It actually stayed above the 50.
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5/2/25 (Fri) What could go wrong?
Another good week. Naz and S&P up 1.5% for the day and above 50dma and 21dma. S&P had the longest weekly winning streak in 20 years. Both moving toward the 200dma which Webby says has a normality of choppiness. He did go over a number of âsimilarâ markets to show this and one should watch that part of Fridayâs show.
Webby pointed out the chop around the 200dma on the 1998 rally. This is the S&P, the Naz just moved through it like it was not there.
Earnings this coming week.:
Earnings: Mon: PLTR, VRTX. Wed: Uber (AM).
A large number of leaders beyond Berkshire Hathaway and Palantir report this coming week. TG Therapeutics (TGTX), DoorDash (DASH), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Uber Technologies (UBER), Axon Enterprise (AXON), Fortinet (FTNT), Argenx (ARGX), BellRing Brands (BRBR), Carvana (CVNA), MercadoLibre (MELI), Talen Energy (TLN) are just a handful of the key reports.
Friday Video with Webby
â Webby reminds us that subsequent FTDs are indicative of a good rally, the more the better.
â Webby says we had a subsequent FTD on the Naz (looks like they were point to 4/24), but I see that day had lower volume, so I am confused about their definition.
â A key [coming] indicator for Webby is 3 days with close above 200dma, that is when we might really be in a good rally. Lots of algos and traders focused on the 200dma. It would be normal and natural to have some chop around this trendline. Webby says he has taken a little off the table because of that (he notes that he did get aggressive and wants to lock in some gains before we get in a fight with the 200dma).
â If QQQ gets back above 439.62 (the last marked high), Webby would probably add that exposure back
â XLF and financials is a good place to look right now.
â VXUS is strong and Webby âmade a mistake selling it from Swing Traderâ. You could see years of outperformance. On the monthly chart you can see the RS crossing above trend lines. Webby notes that if lots of big funds decided to go from 5% x-US to 10% x-US, that could be a huge long term move.
â SPOT Webby âI went very heavy into it todayâ He reduced exposure to PLTR due to earnings on Monday and put the money in SPOT. He would sell if it goes below Fridayâs low.
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You sure it wasnât 4/23?
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It must have been 4/23. I ignored that because the gap-up made me think it was only a small gain, but when I looked it was a +2.5% gain.
SFM: Sold my position for a tiny gain, but I wanted available cash. It had earnings a couple days ago and is doing nothing. It tried to breakout but reversed down.
RBRK is breaking out today, I might pick that up at end of day. ATGE broke out yesterday and looks good, but I have LRN in same group. I might want to save the cash for an UBER or VRTX breakout. MELI is falling back into buy zone on low volume.
Take a look at NEXN. ZS is in a stage 2 consolidation and is looking strong. I have been adding to a core Motley Fool position since it moved above a consolidation area, Maybe if we have a market fight around the 200dma, this will go sideways and provide a good opportunity.
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I sold GEV, HWM, Loar and Pen to get some cash today and bought More RBRK, and Hims, Hims reports today but they brought on an Amazon exec that started their pharmaceutical division. I also bought CRDO and put a stop below the 200sma. I like those easy to figure out stops, Either it does well or I am out with little loss. I also bought TVTX on a double bottom breakout. My PLX is down today but I have a very small position in it since I expect it to be volatile.
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5/6/25
Markets have been fighting gravity since Friday. Monday and Tuesday opened with gaps down, then pared losses, but faded into the close. None have tested the 200dma, and are now bending down toward the magnet of the 50dma.
S&P picked up its first distribution day today. Exposure remains at 40-60%, but seems like we might want to reduce that if we donât get better fast.
Fed wraps up meeting on Wednesday, but no one expects a cut at this point.
Futures out about 0.8% on rumor that Trump will sit down with China next week, but that could change 5 times by then. If we gap up on that, then go below the 50dma tomorrow, that will be bad news. SH, SQQQ and SARK are inverse leveraged ETF should the 50dma be penetrated.
IBD
A stock market pullback right now would be normal. But it also wouldnât be surprising to see the market rally fizzle out around these levels, especially if Trump tariff news turns negative.
