Mark Palmer downgrades SQ to a sell

I bought 20% more at $45.89
And fully expect steady relief thru the day followed by some data release about ridiculous cyber Monday transaction volume, and be fully whole again by Wednesday afternoon.


I added just 10%. Bitcoin fueled rally?? SQ has been well discussed here and on NPI board Not a word about bitcoin, unless I have lost all short term memory. Square Capital has been kicked around a bit. I’ll check back in towards the close and see about buying more. I am always too early to buy.



I’ve been wanting to add to SQ, but it went up so fast last month I didn’t get a chance to, I last added at $37. I think it went up so fast it got ahead of itself and all the momentum investors jumped in. Now all the momentum investors are jumping out, or jumping to the short side.

Mark Parker made the downgrade based on valuation, he has a $30 price target based on 20x his 2020 adjusted ebitda target of $610 M.

It is very hard to predict what the ebitda will be 3 years out with everything that’s happening at SQ. Also, the growth rate is accelerating.

Momentum is a powerful force.


I have been waiting for an opportunity to jump in for a bit more SQ, so I’m happy to take it

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Amen. Great opportunity for an 11% off sale!

The puts have nice premium as well.


…Not just puts paying well, overall the Jan 2020 options are out now!

I setup a Jan 2020 40 Syn Long for $320. On a tax pass through basis, I need to only have Square hit pass 45.61 to make this a net positive with 781 days to go!

Would have setup more of these before the Earnings release but alas, 2020 LEAPS weren’t out.


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Even after today’s sell-off, SQ is still up nearly 15% from its price a month ago!

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I added 10% more. I was waiting for a drop. Didn’t expect it this soon but suspect will get another chance in a few months.


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What a dilemma! Square had grown to a 20+% position for me - That was making me very uncomfortable. Last week a sold enough to reduce it to about 15%, I still took a big hit today, but viewed it as a temporary condition.

My problem was twofold, first, I had already redeployed most of the money into starter positions of ALGN and HUBS, therefore not much cash on hand. Second, I sold SQ because I was over-invested in it. I didn’t particularly want to sell other positions in order to add more to my already outsized position.

After reading this thread, the solution presented itself: options. I rarely trade options, but this seems like a no-brainer. I placed an order for Jan, '18, $41 calls @ $3.70. Yeah, I’m aware I could lose the entire premium and if I do it will be a pity, but the case for the upside potential just seems overwhelming. It won’t take long for people to realize SQ is on-sale and drive the price back up.

I have no idea of who this analyst is, but to me it comes across almost like an Andrew Left short attack. Wouldn’t surprise me a bit if the guy shorted the stock before issuing his sell notice. Probably just trying to raise money for his Christmas shopping. I think this whole thing will blow over pretty quick. I could be wrong (wouldn’t be the first time) but, IMO this is almost a gimme.

Hi brittlerock, re the short attack on Square,

Read my post 32222, just in front of yours