPACs that flooded the market.
It was like throwing darts at a football-field-sized bullseye. You can say “Gross Margins” and “sequential growth trends” and yada yada. But how to explain DDOG stock performance? What does it mean when ZM grows rev by 4x and then market cap collapses…perhaps it never deserved to be that high, hmmm?
In the face of a quite-possible recession, he touts MNDY. A stock with no moat, that is a nice-to-have vs a must-have.
Mostly I mock the moves because they disliked my contrarian views to their echo chamber so much that they blocked me from posting there.
How much money would I have saved people on that board?
So I point out the madness in the hopes of saving folks on this board who aren’t blindly trying to fill out their excel sheet with a broken formula.
By the way, AT SOME POINT, he will be right again. Just hope he does everyone a favor and points less to the YTD gains at that time, and more to the cautionary tale of how far off his ATH he yet remains.
Final comment - he had decades-long success, at least as he relays it, which I have no particular reason to doubt, and that success had nothing to do with unprofitable SaaS. It was focused on undervalued PE.
Dreamer
I think I am more accurately deemed a GARP (growth at reasonable price) investor.
My biggest wins in recent years were stocks like NVDA (ironically before you got into it…I was more 2015-2017) and TTD from 2017 thru Jan 2020. I tried riding ESTC, but it never took off like DDOG. I talked about SentinelOne and Zscaler before they IPOd.
Finally switched to SPG (value / malls) when the investing world seemed to lose it’s mind in mid-2020. But, ironically, it was still about growth at the time. In fact, it may have been a pre-2016 Saul type of investment, once you peaked under the covers and realized business was artificially squashed due to covid/indoor shutdown mandates, and when you looked at similarly how SPG bounced back after GFC. To that end, SPG is back on the radar again, although $86 in 2022 was probably a missed oppty, I think it gets back there and maybe lower IF we really do get a recession. If that is the case, I expect that they will climb out of it as strong as they always do. So might get a repeat of the SPG play at some point in next 12 months or less…will see.
Otherwise, I still believe in growth stocks. But NVDA was flat for about 15 years and I bought in before the DC/ML/AI potential was clear to general masses. Same with TTD, which was a sub-$2b mkt cap and an 8 P/S or less, profitable growth stock.
I am not sure if UPST can survive the recession…at least without raising cash/diluting a ton, but if they are tiny mkt cap still in middle of recession, I would think about the potential in coming out the other side.
Same with S…security should have long tailwinds, as long as they don’t get disrupted. ZS tech was always a giant workaround…not surprised to see NET bypassing them potentially, or ZS faltering…exactly how big a valuation did people think an IT software/infrastructure should be? I was around for CSCO $500b mkt cap or whatever silliness it was in 2000. Same with JNPR and RBAK and the “gorilla game stocks” which is just deja vu when I read the Saul board in 2019 and 2020, and the parallels were obvious. “This time, it’s different” are some of the most dangerous words ever uttered in investing.
Dreamer
Agree with this when sides are locked in, which they often would be on that board (and many other places).
At least it could be entertaining.
However, I do like to hear different points of view (Isn’t that the purpose of these forums?) yet I can see why strict rules are needed in that specific case, otherwise I’m nearly certain that board would disintegrate.
My minions do the reading and report to me.
Raylight ← delegates
Ok, so about that “tag”. What you’re seeing is a list of “related” topics that link to the one you’re reading. It’s a mechanism to help split up conversations into multiple topics/threads.
I think people are adults and should not expect that they will get rich based on the random kindness of strangers. I put about 3% of my money in his strategy, and upon the advice of someone else, I sold my original position when his stocks were way up, (not soon enough), but still way up, so I am playing with house money.
If someone puts a significant amount of their money in stocks recommended by someone they never met, and who is not charging for it, then they are not thinking clearly.
You have 8 stocks in a tiny portion of the market. Unless you have studied his philosophy deeply, and really understand it like the back of your hand, you should not put a lot of money in it.
Regardless of whether your common sense is correct or misplaced idealism, the reality is that most people are probably (financially) akin to idiots.
The whole concept of wsb and meme stocks is herd mentality. Look at the cult of Tesla and the recently formed cult of AI/NVDA. Then of course you have DOGE. A crypto “currency” made around a photo of a dog, popularized by a billionaire clown on the internet.
Look at the popularity of kardashian or housewife reality tv shows or in gazing for hours at short videos ala Instagram or Tik Tok or YouTube Shorts.
