Market relief may be premature

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-this-stock-market-bounce-wont-hold-06202f70?mod=hp_lead_pos5

Why This Stock-Market Bounce Won’t Hold

After ‘Liberation Day,’ stocks fell a lot, perhaps too much. They have now rebounded a lot, perhaps too much.

By James Mackintosh, The Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2025


There are more than 50 countries with higher rates due to snap back in July. And then there is China, with which the U.S. has only just managed a break-the-ice meeting. The danger that tariffs, especially on China, feed through to higher prices and empty shelves is real. The U.S. consumer has been living in the calm before what could be a very large storm, and much slower economic growth. Investors certainly hadn’t priced in a halt to China trade before April 2, and if that lasts even for just a few months, it could hurt growth a lot…

The flip side is that the rise of gold—and the devaluation of the dollar—suggest a lot of fear remains. The S&P is down about 5% in gold terms from Liberation Day, and buys 18% less gold than it did at its February high…

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Market traders (and the computers that follow their trends) are always optimistic. They front-run the Federal Reserve over and over despite being disappointed many times before. They invest based on hope in a market dominated by the whims of President Trump.

But the dollars are worth less in terms of gold and an international exchange.

Wendy

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Crypto is over 100,000 so people are really excited.

It’s going to be hard to get over the 200sma with that resistance at 5786.95. Should get really volatile here.

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