- Market has follow through as of today and falls from here.
- Market is about to go manic.
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Nvidia reports earnings next week. We hope for excellent numbers. That should build confidence that AI spending continues. And might give market a boost. But market can sell anyway.
I still think tech stocks are true growth stocks. Innovative and likely to grow earnings w other products once AI fades.
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Sure. So were tech stocks in the 90’s, although I recall they all got dragged down in the dot-com bust. But there were lots of tech stocks which went down and never recovered, everything from fly-by-nights like Pets.com to things we all thought were solid, like Lucent.
Some of the “new tech” will doubtless prosper, long term. Some won’t. At these prices I’m not even sure a basket will come out ahead, but I am sure there will be victors we all talk about in 10 years and think “If only I’d had…”
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Intel is my favorite example. From the dot-com bust, it took it 26 years to make a new all-time-high. INTEL!
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That’s a good one. I think of Lucent because, ahem, I owned it. It’s been so long I forget my “in” and my “out” price!, but it wasn’t good. From tip to nozzle it went from $128 to $2, got bought by Alcatel, then by Nokia, now doesn’t exist.
Where I was growing up we had a Bell Labs plant nearby. Huge, in both size and mindshare as a young techie (such as it was in the 60’s) growing up. Bell Labs! —-> Lucent —-> gone. Whew!
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Same with Cisco. People believed that the Internet would be big some day, and it would require Cisco hardware. Both of which were correct. However, that did not justify the valuation.
I had Gemini create a table comparing Cisco at its peak with Nvidia today:
| Metric |  Cisco (Dot-Com Peak - March 2000) |
 NVIDIA (AI Boom Era - August 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Peak Price-to-Earnings (P/E) | Over 200x | ~32x - 39x |
| Price-to-Sales (P/S) | 29x | ~24x |
| The Core Revenue Engine | Internet routers and switches | AI hardware, GPUs, and data center silicon |
| Customer Viability | Unprofitable internet startups funded entirely by venture capital cash | Massively cash-rich “Hyperscalers” (Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google) |
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Cisco had a P/E of 200plus
Tesla current P/E is 191.92
Hmmm. I don’t own any Tesla or any stock with nose bleed P/E ratios YMMV
NVDA PE ratio is currently 33. However, the forward PE (which take into account the changes expected in earnings) is 22.
DB2
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