Market Health Tracking

[PuddinHead42]

8/22/25

Webby reviewed the 1980 market where the lows of Naz stayed above the 21dma for 109 days, then finally dipped below, like we just had. The noted that after the recovery from the 21dma break, it had a bunch of stalling days until it topped out around 200. This was like we did after our 8/1 break of the 21dma. So that made Webby expect the next break to hit the 50dma, but that did not happen this time. But the percent decline was enough to make it a precedent match.

If we were to close below Friday’s lows, that would be “problematic at many levels”.

• IBD (N5, S6) 80-100%

  • The Nasdaq composite soared 1.9% Friday. But this was not enough to prevent it from falling 0.6% for the week, snapping a two-week win streak in the process. The tech-heavy index retook its short-term moving averages, though, and still holds a gain of 11.3% in 2025.

  • The S&P 500 also pole-vaulted, notching a lift of 1.5%. The benchmark index also squeezed out a weekly gain of 0.3%, and has now risen in seven of the past nine weeks. It is a hair below all-time high levels and holds a 10% gain for the year. Advancers/Declinesr 9 to 1.

  • Small caps gave the bears a particularly harsh spanking, with the Russell 2000 index soaring 3.9%. It also turned in a weekly rise of more than 3%, and now holds a near-7% gap on its 50-day moving average.

  • Video with Webby

  • He is playing housing ITB, XHB and so is swing trader.

  • Webby notes that money has been spreading out from AI and NVDA into other areas like housing. Therefore, if NVDA does not have a great earnings report, it is not as important and impactful as it used to be.

  • Small caps are his largest position. Looking at IWM, and inside day on Monday would be normal and natural, a close below the gap low “would be really bad”.

  • XLK was up less than RSP and that shows relative weakness.

  • The CCL chart shows a big move above a shelf. Webby owns, but probably bought early in the day. He also owns RCL and VIK.

  • When a move comes like it did today, you need to get your exposure level up and Webby recommends doing it the ETFs on day one, then move into individual stocks.

  • Webby sees money moving to non-AI investments and he is trying to follow (thus the cruise lines above)

  • SPY weekly candle is "ideal". I think it is called a hammer, but has a long wick at the bottom, closed near highs, closed above last week’s highs. Shook out last week’s lows too. Good setup for next week.

  • Naz not as strong, finished a bit negative for the week. So Webby is reducing QQQ position and move into SPY

  • The regression channels show great action, they tested the 1 STD deviation lower channel line and bounced up AND moved above the 75% retracement line and that is one reason Webby got very aggressive. Expectations are that it regresses to the middle again and maybe overshoots.

  • It would be normal and natural for a move like this off an inflection point (Fed Speech) to continue strong. But in the 1980 precedent they are following/using, it did not continue for too long.

  • Swing Trader built up positions in ETFs and will start using those as a source of funds for individual stocks if the market continues to be strong.

  • Don’t get FOMO and chase something you wanted because you missed it. And don’t get stuck with laggards.

  • As a position trader, you need to do a lot of homework this weekend.

[PuddinHead42]

8/26/25 - Nice day.

Mostly waiting on NVDA Wednesday night. Distribution count is a little high, the distribution days themselves were mostly mild.

The Russell 2000 led the way with a gain of 0.8%. After soaring 3.3% last week, the small-cap index closed just below Friday’s high of 2,366 and remains a pillar of strength. The Nasdaq composite and S&P 500 rallied 0.4% as volume picked up the pace during the final 10 minutes of trading.

[PuddinHead42]

9/4/25 rebound continues

Blue chips on the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day up 0.8%, or 350 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, and the Nasdaq gained 1%, both closing just shy of their record highs. The small-cap Russell 2000 index also closed higher, rallying 1.3%

the 10-year Treasury yield dropped for a second straight session. It settled at 4.17%, its lowest level since April 29.

Friday, we get the jobs report. If it has just the right amount of weakness, the market could jump on high rate cut expectations. Assets that could move: IWM (and the 3x TNA), ITB (home builders), banks (HBAN is a strong regional bank near a buy point).

[PuddinHead42]

9/16/25 - who cares?

Today does not count, tomorrow Powell moves the market.

The Fed is expected to announce a quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. There could be some dissents, with a few officials calling for 50 basis points and even some opposed to any move at all. The rate-cut outlook will be key with Fed chief Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET hopefully providing some clarity. Investors are betting on quarter-point cuts in October and December

Powell causes more volatility than any other Fed chief, so be prepared for swings. Maybe if he disappoints in the speech, you bottom fish for when it swings back during the Q&A.

