It actually stayed above the 50.
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5/2/25 (Fri) What could go wrong?
Another good week. Naz and S&P up 1.5% for the day and above 50dma and 21dma. S&P had the longest weekly winning streak in 20 years. Both moving toward the 200dma which Webby says has a normality of choppiness. He did go over a number of “similar” markets to show this and one should watch that part of Friday’s show.
Webby pointed out the chop around the 200dma on the 1998 rally. This is the S&P, the Naz just moved through it like it was not there.
Earnings this coming week.:
Earnings: Mon: PLTR, VRTX. Wed: Uber (AM).
A large number of leaders beyond Berkshire Hathaway and Palantir report this coming week. TG Therapeutics (TGTX), DoorDash (DASH), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Uber Technologies (UBER), Axon Enterprise (AXON), Fortinet (FTNT), Argenx (ARGX), BellRing Brands (BRBR), Carvana (CVNA), MercadoLibre (MELI), Talen Energy (TLN) are just a handful of the key reports.
Friday Video with Webby
○ Webby reminds us that subsequent FTDs are indicative of a good rally, the more the better.
○ Webby says we had a subsequent FTD on the Naz (looks like they were point to 4/24), but I see that day had lower volume, so I am confused about their definition.
○ A key [coming] indicator for Webby is 3 days with close above 200dma, that is when we might really be in a good rally. Lots of algos and traders focused on the 200dma. It would be normal and natural to have some chop around this trendline. Webby says he has taken a little off the table because of that (he notes that he did get aggressive and wants to lock in some gains before we get in a fight with the 200dma).
○ If QQQ gets back above 439.62 (the last marked high), Webby would probably add that exposure back
○ XLF and financials is a good place to look right now.
○ VXUS is strong and Webby “made a mistake selling it from Swing Trader”. You could see years of outperformance. On the monthly chart you can see the RS crossing above trend lines. Webby notes that if lots of big funds decided to go from 5% x-US to 10% x-US, that could be a huge long term move.
○ SPOT Webby “I went very heavy into it today” He reduced exposure to PLTR due to earnings on Monday and put the money in SPOT. He would sell if it goes below Friday’s low.
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You sure it wasn’t 4/23?
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It must have been 4/23. I ignored that because the gap-up made me think it was only a small gain, but when I looked it was a +2.5% gain.
SFM: Sold my position for a tiny gain, but I wanted available cash. It had earnings a couple days ago and is doing nothing. It tried to breakout but reversed down.
RBRK is breaking out today, I might pick that up at end of day. ATGE broke out yesterday and looks good, but I have LRN in same group. I might want to save the cash for an UBER or VRTX breakout. MELI is falling back into buy zone on low volume.
Take a look at NEXN. ZS is in a stage 2 consolidation and is looking strong. I have been adding to a core Motley Fool position since it moved above a consolidation area, Maybe if we have a market fight around the 200dma, this will go sideways and provide a good opportunity.
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I sold GEV, HWM, Loar and Pen to get some cash today and bought More RBRK, and Hims, Hims reports today but they brought on an Amazon exec that started their pharmaceutical division. I also bought CRDO and put a stop below the 200sma. I like those easy to figure out stops, Either it does well or I am out with little loss. I also bought TVTX on a double bottom breakout. My PLX is down today but I have a very small position in it since I expect it to be volatile.
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5/6/25
Markets have been fighting gravity since Friday. Monday and Tuesday opened with gaps down, then pared losses, but faded into the close. None have tested the 200dma, and are now bending down toward the magnet of the 50dma.
S&P picked up its first distribution day today. Exposure remains at 40-60%, but seems like we might want to reduce that if we don’t get better fast.
Fed wraps up meeting on Wednesday, but no one expects a cut at this point.
Futures out about 0.8% on rumor that Trump will sit down with China next week, but that could change 5 times by then. If we gap up on that, then go below the 50dma tomorrow, that will be bad news. SH, SQQQ and SARK are inverse leveraged ETF should the 50dma be penetrated.
