11/24/25 - Strong or Wrong?
We looked good today. A very strong looking move after the Friday reversal, and as such, a follow-thru of sorts. However, we still have lots of work to do. We are just at the 50dma on SPY and Naz, so need to move above that. We also need to get above Thursday’s highs. It seems traders need to start some small positions in good setups with obvious stop loss areas. A bad example is CLS, it closed right below the 50dma on Friday and today shot up 15%.
If you buy now, you are 15% above the 50dma, which would be a classic stop loss area. You can’t buy now. If you set a 5% stop loss, you could get shaken out in the AM and miss 10% after lunch.
Look for stocks that held up well in the volatility and look for good stops to take a position (e.g. see the $GMED chart, or the morning opportunity today in IDXX after Friday’s close).
Here is our checklist of “buy switches” that will indicate growing strength in the recovery. Webby tends to punch the gas once we have 3 days of lows above the 21dma and where day 3 is an up day
11/25/25 - Progress
S&P, Naz and others closed above 50dma prompting recommended exposure to move to 20-40%. We did move a tiny bit above the 11/20 highs, but could not close above it.
Keep looking at the stocks that held up well during the decline. “Heat” stocks that crashed below the 50 and have not even made it back yet should be avoided. SPY and QQQ are a “safe” way to rebuild exposure.
11/26/25 - Progress
Checked off a few more today (21dma and 50dma are very close to each other, so two birds with one stone)
Technical Analyst Katie Stockon thinks we a few days of momentum left, but that this is just an interruption in the correction. If we hit new highs, the reassess.
Refresher….
Market School Counts
- 0 - In correction (0% invested)
- 1 - FTD 20%
- 2 - xx (55%)
- 3 - xx (75%)
- 4 - xx (90%)
- 5 (6,7) 100% invested
You add “1” for different good things that happen. For instance, after the 8/13 FTD, the S&P then got above the 21dma, so that took us from 1 to 2. On 8/15, there was a subsequent FTD, so that took us to 3. The S&P low got above the 50dma and that took us to 4. If we get below 21dma, 50dma, etc, the we start subtracting. This is how they decide on their exposure levels
Update: after hours, exposure was raised to 40-60% as the strength noted in the above checklist has put us into a “resumed uptrend”. Distribution days are now tracked at Naz 4 and S&P 6
12/7/25 (Sunday)
Technicals are looking much better as shown in checklist below. Just waiting on new power trend (and new market highs). Recommended exposure is 60-80%, but we do have 5 distribution days on Naz and S&P500.
12/10/25
Today recommend exposure went to 80-100%.
Naz and S&P gave ten consecutive days with lows above 21dma. 21 is above 50dma. Looks like we meet all the criteria for a Power Trend. Webby will be “punching the gas”
Start of a Power Trend
A power trend starts when these four events occur simultaneously on a major index:
The [index] low is above the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) for at least 10 days.
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The 21-day EMA is above the 50-day simple moving average for at least five days.
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The 50-day line is in an uptrend.
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The market closes up for the day.
Update: 12/11/25: Naz tested the 21dma on ORCL mess, but it rebounded nicely. S&P did not really get close to 21dma. Markets still look strong. IWM is powering up after Fed cut rates, but it has been a heartbreaker all year.
12/15/25 - Day two…
Of our next “3-day correction”.
S&P held the 21dma, but Naz fell below the 50dma. RSP actually had an up day, showing it was the Mag-7 hurting the market.
Ideally, we open low and reverse up and Naz gets above 50dma as do many leading AI stocks.
Recommended exposure still 80-100%
12/22/24
Power trend was interrupted shortly after it started, but the indexes are back above their 21dma (Friday) and look to close with the low above it today. Have also been above the 50dma.
I suspect recommended exposure will move from 60-80, to 80-60% with a good close today. Webby is worried that the Wednesday market closed at the lows without any buying support at the end. If it had finished at the 40% daily range or so, he would have been very bullish by Friday.
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1/20/26
Ugly down day, both S&P and Naz finish solidly below their 50dma. Naz was a gap-down open below the line. Both finished at or near the lows of the day.
Recommended exposure reduced to 60-80%.
1/22: Trump walked back military takeover of Greenland and claimed he had a “framework” for a deal. Makets responded well over last two days. Naz and SPY are back above 21dma and their lows today were above the 50dma. Recommended exposure still 60-80%
1/27: 80-100% exposure. Naz and S&P have last two days’ lows above 21dma. Webby likes to push on the gas if there are 3 days like that.
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2/5/26 - I am become death, destroyer of worlds.
Naz has been terrible and S&P only a little less so. 3 consecutive days closing below 50dma and on above average volume each time. 5 of last 6 days are down. AMZN down 11% after earnings report as they project CapEx way above expectations. This seems to guaranty a repeat of today. Let’s see, 24,000 x 10% = 2400. 24,000-2400 = 21,600 target for a standard 10% correction from the high. Even with all this increased spending from AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, and META, NVDA can hold the line, much less move up. Lots of sellers and no buyers as people seem to want to rotation out of MAG7 pretty fast.
7 distribution days on Naz, 4 on S&P. Recommended exposure 40-60%
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2/6/26 - 3 Dog Night
…or just another 3-day correction. Indexes rebound with big moves, but still have more to prove. The Naz ended its Power Trend Thursday, but not the S&P, so mixed message there. The S&P closed above the 50 and 21dma, but the Naz is still below both. Equal weighted indexes like the RSP and EQAL are at highs, showing the market is strong for everything but the biggest tech.
Recommend Exposure back up to 60-80%.
The Friday video with Webby was extremely good this week, lots to talk about. If you are wanting to learn more about swing trading and position trading and how to read charts, check it out this week and going forward.
The video starts with markets and then looks at sector funds and ETFS that have important messages. This week he looks at more stocks than usual and lets us know why he considers the charts broken (e.g. SLV) or ready to buy (e.g. VIK).
Stock chart reviews begin at the 26 minute mark with SLV, GLD, then RCL, CCL, VIK, NCLH comparisons. NVDA, TSM (strong), GEV (extended), IREN (broken),
Around the 1 hour mark they start looking at Webby’s market charts: Weekly candles, regression, RSI (Webby’s Really Simple Indicator) and the Bob Marley STR chart.
Regression trend for Naz is broken, but IWM is in good shape and had a nice bounce of the 50dma. RSP looks very good.
Webby says this “feels like early 1999” to him at the moment.
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3/2/26 - Upside Reversal
The market has been choppy and under duress lately. Recommended exposure it 40-50%. The Naz has 9 distribution days and the S&P has 7.
Today offered a ray of hope. The weekend war against Iran caused futures to sell of Friday night, and the market gapped down hard at the open. But the opening tick was the low of the day and by noon, markets were positive.
At the end of the day, both major markets had both upside reversals and outside days. This is the kind of day you like to see for a “capitulation bottom” in a bear market, but it is a nice day to have anytime. Volume was lower than Friday and the markets only up 0.36% to 0.4%. Both still below 50dma, the S&P just barely. A good day could take both above those trend lines. We had an “FTD in spirit” (per Webby) on 2/20, but it was undercut. This might be considered a confirmation of that or the start of a new attempted rally. Webby will tell us Friday I suppose.
Many stocks also had good upside reversals. Look for stocks that rebounded off the 21dma average and they were holding up better than the market. Look for the subset with high volume.
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