Shorts: SQQQ (3x QQQ), RWM (1x of IWM), SARK (1x of ARKK), FAZ (3x financials)

Leveraged longs: TQQQ (3x QQQ), TNA (3x IWM small caps). BMNR (is a Ethereum vault stock that seems to move like a levered ETHE). NAIL (3x home builders), FAS (3x Financials)

The distribution day count for the Nasdaq, currently at two, has seen some shifting recently. The Aug. 11 distribution day for the Nasdaq fell off the count after the close because enough time had passed — 25 days — to make it irrelevant. Also, the Sept. 2 distribution day fell off the Nasdaq’s count Monday because the index rallied 5% from the Sept. 2 close.

Meanwhile, the Aug. 13 stalling session for the Nasdaq will fall off the count Thursday, also due to time. Keep in mind that the Sept. 10 stalling session for the Nasdaq is not included in the current count because the distribution day count can’t have more stalling sessions than distribution days. For now, the distribution days included in the Nasdaq’s count are the Aug. 13 stalling session and the higher-volume decline on Aug. 19.

[PuddinHead42]

9/19/25 (Fri)

• Friday Video

  • Naz power trend was “under pressure” due to a cluster of stalling days, but it has been above 21dma long enough to be restored to a full power trend. (after 10 days with low above 21dma)

  • The Russell (IWM) has entered a power trend for the first time.

  • Market School: if you can close above the high of a downside reversal within 2 trading days, it negates the down day.

  • Remember to look at rallies from the old high, not the bottom of the base. The right side of the base is just rebuilding, which is a different phase of a rally.

  • Webby: Ethe looks stronger than IBIT

  • HOOD looks like an ascending base (3 pull backs). Found support at 50dma.

  • ORCL: “this is where is should turn and move up. May add to swing trader Monday”

  • Minute 46:42 review of market precedent from 1980. If we break the 21dma next week, it will match precedent and Webby will worry. If not, it breaks the precedent.

[PuddinHead42]

9/23/25 - Powell does it again.

Markets sold off when Powell said this today

Selling started to pick up the pace just after 1:30 p.m. ET as Wall Street parsed comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. In a speech to Rhode Island business leaders, Powell reiterated that near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, along with downside risks to employment. Selling gained steam during the Q&A session, when Powell answered a question by saying, "But you’re right, by many measures, for example, equity prices are fairly highly valued.

But remember the last time the Fed did this when Greenspan called “Irrational Exuberance” in 1996. The Naz continued up from about 1100 to 5100 before crashing. So, if we can get a 4.5x run before the crash, life will be great.

[PuddinHead42]

9/25/25 - Shakeout

Hot stocks have been shaken for a couple days and looked really bad today. Many had big losses, but some had nice upside reversals at lows, those are the ones to look at: IBKR, AMSC, TTMI, APP, CLS, LIF, PWR. PLTR has been pretty solid. Many tested 21dma and rebounded.

Stocks like OKLO that took bad hits and did not recover probably need more repair time before being considered.

Are we in a bubble? Check out the mixed data here:

Are AI Stocks In A Bubble? Here’s What The Data Says. | Investor’s Business Daily

[PuddinHead42]

9/26/25 (Fri) ok for now

• Video with Webby

  • The 1980 market precedent is still in play, which is unfortunate according to Webby.

  • Index action has been natural and normal. Another 2.5 day “correction”, where the second half of day 3 is a nice rebound. Naz did not go below 21dma. Low of the day for SPY and Naz were above 21dma, that is a positive.

  • Some stocks had unusual pullbacks.

  • Webby has decided that on swing trader, they will restrict themselves to “A-quality” setups until Naz hits a new high.

  • SMH looking really good, Webby just locking for an entry

  • QQEW looks like one of the best ETF charts. Friday was a Webby "setup day" = small spread, closing at highs in an area of resistance, expectations are that it will “rip” the next day.

  • Webby likes the Door Dash chart, steady earnings growth and a nicely formed cup with handle.

[PuddinHead42]

10/8/25 Strong like bull

New record highs, closed at top of range and both SPY and Naz are staying above 10dma and of course 21dma.

Growing warnings about bubbles, but that usually starts too early. Paul Tudor Jones said recently that he expects a “blow off top”. Which is to say, we will probably see a big run before a bubble bursts. He reminds us that October 1999 to March 2000 the Naz went up 100% before the bubble burst. Many people believe we are in a 1999 scenario, but I have seen some good arguments that maybe we are really more like 1997.

One chart showed the 1990s market starting in 1994 when Netscape was first released. That is the day the internet became truly accessible to the average person. They then overlayed this market by making the starting point the day ChatGPT was released, which made AI truly accessible to the average person. The similarities to chart patterns were astounding. That overlay puts us at 1997 instead of 1999, which gives us a long runway.

