Mekong22 Jan 2024 portfolio update

2024 got off to a weak start for my portfolio. It started with AEHR’s earnings release at the beginning of January. Fortunately, I had sold the majority of my Aehr shares since their previous earnings release and it was a small remaining position. Tesla also slid in January, and The Trade Desk was down a bit. But on the bright side, today’s (Feb 2nd) gains recouped about half of January’s decline.

I sold the last of my Aehr, and also decided to sell my small Celsius stake, and I initiated four new try out positions in new companies that I’ve been watching for a while and finally dipped my toe in.

So I started out January in the red:

-9.7% YTD Jan

As of the end of today, February 2nd, I’m back to about -4.9% YTD.

My portfolio is still very concentrated, although it is seven positions, three of those make up the majority.

This was my allocation at the end of the year 12/31/23

36.6%  (TTD) The Trade Desk 
36.0%  (MDB) MongoDB     
22.2%  (TSLA) Tesla    
 3.3%  (CELH) Celsius
 1.8%  (AEHR) Aehr Test Sys 

and this is what it looks like at the end of January 2024:

38.0%  (MDB)  MongoDB     
36.9%  (TTD)  The Trade Desk 
20.1%  (TSLA) Tesla    
 1.6%  (RELY) Remitly Global
 1.5%  (IOT)  Samsara 
 1.2%  (ELF)  elf Beauty
 0.8%  (NU)   Nu Holdings

So no changes at the top, but I’ve reallocated what was invested in AEHR and CELH to the four new starter positions. I did add some new funds that were primarily put into TSLA in late January as the shares got cheaper, which is why the Tesla allocation didn’t drop as much as the share price did last month.

Fortunately, I had sold much of my Aehr after their previous earnings release when many of you, wiser than myself, sold out entirely. I still look back at when the CFO was retiring after many years with the company, last year, right when we were anticipating the company stepping up to some new hyper growth phase, and it always nagged at my thinking “why would this guy be leaving the company now, of all times, if the company is truly about to take off”. and I should have listened to that voice in my head and stayed out of the company completely.

Celsius, I’ve never been that comfortable with as an investment. The company is great and firing on all cylinders, but I just can’t get my head around how much future growth is already baked into today’s prices and what expectations come along with it. At some point, the current growth rates are going to fall off when the impact of the new pepsi distribution laps into the prior year comp and I worry about how the market will react when/if there is a sudden falloff in the growth rate. There is a very real chance that they continue to exceed everyone’s expectations and the share price continues to rise for a long time. I just don’t feel confident enough to bet on that, so I felt better to sell and shift those funds into other companies that I’m gaining more confidence in.

My two top holdings at the beginning of 2024 (TTD and MDB) have been two of my top three holdings pretty consistently for the past four years.

It is a very concentrated portfolio which I don’t generally recommend, but as of right now I don’t have many other companies that I have a high level of confidence in to allocate investment funds towards.

Here is the year to date performance of each of my current holdings. Excluded are any companies I have already sold out of in 2023 (e.g. AEHR and CELH). Also note that the companies that I didn’t own at the beginning of the year (RELY, IOT, ELF, NU), this only shows the performance since I purchased them:

Dec 31 2023^ Jan 31 2024 YTD Gain
TTD 71.96 68.43 -4.9%
MDB 408.85 400.52 -2.0%
TSLA 248.48 187.29 -24.6%
RELY^ 18.18^ 17.14 -5.7%
IOT^ 33.06^ 31.40 -5.0%
ELF^ 154.82^ 159.53 3.0%
NU^ 9.00^ 8.61 -4.3%

^ Because I didn’t own RELY, IOT, ELF, NU until this year, the “December 31st” numbers above are not their 12/31/23 prices, but the stock price of my initial, most significant purchases.

Most of the shares I hold in TTD and MDB were purchased in 2018 and 2019 at much lower costs. The largest portion of my Trade Desk shares were purchased in January 2019 for $11.39 and are up +501%, while most of my MongoDB shares were purchased in July 2018 for $57.39 and are up +598% now.

The Trade Desk (TTD) (earnings upcoming on Feb 15th)

I still feel that TTD has a long runway of growth ahead and are in great hands with CEO Jeff Green. Each of the big streaming platforms (Disney+, Netflix, , even Amazon Prime!) have been adding ad-supported tiers over the past year or so.

