Mamdani Real Estate Effect

Across Westchester County, northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut, agents report that affluent city dwellers are acting fast, locking in properties before potential policy changes take effect

That urgency is showing up in the data. Pending home sales in Westchester are up roughly 15% from a year ago, while average showing activity has climbed more than 25% since midsummer, according to Compass agents Zach and Heather Harrison. “Concerns about higher taxes, safety, and a desire for more space are driving people to act quickly,” said Zach Harrison. “We’re seeing bidding wars well into the multimillion-dollar range.”

High-net-worth buyers from Manhattan and Brooklyn are placing offers sight unseen, often hundreds of thousands of dollars above asking, in a bid to outpace rivals. “It feels like the pandemic all over again, but with more urgency,” Heather Harrison said.

Luxury enclaves like Greenwich, Conn., are seeing similar dynamics.

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Well that’s one way to revive the real estate industry. Lots of space to be vacated and perhaps reconfigured in the city, lots of activity for realtors and building crews, lots of sales for the suburbs.

What’s not to like? :slight_smile:

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Maybe. The article didn’t give any data on the number of properties involved. If it’s, say, 1000 then the amount of real estate involved is a small part of the NYC area (even though high priced).

DB2

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Ah yes Citizens United decision.

The vast majority of Americans — no matter their partisan identification — say unlimited political spending weakens democracy and wealthy donors have too much power in elections, a new national poll indicates.*

A Fortune magazine article dated Oct. 28 listed 26 billionaires who have sunk more than $22 million into the pot to bring Mamdani down. A few of the names and numbers: Michael Bloomberg, $8.3 million; the Lauder family, $2.6 million; Bill Ackman, $1.75 million, and so on. [Oligarch Donald Trump endorsed Mamdani’s opponent Monday night].

The voter has spoken.
I dunno if Mamdani can be successful. We will see.
But he will have entrenched NYC bureaucracy likely fighting him every step of the way.

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There’s an old Wall Street saying that money goes where it is treated best. Earlier this year Chicago exchanges moved out of Illinois to Dallas.

And from last year…

Welcome to Y’all Street, Texas’ Burgeoning Financial Hub
https://www.wsj.com/finance/welcome-to-yall-street-texas-burgeoning-financial-hub-29b712f4
The site is where Perot’s real-estate investment company, Hillwood, is partnering to build a $500 million Goldman Sachs tower for more than 5,000 bankers and investors. That will make it the financial firm’s second-largest office, behind New York.

As the helicopter swung northwest, windows glinted from two unfinished Wells Fargo office towers, scheduled to open next year. A bit farther away: a fourth office building under construction for Charles Schwab, which moved its headquarters from California to the Dallas area five years ago, and the footprint of a Deloitte campus doubling in size.

The sprawling landscape illustrates an expansion that has brought to North Texas a presence in financial services that now sits second only to New York City in the U.S. And growth of so-called Y’all Street is accelerating.

DB2

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Loosing the tax paying base. Money is mobile and goes where is it appreciated. Will be interesting to see if this exodus occurs and if anyone moves in.

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Heh, well that is one way to ensure that “mobile money” is not appreciated in Texas.

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How does a governor impose a tariff on residents moving from NYC? You could do a real estate transfer tax on buyers. But wouldn’t that impact all transfers. How do you make it specific to NYC?

Sounds like balderdash to me.

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So let’s see here. Gov. Abbott is proposing to levy a tariff on humans moving from NYC to Texas. Using Donald’s sophisticated understanding of what tariffs are and how they work, the company that presumably owns these people will no doubt pay the tariffs out of their own pockets so that the people of Texas, the recipients in this transaction, do not have to pay extra costs. But of course, if the companies do not, the price of the human goods in this transaction will rise and the people of Texas will face inflated costs for these human goods.

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It certainly does. Does anybody in that party understand how tariffs work? Geesh…

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“In our business right now, we are seeing CEO after CEO committing to the city,” Rechler said. “We’re seeing a record level of leasing in office buildings. And it’s not just for next year, it’s for 2028, 2030, 2032,” he added.

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NYC is huge, and within it the city government is small, and within that government the mayor has a bully pulpit but a tiny “policy lever”. Mamdani is like a single pebble falling onto a big pile of rocks, unless that pile itself landslides, an actual long term change in voter sentiment, but we are looonnnggg ways away from seeing that. And there is also a very policy diverse City Council, and Albany has a big say, and so.

Inertia rules. No big change coming, yet.

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Not many. I just had a lawyer client today wondering if SCOTUS rules against the admin, will that mean we have to pay all that money back to China. He was wondering if he should move all his money to treasuries because he feared a market sell off based on such.

How can someone with an advanced degree not know how this works? If the government has to pay back $Bs in tariffs, it likely means treasuries will lose some value because the deficient will increase.

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Are you a fiduciary? If so, I can empathize as a safety professional. I often think about my job as being in a constant battle with natural selection.

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Gallows humor

Ofw

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I have an IP lawyer. Nice honest lawyer and engineer who wants to work methodically on every little problem.

He thinks I am “impulsive”. I can make decisions. Lol

I realized I had to manage him or he would bill endlessly.

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Re: pay all the money back to China

Surely people know the refund would not go back to China. Importers paid the tariff on goods imported for China. The refund should go to whoever paid the tariff—importer or buyer.

Yes, it could be a large govt expenditure (but tiny compared to national debt).