IBD
A stock market pullback right now would be normal. But it also wouldn’t be surprising to see the market rally fizzle out around these levels, especially if Trump tariff news turns negative.
Despite a couple of relatively calm sessions, Trump tariff headlines could still send stocks skyrocketing or plunging.
The current pause could let some leaders forge handles or pull back to key levels. So look for new setups.
But if this is the start of a bigger retreat, investors will need to pare or close out positions. Some trimming may already be occurring for specific stocks. Have your exit strategies in hand.
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5/7/25 - No Man’s Land
Naz and S&P keep bouncing around between 50 and 200dma. Yesterday I said it looked like the 50dma was a magnet attracting the market down, but today it looked like it repelled it back up.
The Nasdaq composite was the weakest of the major indexes, but reversed higher late in the session and finished up 0.3%. The tech-heavy index remains down 1.3% for the week but continues to hold clear of its 50-day moving average.
The S&P 500 squeezed out a lift of 0.4% Wednesday. It is now down 1% this week but is above its short-term moving averages and its 50-day line.
Fed says they are still waiting for data to tell them what to do. I heard one commentator say this piece of wisdom “It is better to be behind the curve than in front of the wrong curve”.
Trump"
“Big News Conference tomorrow morning at 10:00 A.M., The Oval Office, concerning a MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY. THE FIRST OF MANY!!!”
(futures up) But his definition of “big” can sometimes be disappointing. All the talk has been about India, but we know their parliament must approve, so that does not seem likely to be a surprise. Japan would be big and is more likely than EU. Maybe South Korea.
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5/8/25 - When Trump says buy stocks, buy TQQQ for the day.
When Trump announced there would be a release of a tariff agreement, he also said people should buy stocks. He was right for the second time.
Naz finished up 1.07% on vol bigger than yesterday, to that is an additional FTD. It still swimming between 50 and 200dma. The 21dma is touching the 50dma and trying to rise above. S&P did not have an FTD, and its 21dma is not yet up to the 50dma.
On the negative side, the market faded pretty fast at the end of the day and the Naz only finished at 53% of its ATR.
Earnings reports are still producing some pretty nice gainers, just don’t know which they will be.
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The stock market rally paused after big weekly gains in the prior two weeks and three of the last four.
Dow Jones futures jumped Sunday night, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed substantial progress following U.S.-China trade talks. Pete believes reality will be different when and if we get details on Monday. (there will be a joint release)
Dow Jones futures rose 1.1% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures popped 1.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 2%. Pete believes this would take IBD exposure to 60-80% and might be an additional FTD.
Futures signal the Nasdaq 100 will jump above its 200-day line while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite would near that key level. Webby said Friday he would get aggressive if we went above 200dma.
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I think Pete he said he would like the low above the 200sma and that if it was 3 days above he would get aggressive but maybe I misunderstood.
The discussion to start IBD Live this morning was Webster and three “steps” for reacting to major levels (the 200 in this case):
- Move above the 200
- Close above the 200
- Low above the 200
It can happen all at once. However, Webster then wants to see 3 lows above the resistance level (the 200) before he goes all in. That doesn’t mean he’s not buying small amounts of what’s working (he loves TWAPs) and selling some things that are not working. Justin likes to watch the 5 minute chart and see what happens. Scott St Clair sold off immediately to only 15% positions. He likes to take the “gift” of the gap up. Both Justin and Mike stressed closing positions of what isn’t working such as SPOT this morning.
We’ll see.
Lakedog
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Yea I closed my gold miners today. Thanks Lake. I haven’t bought anything yet want to see how this holds. Tsla, CRDO, AS, net, APP, GEV, MNDY, Pen, Alab all look interesting. Just at a glance.
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5/12/25 - Tariff Relief
We have seen Bessent gain significant influence over the hard-liner Navarro and it has paid off with the China negotiations.
Markets gapped up at the open, opened above 200dma and stayed there. Higher volume than yesterday certainly means an additional FTD and recommended exposure is now 60-80%.