I admittedly feel nervous about the short term and what the next few quarters will hold for the Trade Desk. I could see disappointing earnings and guidance scaring investors…but I do think there is some of that already baked into the share price so if they at least meet expectations, think the shares will hold up alright, but we shall see. I don’t think right now, at this price, is the right time for me to trim the position, but I’ll be listening to the upcoming earnings call and considering my position again later this month.

Looking at the YoY growth rates by quarter over the last few years:

       Q1    Q2   Q3   Q4
2020   33%  -13%  32%  48%
2021   37%  101%  39%  24%
2022   43%   35%  31%  24%
2023   21%   23%  24%  18%(q4 guide)

And sequential growth (note that Q1 is typically going to be negative sequential growth given the seasonally strong holiday quarter in Q4)

       Q1    Q2   Q3   Q4
2020  -26%  -13%  55%  48%
2021  -31%   27%   8%  31%
2022  -20%   20%   5%  24%
2023  -22%   21%   6%  18%(q4 guide)

MongoDB (MDB)

There hasn’t been much news on Mongo recently, but this is the company I own that I’m the most cautiously optimistic about their upcoming earnings, given some of the strong reports from other tech companies. Unfortunately, they are not a calendar year end, so we’ll have to wait another month before we hear from them.

MDB YoY growth

       Q1    Q2   Q3   Q4
2020   46%   39%  38%  38%
2021   39%   44%  50%  56%
2022   57%   53%  47%  36%
2023   29%   40%  25%  20%(q4 guide)

And MDB sequential growth

      Q1   Q2  Q3   Q4
2020  6%   6%   9%  13%
2021  6%   9%  14%  17%
2022  7%   6%  10%   8%
2023  2%  15%  -1%   4%(q4 guide)

I know it’s been a couple weeks but I’m still digesting Tesla’s report and haven’t gotten to listen to the call yet, so I don’t have much to comment on them this month, but I’ll be catchup on them over the next week. Regardless, that is a holding that I really anticipate holding tight for several years and allowing it to play out while doing my best to ignore the ebbs and flows and possibly adding to the position opportunistically.

That’s it for this month. Thanks so much as always to Saul especially, and to everyone else that posts and contributes to making this board so special.



Hi @mekong22.

I always enjoy your updates.

For TTD, last year the stock price bounced up to 90 in July (I think after inclusion in a Nasdaq index), but drifted back down after that, and more interestingly, absolutely did not join the year-end broad market rally.

Do you think this (very recently) sluggish stock price is related to Q3 earnings and/or forward guidance? Or is there any concern about Google’s decisions with cookies maybe weighing on the stock? Or something else or combo of factors?

Appreciate any opinions/thoughts that you might have.

I don’t put too much weight into short-term stock performance, but sometimes the market is indeed pricing in certain near-term outlooks (and can be right or wrong).

Happy Groundhog Day!


After last week’s earnings releases, I would say the expectations for a bounce back in the advertising space based off of Google and Meta’s results bodes well for The Trade Desk and the re-acceleration in the cloud area for AWS and a very strong result for Microsoft Cloud/Azure and the stated end of cloud “optimisation” has a positive potential read across for consumption based cloud players - especially MongoDB and Snowflake and possibly Cloudflare and Datadog. (I hold TTD, MDB, SNOW, NET & DDOG).

WRT NU, whilst I understand the story and like what I see, my play in the LatAm fintech space is MercadoLibre. MELI seems to be on a roll and near a 52 week high and closing in on its ATH however I am looking at Argentina and what is happening there with caution. I don’t know how material the current NU or future NU regional growth story’s exposure is to Argentina but something to keep an eye on.



Ant, could you elaborate on what you are referring to happening in Argentina, for those of us who don’t follow Argentina closely. Thanks,


Currently, NU is in Brazil, Columbia, and Mexico. I haven’t heard of any Argentina expansion plans. @anthonyms, regarding Argentina, are you referring to the reduced GDP forecast for Argentina by the International Monetary Fund last week? See article from Reuters:


In November, Argentina elected a new, far-right libertarian president, Javier Milei, who campaigned with a chain saw, representing a promise to cut everything down. This article is from right before the election, but he won it.