When you have a decent job or career, you tend to be surrounded by other high-functioning adults, many with similar mindsets and work ethics and a general understanding of self-reliance and responsibility. We aren’t the majority, imo. Only need to go to a grocery store or walmart or a voting line during election time…yeah. Or the DMV…that is always a good one.
There are so many fintwit “gurus” on Twitter it is astounding.
People pay attention to what I say, and I literally repeatedly point out that I am just a guy on the internet…a monkey throwing rocks at the moon.
I have a serious sober side…sure. But anytime I find people putting too much stock into something I do or did or accomplished in this life, I kind of look at them with new eyes and stare in wonder that they think I did anything overly special.
What am I against then? Dogma. Always bearish, always bullish…valuation never matters…growth only matters. Get some balance. Be your buddha.
Dreamer
I agree with you everything you wrote.
The cult of Tesla,? I have a few longer term friends on the Tesla board that have built incredible wealth on the back of Tesla for well over a decade now. A cult? Incredibly profitable company, high margins, cash hoarding business leading not only the EV car evolution, but also by leaps and bounds the charging network. A cult? Well you can call it anything you want, but anyone that hasn’t been in the stock the last decade has missed an incredible run, that I don’t think is by any means over.
I won’t even get into the roadmap for NVDA moving forward. A cult? Please.
Full disclosure. NVDA is my second largest holding, TSLA is my 4th. Oh and AAPL is my largest. Bought it in 2003, 10k, still have never sold an original share. Over the earlier years I added about 15k on sell offs. Still own those shares as well. You can do the math on the original shares if you feel like it. AAPL alone allowed me to semi retire at 50. Now that’s my kind of cult.
Blockquote
You sort of answered the question in your question…he has been horridly wrong for a long time, and there is a certain responsibility to the hundreds (thousands?) of relatively new investors who “found” the Saul board in 2019 or later especially, that bought into this system as being a no-brainer. If they found the board anytime in mid-2021 or later, they are probably vastly underwater for having followed the reckless disregard for valuation.
I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt, and state that I don’t believe there was any attempt to move the market by his posts. Assuming that is true, I don’t think he has any obligation to protect the people who found his board assuming he believes that value is unimportant. I will give him the benefit of the doubt there also.
People have the right to start boards, and state their opinions. Maybe in the long run he will be right. Bear has about 12x what started with in 2017. I have a problem with people being dishonest, and for example, telling people they can make millions of dollars off of multi level marketing which I am sure they know is not true. If someone starts a board and honestly states what he thinks and turns out to be wrong, then it is unfortunate, but I can’t assign blame.
“Bear has about 12x what started with in 2017”
Or…put another way…Bear hasn’t made a dime since approx Oct/Nov 2020.
From his post:
So about 2.5 years of underperformance.
When can we finally be real and state that 2020 was an aberration.
Good for him.
But let’s stop averaging things with 2020 and pretending there is some sort of consistent winning occuring.
Saul has now partially capitulated, which is and isn’t surprising to me.
In the past, he showed an emotional detachment from his stocks…walking away and not looking back. The problem has been that SaaS stocks had such “good” metrics, when you ignore profitability and sbc, that he couldn’t as easily kick stocks to the curb because he had trouble finding something doing better, at least based on similar metrics.
So we end the great DDOG experiment, essentially with 3 years of no growth in stock price. So unless you sold in the 2020/2021 highs, you basically just lost to inflation by holding DDOG stock. DDOG and ZM are very similar, but don’t seem like it because covid fast-tracked the ZM growth exponentially, so you saw a sort of expedited version of what to me seemed inevitable: stock crashing/grounded under the weight of sbc and a massive mkt cap that had way too many years of growth priced in.
So he pivots to Dreamer 2021 favorite GLBE or putnid’s legendary penny stock win in ENPH.
As happens every other year, he finds a bio-related stock he likes that appeals to his health career bias.
I honestly no little about Samsara and Procore, so no comment on those yet.
I will predict Monday (MNDY) will be the next great disappointment. Of all the stocks he kept or doubled-down on, I am really surprised he stuck with a nice-to-have non-mission-critical stock that spends too much on advertising and doesn’t really make money. Not that they can’t/won’t grow from here, but what is already built into stock and with sbc what will mkt cap do over next 2-3 years? How is this not ZEN or TWLO all over again?