Here we are today

Here is what the 1990s did after this point

So, if the market doubles in a 6 month period, start getting out

Update: Jim Cramer put this on his show, he must be monitoring this board.

[PuddinHead42]

10/10/25 (Fri) Markets Get Trumped

Trump threatened big tariffs on China and the market immediately tanked. After hours he said “an additional 100% on all imports”. Trump likes to swing big and then ease off, so things may be much better by Monday.

The Nasdaq composite slumped 3.6% and closed well below its 21-day exponential moving average, a key support level since the April 22 follow-through day. For the Nasdaq, it was its worst one-day percentage decline since April. The CBOE Volatility Index, one of Wall Street’s favorite fear gauges, spiked just over 30% to its highest level since June

The Russell 2000 small-cap index swooned 3% and plunged through its 21-day line. Same with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, which closed with losses of 2.7% and 1.9%, respectively. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) plunged through its 50-day, falling 2.2% in higher volume.

The major markets more than just sliced through their 21dma, they are pretty close to the 50dma and could easily test it Monday

Banks EPS next week: C, JPM, WFC, GS

Investors probably should have taken some action to cut exposure and prepared to do more.

SQQQ is a 3x short of QQQ and SARK is a 1x short of the volatile ARKK fund. Good hedges if you think we are doomed for more. But if the market opens with a gap down on Monday, it may be too risky to have leveraged hedges.

Notes from Friday Video with Webby later.

[PuddinHead42]

10/12/25: (Sun)The Trump Giveth and the Trump taketh away…

then the Trump giveth back.

On Sunday afternoon, Trump was more conciliatory, writing on Truth Social, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”

In a later post, Trump said the Nov. 1 deadline is an “eternity,” but could advance the date if China takes further action

Dow Jones futures rose 0.8% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures gained 1.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.7%

• ideo with Webby

  • Swing Trader service went to all cash

  • It would be unnatural for the market to quickly retake the highs. It needs time to digest. [but it is a news driven event]

  • Desirable scenario for Monday is a gap-down, then a recovery. A gap up would not be normal and natural and Webby says “that would be weak”. (and this was before the Sunday Trump statements that made futures rise)

  • It would be normal and natural for the markets to spend a couple weeks inside the highs and lows of Friday.

  • Traders should have taken action. Swing traders should have cut a lot or all. Position traders should have at least cut their “C” stocks. Everyone needed to raise cash because things were changing.

  • Nobody knows how this will play out (not Trump, not Xi, etc).

  • Webby reminds us that it can be hard to understand days like Friday because the text-reading algos start making trades, the other algos kick in based on support levels and momentum. So ,it takes time to see what the real reaction is. Looking at the 5-minute chart, you might have thought that around noon things were settling. Then you can start taking action base on further changes in the market.

  • Over the next couple weeks, use feedback from your future trades to tell you if are investing correctly. If not, keep your positions smaller and smaller. Don’t be a hero.

  • Sometimes being in cash lets you think clearly.

Dec 18, 2024 looked like Friday and was also down 3.56% when Fed speak spooked the market.

[PuddinHead42]

10/17/25 - Markets Stressed

After the big Friday sell-off on China tariffs announcement, we hoped for gap down open with a nice upside reversal to shakeout all the weak holders. Instead, Trump walked back some comments Sunday and we go a gap open on Monday. But since then, the market has only bounced around “inside” the Friday high/low range. Wednesday and Thursday were gap opens, which ended in meaningful declines off daily highs by the end of the day.

We now have 6 distribution days on the Naz and 5 on the S&P with a recommended exposure of 60-80%.

A number of big speculative winners, including quantum play IonQ (IONQ) and nuclear startup Oklo (OKLO) are seeing some selling. So are “Trump equity plays” such as MP Materials (MP) and Lithium Americas (LAC). Recent breakouts continue to struggle. Choppy markets, especially with big intraday swings, are extremely difficult to navigate. There’s enough strength to trigger a healthy number of buy signals, but with rapid retreats to shake investors out.

A couple of bankruptcies freaked the regional bank sector. Lots of chatter about whether credit worries might blow up and hurt the market. My take of different sources is that it is not near a problem yet, but may be one day. One, maybe two of the bankruptcies was because of fraud and not economic problems. The big companies are still using cash or stock to make big CapEx investments. Once they start loading up on debt, then we can start raising yellow flags for a credit crisis. Bubbles end when leverage goes too far, credit tightens and companies can no longer get debt to fund unprofitable expansion. Then they can no longer pay the debt interest and it all blows up. Watch for that in a year or two

[PuddinHead42]

10/20/25 - Good, good, good, good vibrations

WH says shutdown may end this week. Bessent with meet with China counterpart. Could be empty promises but the market liked it and had a very good day.