Argentina was not in great shape to begin with and change was no doubt needed, but I’ve seen enough horror movies to be wary of people wielding chain saws.

He has begun taking the saw to government programs and people are already in the streets:

NU does not have any current exposure to Argentina and I don’t remember hearing it mentioned in any recent videos/calls.



Argentina recently devalued its currency by 50% after Milei was elected. Imagine working your whole life to save up some amount to retire with, then in a single day your purchasing power is cut in half.

But wait - there’s more. Argentina has done this over and over again to pay down their huge debts. They devalue the currency so much that…

" Argentine currency has experienced severe inflation, with periods of hyperinflation, since the mid-20th century, with periodic change of the currency to a new version at a rate ranging from 100:1 to 10,000:1. A new peso introduced in 1992, officially the peso convertible de curso legal , was worth 10,000,000,000,000 (ten trillion) pesos moneda nacional, the currency in use until 1970." (From Wikipedia)

Basically, they devalue their currency so much that they need to create a new currency to replace it with periodically.

This is possible because the government can print an unlimited amount of “fiat” currency to pay off debts that are denominated in that currency.

All of that should have a familiar ring to it.


Hi Saul

WRT Argentina… in a never ending cycle of political and economic instability, last year’s election brought a new head of office who is labeled as an Anarcho-Capitalist.

He is looking to use shock therapy, free market economics and some tough medicine to resolve Argentina’s issues which includes the usual teetering on the edge of a sovereign debt crisis, (Argentina is the largest borrower from the IMF by far) and 200% inflation rate which is the highest in the world.

Some of the policies that are being considered include:

  1. Increases in taxation
  2. Dollarisation of the currency and abandoning the Peso
  3. Removal/closure of the central bank

Despite winning the popular vote in the recent run off election with a 54% majority versus the Peronist populist party for a 4 year mandate, Javier Milei now faces the usual public resistance and backlash in the form of street protests and national strikes on actually trying to enact any of the radical reforms he was elected to pursue.

This isn’t going to make things easy for the people of Argentina or anyone doing business there. However to be sure, regional and local incumbents like MercadoLibre, NU and D’local will no doubt be better placed to navigate the circus that is Latin American politics than say an Amazon.



MELI has weathered the violent economic South American country currents successfully for the last 10+ years. This includes political uprisings in Chile, Argentina, and Venezuela. And it handled Covid. I have seen the center of Santiago, Chile and the Sheraton Hotel burned and iconic historical structures covered in graffiti. The upper class is very protected by the Chilean government. Argentina has 25% of the people on the dole last I heard. People either can’t work or don’t want to so they are provided assistance. The conservative and liberal economic whipsaw will not likely go away anytime soon. Mercado Libre kiosks that supplement the app are frequently seen and they have succeeded where banks are mostly for the upper class. I am not exactly sure how or if its customers avoid the currency fluctuations, but MELI has always been masterful in their currency management. Vendors always scarfed my dollars. MELI does report in US dollars so there always is a currency FX impact but it is moderated by the many countries currencies and whatever magic sauce they use.




Apologies for the delay in responding, I had some surprise out of town visitors this week

Great discussion here

Wrt the sluggish TTD market price, I think it is more related to guidance and how much the market thinks they will realistically beat it by. Jeff Green has consistently said that google getting rid of cookies isn’t going to be a negative and will probably even be a positive for Trade Desk compared to the competition and at this point, I’d say we have little choice but to believe him until there is evidence otherwise. Jeff has a pretty good record as a prognosticator, so I wouldn’t be betting against him.

To me, historically over the five years I’ve been a TTD owner, the more I think I have an idea of what future events might impact the price of the stock, the more I realize I’m guessing on timing just like everyone else. During the last presidential election cycle, the stock rose steadily leading up to November 2020 (granted, it was coming from a depressed price in the heart of the covid year), but then the stock dropped from November to early 2021, including when they announced earnings for Q4 (the election quarter). Maybe the stock just got too far ahead of itself. Maybe the election spending wasn’t as big a bump as people were hoping for. Q4’20 was a +48% growth quarter, and even considering it was comp’ing against a pre-pandemic Q4’19 (albeit with no election), that wasn’t enough to boost the stock. There could have also been a lukewarm response to the first 2021 FY guidance, although I don’t recall offhand.