SNOW is a solid company, but I question the moat, and valuation still too high. NET is a tough one…if they are still around in 10 years, they could be mission critical. Edge hasn’t yet played out…hasn’t really started in some cases, so not clear who the winners will be yet.
NET, like TTD, has a bad habit of going to 30s/40s then back to 60’s and repeat. Given macro backdrop, why is now the time to invest, when they are at the 60’s?
For me it is always about an entry price and an exit strategy.
As for Citi…amazing that you knew, in 2003, that Apple would create the iPhone and completely transform as a company. Prescient.
LTBH always sounds great when it happens to have been a winner in hindsight. SP500 companies don’t typically last in the index as long as you have owned AAPL. But, hey, it ain’t luck when you do it.
Dreamer
I believe this is the third time Monday has been a “high conviction” holding for S in the past 18 months. i’d be very surprised if he’s made any money on it yet. When it disappoints it dives hard and he has historically capitulated, locking in a loss.
I’ve made no secret of my skepticism regarding his returns. I’ve become doubly so during this latest period. Frankly, I wonder why I bother even reading the stuff there anymore, most of the folks whose opinions I respected don’t post there any longer.
Must be the “train-wreck watcher” in me. Plus I remember the mocking and scathing scolding he gave me when I sold NET at $81, he was “buying it by the fistful”, if I recall. So it’s likely a bit of some sick part of me that wants to see him receive his comeuppance.
sigh - maybe I will be a better person tomorrow.
Doubtful. Ha.
But it is ok, as I was told there was room in hell for both of us.
It is probably a very good thing I can’t actually post there anyway…as it wouldn’t be productive. Go look at the latest round of monthly updates and “marvel” at how quickly they all seem to have ENPH in their ports.
Next month, assuming Saul still has them in his port, I expect we will see a lot more Samsara, Procore, and GLBE in others’ ports too.
Just simply amazing how that happens. Definitely not an echo chamber.
Dreamer
I listen to Meb Faber, and he says it takes 20 years to know if an investment strategy works. I don’t know if Saul’s method works.
My point is only if Saul believes that his strategy is a good one, and he is not trying to manipulate the market, that his behavior is ethical. For people who got in, in 2021, it is sad, but they are probably the same types who started flipping houses in 2007, or bought the internet stocks in 1999.
Check again.
It’s laid out in plain sight that TMDX was a 8.6% position at the end of February (2/24), and down to a 3.2% position at the end of March. There’s even a paragraph explaining the thinking behind it.
About stories and names I’ll never know… Guess what? 
I found out about Saul’s board in early October 2021 thanks to a tweet that went viral. And can also tell from experience that the survival rate for anyone who “found” the stock market in the beginning of 2021 is really low. Here’s my little journey from August 2021 to mid February 2022:
Then came the rest of 2022. The market has been a brutal experience. Alas, I’m grateful for that board, including things you guys have written there. It’s been a tremendous help to be able to reach a level where I can rely solely on my own research.
Eventually came a point where I created an account. Shortly after the board migration I clicked on that “request ability to post” - with literally zero prior posting history from the old boards, and I’d wish that people who’d like to have that ability would do the same. I mean, it’s it not an obligation to post. It’s a focused board revolving around a piece of a puzzle. That’s how I see it, anyway.
As for lessons, IMO the first one would be don’t gamble with money you can’t afford to lose. I own every investment decision I make, and don’t put that on anyone else.
I really enjoy this board, and it often also serves as a nice counterpoint. I don’t like the feeling of a divided community, however.
I don’t really care about what Saul does or does not do with his portfolio. I am more interested in reading about diverse POVs and interesting stock ideas on any online forum…Saul’s board included.
It is good to see more differentiation in the portfolios that are reported there. This has been happening since late last year…I guess it took 9 months to give up hope that the US Fed would pivot away from interest rate hikes. Prior to that, everyone’s portfolio looked similar. Now, some have a higher cash holding, while others are 100% invested. Some are mostly still in SaaS and others are in medical devices, EVs, clean energy etc.
Unfortunately, the echo chamber is still prevalent on Saul’s board and is not helping others learn from different perspectives. When you stifle conversation and dialogue, the relevance of the public space slowly dies away. We can see that happening for the past 1.5 years.
I will continue to check in with the board every once in a while until there is no need to do so because there is more to learn from other sources.
I read and contribute to several other boards as well that are more welcoming without the online drama and bullying. Life is too short to deal with such nonsense, irrespective of how old the person dishing it out is.