Naz and S&P closed at or near daily highs after gap up opens, no sell-off at the end this time. Vol slightly above avg for Naz, but 10% below avg for S&P. A number of leading stocks also closed at or near highs, but some recent AI darlings continued to fall in contrast to the market: ALAB, APP, GEV, IREN. IONQ and OKLO fell. If your stocks are doing this or remain stuck below the 21dma, figure out what that means.

There are still 6 distribution days on Naz and 5 on S&P. We are looking for the markets to hit new highs, thus taking them above the downside reversal high from 2 Fridays ago. This was the first day with the lows above the 21dma. Webby wants three consecutive to have better faith in the up market.

10/21/25

Quiet day, S&P and Naz keep daily low above 21dma.

Beneath the surface, some hot sectors came under heavy pressure. Gold suffered its worst one-day loss in 12 years, with miners even harder hit. Nuclear stocks broadly extended recent slides, along with coal and data center stocks, raising some questions about the broader AI ecosystem. The recent weakness in AI-adjacent energy plays, including GE Vernova, coal, utilities, uranium producers and nuclear startups, is something to keep an eye on. Along with the retreat in data-center stocks such as CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS), investor enthusiasm for the AI trade is faltering somewhat.

[PuddinHead42]

10/28/25

4th day with index lows above 21dma, good juju. Recommended exposure 80-100%

[PuddinHead42]

11/6/25 - Change of Character?

Market was hit hard Tuesday, was it to be another 1-3 day “correction” ? Wednesday, it bounced back and stayed above 21dma, but today it fell again, this time below the 21dma. There are currently 2 distribution days on the Naz and 7 on the S&P. Both closed at or near the bottom of their daily range. Both have fallen below that 10/10 “wide spread day” top that we recently broke above. Market leaders are getting hit (e.g PLTR) Recommended exposure went down to 60-80%. Sure looks like a change in character.

Will we test the 50dma or fall below? Then what. We can’t know, but have to assume it is possible and start paring weak holdings.

Blue chips on the Dow finished the day down 0.8%, or 398 points. The S&P 500 cratered 1.1% and the Nasdaq sold off 1.9%. Small-cap stocks fell, pushing the Russell 2000 index down by 1.9%.

PLTR is definitely a market leader and finished just below the 50dma today, but a decisive break below the 50-day line on [recent] stellar results would be a bad sign for the overall AI-led stock market rally.

Build a list of strong stocks holding up well right now. When the market comes back, they will likely be new leaders. Look at GLW, FIX, SNOW, MDB, IBM (quantum), IBKR, APH, IDCC, PH, STX, WDC, LRCX, KLAC,

[PuddinHead42]

11/9/25 (Sun) - one love, one heart

Friday was starting out as an ugly day, but rumors that the CR might soon pass cause a major turnaround. Many stocks had an upside reversal from support areas such as the 50dma and 21dma. In the Friday Video, Webby indicated IBD investors’ best opportunities are off upside reversals because the stop loss area is very obvious and you can easily judge your max risk with a stop loss.

Webby particularly likes stocks that have an outside day on a big upside reversal because that has shaken out lots of holds with downside stop losses and when it reverses, shorts get squeezed and those stopped out might try to get back in, pushing the stock even higher.

The bad news is that we may have misses a lot of chances and may get a gap up open Monday that puts those stocks out of reach (e.g. riskier to buy at higher prices). Because…

As of late Sunday night it looks like the Senate may have a deal to pass the CR.

11PM: Dow Jones futures rose 0.15% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.2%.

It’s so nice when we all get along.

[PuddinHead42]

11/13/25: Hey, ChatGPT, W.T.F: ChatGPT: AI is getting slammed, ouch!

Terrible market day, markets near 50dma test. 4 distribution days on Naz and 6 on S&P. Recommended exposure 40-60%.

11/14/25

Futures show markets set to gap down below 50dma on open. This is an opportunity for a bottom and a reversal back up above 50dma. That would be a signal to start buying again. But if we close at bottom of range like Thursday, then the expectations are for more selling action Monday.

11/14/25 1:50PM

Perfect day so far, got the gap down open, set the lows and came roaring back above 50dma. Currently SPY and QQQ are around 70-75% “closing range”. If at the end of the day we are still above 50dma and above 40-50% closing range, then that will be a victory and expectations will be to stay above the 50dma and continue up. Expectations can be broken

Look for the stocks that held up the best. Who held the 21dma, who held the 50dma? These will be the ones to buy, not junk that happened to come back this time.