As Lake noted, Webby wants to see 3 days with low staying above the 200dma before getting super aggressive, but Swing Trader is putting on positions as are IBD traders.
Naz up 14% since FTD of 4/22/25. That is close to being a “Life Changer” rally.
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5/16/25 - Power Trend is your friend
The Power Trend officially started for S&P and Naz. Also, but have 5 closing lows above the 200dma. Webby said this would make him aggressive.
On Friday, President Donald Trump said the U.S. would set tariff rates on other trading partners over the next two to three weeks, saying the administration lacks the capacity to reach deals with all of them.
ETFs tracking the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%-1.3% late Friday on the U.S. credit downgrade.
Futures trading opens Sunday night.
Friday Video with Webby.
○ Markets close at high of the day and of the week
○ In a power trend, Webby says “A power trend is a big deal”
○ This week started with the China tariff surprise and forced shorts to cover. Often you will then see the market fade back to prior trend, but that did not happen this time, we kept going up.
○ This could be like the 1998 rally, where the depth was about the same and when it started going up, it just kept going. People waiting for a dip or retest were “locked out”.
○ NRG: Watch for a place to buy this new leader. Webby started position on Friday, exit at lows of last few days
○ BROS: Webby, bought it, but worst base he has bought in his life. But in the model book, Hansen looked like this. Webby sees it as a double bottom, but a bad one, which is why MarketSurge has it as a cup in progress. Webby will exit at the lows of the last couple of days. We are above 200dma and in a power trend, so Webby is more aggressive.
RCL: very deep base, much more than previous. Normally you would not touch it, but in the context of this market correction, it is ok.
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5/19/25 - Today’s market was brought to you by Resilience.
Gap down open on silly news*, then marched up to finish at highs and positive on S&P and Naz. This really confirms the strength of the power trend that started Friday.
Justin notes that today was an engulfing bar that finished at the top of the range. Which is a little more than just an upside reversal. Don’t know what the candlestick name is, spinning top?? Usually means the market (or stock) wants to go higher.
*Moody’s downgraded US debt, but the other two ratings agencies did so a year ago or so. This should have never caused a 1.5% futures decline, IMHO.
Still some good setups out there.
5/20/25 - Time to rest.
The markets have trotted up the hill at a good pace, and now we would like to see them rest for a while, take a nice walk along a level trail before we start another run. The current resting action is very nice and tight, today was an inside day. If we can finish the week with no big moves, we could see more handles on stocks in bases. As long as we stay above the 200dma, we should feel confident.
IBD notes this
It’s been 20 trading sessions since the Nasdaq’s follow-through day on April 22, and the index still hasn’t shown a distribution day, or higher-volume decline. It’s been an impressive run indeed and should give growth investors confidence about the underlying health of the stock market.
S&P picked up a mild distribution day today.
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5/22/25 - Saul Goodman?
It’s all good man! Market had a tantrum yesterday when the 20-year Treasury action did not go well, but today was pretty flat. Still above 200dma (except for equal weighted RSP). Small caps still look awful. They need lower rates.) Ten-year rates did fall below the 4.6% level after poking above it today.
IBD reminds us that market pauses allow the moving averages catch up to the price and lets setups build handle or just keep setting up nicely.
There are rumors that tariff talks with China are “moving along”, but that is a classic ambiguous term Trump would use, could mean anything. “Hey, look at the guy jumping off the cliff, he sure is moving along”.
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We are heading down for a 3rd leg. 5/23/25
Very broad statement, are you referring to a specific stock/index or all in general or ??
Can’t say it’s the happiest day so far but hard to tell less than 2 hours into the market that we are looking at a pending moving down over 20%.
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Lake I was referring to the whole market but at this time it doesn’t look that bad. Although the S&P did drop below the 200sma this morning. Most of my stocks are not doing bad although Uber did hit my stop. We should know more this afternoon but I did not like the opening. I have been expecting a 3rd leg down but I am fully invested at this time.