Despite a couple of relatively calm sessions, Trump tariff headlines could still send stocks skyrocketing or plunging.
The current pause could let some leaders forge handles or pull back to key levels. So look for new setups.
But if this is the start of a bigger retreat, investors will need to pare or close out positions. Some trimming may already be occurring for specific stocks. Have your exit strategies in hand.
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5/7/25 - No Manâs Land
Naz and S&P keep bouncing around between 50 and 200dma. Yesterday I said it looked like the 50dma was a magnet attracting the market down, but today it looked like it repelled it back up.
The Nasdaq composite was the weakest of the major indexes, but reversed higher late in the session and finished up 0.3%. The tech-heavy index remains down 1.3% for the week but continues to hold clear of its 50-day moving average.
The S&P 500 squeezed out a lift of 0.4% Wednesday. It is now down 1% this week but is above its short-term moving averages and its 50-day line.
Fed says they are still waiting for data to tell them what to do. I heard one commentator say this piece of wisdom âIt is better to be behind the curve than in front of the wrong curveâ.
Trump"
âBig News Conference tomorrow morning at 10:00 A.M., The Oval Office, concerning a MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY. THE FIRST OF MANY!!!â
(futures up) But his definition of âbigâ can sometimes be disappointing. All the talk has been about India, but we know their parliament must approve, so that does not seem likely to be a surprise. Japan would be big and is more likely than EU. Maybe South Korea.
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5/8/25 - When Trump says buy stocks, buy TQQQ for the day.
When Trump announced there would be a release of a tariff agreement, he also said people should buy stocks. He was right for the second time.
Naz finished up 1.07% on vol bigger than yesterday, to that is an additional FTD. It still swimming between 50 and 200dma. The 21dma is touching the 50dma and trying to rise above. S&P did not have an FTD, and its 21dma is not yet up to the 50dma.
On the negative side, the market faded pretty fast at the end of the day and the Naz only finished at 53% of its ATR.
Earnings reports are still producing some pretty nice gainers, just donât know which they will be.
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The stock market rally paused after big weekly gains in the prior two weeks and three of the last four.
Dow Jones futures jumped Sunday night, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed substantial progress following U.S.-China trade talks. Pete believes reality will be different when and if we get details on Monday. (there will be a joint release)
Dow Jones futures rose 1.1% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures popped 1.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 2%. Pete believes this would take IBD exposure to 60-80% and might be an additional FTD.
Futures signal the Nasdaq 100 will jump above its 200-day line while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite would near that key level. Webby said Friday he would get aggressive if we went above 200dma.
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I think Pete he said he would like the low above the 200sma and that if it was 3 days above he would get aggressive but maybe I misunderstood.
The discussion to start IBD Live this morning was Webster and three âstepsâ for reacting to major levels (the 200 in this case):
- Move above the 200
- Close above the 200
- Low above the 200
It can happen all at once. However, Webster then wants to see 3 lows above the resistance level (the 200) before he goes all in. That doesnât mean heâs not buying small amounts of whatâs working (he loves TWAPs) and selling some things that are not working. Justin likes to watch the 5 minute chart and see what happens. Scott St Clair sold off immediately to only 15% positions. He likes to take the âgiftâ of the gap up. Both Justin and Mike stressed closing positions of what isnât working such as SPOT this morning.
Weâll see.
Lakedog
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Yea I closed my gold miners today. Thanks Lake. I havenât bought anything yet want to see how this holds. Tsla, CRDO, AS, net, APP, GEV, MNDY, Pen, Alab all look interesting. Just at a glance.
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5/12/25 - Tariff Relief
We have seen Bessent gain significant influence over the hard-liner Navarro and it has paid off with the China negotiations.
Markets gapped up at the open, opened above 200dma and stayed there. Higher volume than yesterday certainly means an additional FTD and recommended exposure is now 60-80%.
As Lake noted, Webby wants to see 3 days with low staying above the 200dma before getting super aggressive, but Swing Trader is putting on positions as are IBD traders.
Naz up 14% since FTD of 4/22/25. That is close to being a âLife Changerâ rally.