11/14/25: 8PM Update

The day closed well after the gap down open and a strong upside reversal. The SPY closed at the 70% level and the Naz closed at 72% of the daily range. This is a good thing. The SPY was slightly negative and the Naz slightly positive, nothing bad there. Both closed back above the 50dma, another positive sign. Volume slightly lower than yesterday. Many of the stocks I follow did that same and some were strong enough to not be moved much by the market.

We are still at 4 distribution days on Naz and 6 on S&P with Recommended exposure 40-60%.

I will post some notes on the Friday Video later this weekend.

Update 11/16/25

Webby was not on the video, so Justin and Ed covered. Adequate, but not Webby. Justin notes…

• It would have been natural for you to trim position on Thursday as the markets headed to the 50dma. That would have given you cash to buy on Friday’s upside reversal, potentially at lower prices than you sold for.

• Justin was planning on selling more on Friday but always wants to watch the first 5-15 minutes of the market. In this case, the market quickly turned up and instead of selling, he started buying and moving up stop losses during the day.

Market wisdom from Joe Fahmy…

Fahmy told Investor’s Business Daily’s “Investing with IBD” podcast. “I think this could be very similar to the 90s where I’ve been saying … it could be a four to five year bull market.” “I still think we’re in a bull market, but there’s going to be shakeouts and pullbacks and rotations and corrections along the way,” Fahmy said. “It’s just the nature of the markets.” “Moves in the market can go on much longer than we can expect,” Fahmy said. “Just when you think something can’t go higher, it usually does.” “It’s never going to be smooth. It’s not going to be straight up,” he said. “I can guarantee there’s going to be major corrections and shakeouts and pullbacks along the way.”

[PuddinHead42]

11/17/25 Rainy days and Mondays always get me down.

Friday set a low with an upside reversal that gave hope to the bulls. Despite falling below the 50dma, indexes closed above it. Today, hope was revoked. Markets rolled over, finished below the 50 and finished at bottom of range. they came very close to closing below Friday’s lows, which are line in the sand.

Things look particularly bad now. Fed rate cut odds in December are below 50%, way down from near certainty. The market awaits NVDA earnings while some famous hedge fund managers are ditching or shorting it.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2%, or 550 points, with only three of its components finishing higher. The S&P 500 closed 0.9% lower. The tech-dominated Nasdaq suffered a loss of 0.8%. The Russell 2000 index of small caps slumped 2%.

Volume on the New York Stock Exchange turned higher compared with the same time on Friday, leading to another distribution day for the S&P 500. Volume on the Nasdaq was lower. Investor’s Business Daily maintained its recommended exposure at 40%-60%, but investors would be better positioned at the lower end of that range. There are 4 distribution days on Naz, but 7 on S&P.

[PuddinHead42]

11/19/25 NVDA Day

The stock market rally raced higher at the open, erased those gains, before climbing into the close, led by the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq-100 index increased 0.6% while the S&P 500 rose nearly 0.4%. While rather pedestrian gains, they surely beat a 0.1% edge higher by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a fractional dip by the Russell 2000.

Fed notes indicate mixed opinions and a general feeling to not cut in December. CME FedWatch on Wednesday showed bond trading activity points to a 33% probability that the Fed will trim rates on Dec. 10 to a target rate of 3.5%-3.75%.

The NAZ and S&P closed below their 50dma trend lines. Afterhours, NVDA beat and settled about 5% higher than the close. Many AI stock were lifted and the QQQ futures are up 1.61%, indicating markets might move above the 50dma tomorrow. Keep in mind, where they close is more important than where they open.

[PuddinHead42]

11/20/25 Market Pukes Up A Lung

Very bad day. Started out hot in the morning and quickly reversed down. Plummeted below 50dma gain and finished at lows on higher volume. All bad signs. In the charts below, you can that the “wide-spread-day” had essentially the same high and low as today, very interesting. We did violate those lows a bit today. If they don’t hold, I don’t see another logical stopping point until the 200dma.

Update: Recommended exposure moved down to 0-20%, which is equivalent to “Market In Correction”. Time to build watch lists for the inevitable recovery. Look for the stocks that have held up and have high RS ratings.

Stocks moving below the 50dma are strong candidates for selling. If you are holding trading stocks still above the 21dma, consider stop losses below the 21dma.

We can’t know how far down we will go, so don’t assume a v-shaped recovery will start in a couple days. Be wary of bounces. In the absence of a follow through day, resist buying with the market below the 50dma and your stock below the 50dma.

If you have big gains, don’t just standby and watch them evaporate.