Fast forward two years, TTD told us the midterm cycle’s advertising spending in 2022 was going to be more than any presidential cycle year, yet Trade Desk stock stayed within a relatively low range throughout the end of calendar year ’22 straight through until they announced earnings in February of ’23. Again, there was some macro at play as all of our tech stocks were in the process of getting trounced in the second half of 2022, and TTD was no difference. However the end of 2022 into 2023 was a time when their topline growth shifted from the 30%’s to the 20%’s

Now guidance is for 18% in Q4, and that’s in a big election cycle against a non election quarter, so that definitely wasn’t what the market was hoping for. If the actual comes in, in the high 20%’s to maybe even touch on 30%, the market will probably be happy. That doesn’t mean there still could be an impact if they don’t like new guidance for future period. If it comes in, in the low 20%’s, I would expect a negative market reaction. Mid 20%’s, around 25% is more what I would bet on as the real over/under this quarter.

In the end, I think 2024 is going to be a good year for TTD, assuming no major macro economic surprises…but I also think the next quarter or two may still be iffy, and I won’t be surprised if the company is careful not to overpromise “if” they think some pessimism is already baked into today’s price.

The beauty of the company and their business model is that, at any time, there could be a sudden jump in revenue with relatively no increase in costs. They have the platform set up with great tools. They have the ad inventory partners set up on one side, and they have the ad buyers set up on the other side. They can theoretically sit back when things ramp and let the buyers and sellers transact more and more with little to no hands on needs from Trade Desk themselves. It can be really hard to predict if and when those stretches will occur.

But I do think that expectations are not all that high right now (for the current quarter and near term) and that is already pretty well baked into where the stock is trading now. It can always go lower, of course, but I would bet the odds are better for them to at least meet, if not exceed what is expected next week. It will be interesting to see and to hear if Jeff Green has his usual positive upbeat tone or if anything else can be gleamed from the call. I’ll be looking forward to it either way



Expectations are certainly low. Are they sandbagging or setting themselves up for another small beat? It’s pretty difficult to glean from the numbers.

Here is a table of the quarterly guides:


The guide for Q4 is at least $580 million. This reflects about an 18.2% YoY growth rate, which would show a significant deceleration from Q3. We’ve seen significant deceleration in Q3 to Q4 of 2021 and 2022 as well.


However, QoQ growth rates have accelerated the last 2 quarters, which would indicate dome business momentum. Generally, but not always, the YoY growth rates have decreased from quarter to quarter. Q4 YoY growth rates have historically been lower Q3 YoY growth rates. But not always.


At $613 million in Q4, TTD would have to attain 25% YoY growth. This would reflect a sequential increase of $120 million, which seems a bit ambitious, given the fact that they they brought in $95 million and $96 million sequentially in Q4 of 2021 and Q4 of 2022 respectively. If they do hit this number and Jeff provides some decent guidance, I think we’d see TTD get back into the low $80s. At the guide, however, they would only bring in $87 million sequentially. This would be very disappointing, in my opinion, as a lot of growth investors will probably decide to hit the exits. We could be looking at a sub-$60 price if this happens.

CTV is the primary growth driver for the business while Netflix and Disney have reported very good quarters. In Q4, the economy was on better footing and companies in general, as evidenced by reported Q4 numbers, seemed to be doing better. Jeff told us on the last earnings call that his guide was conservative. Will this translate into better numbers for TTD?

I’m not good at predicting revenue numbers. But I think we’ll see at least $590 million (20.4% YoY growth) and should be closer to $600 million (22.4% YoY growth) reported revenues. Nevertheless, guidance will be really important as the market cap to TTM sales will be a bit over 18 if they report between these numbers, which is relatively high for a company with just over 20% growth.

It is possible, given the positive news with the economy, that their YoY growth continues to accelerate and hit 25% ($613 million). The beat would have to be huge (5.7%). They did beat by 5.5% in Q1 after all (see below).


At less than 20% growth accompanied by more cautious guidance, I’ll probably reduce my position. But I don’t think either will happen. I think TTD can get back up to 25% YoY quarterly growth this year, maybe even higher at the end of the year. We’ll find out soon.



DJ -

Good writeup. FWIW, the consensus analysts’ Q4 guide into last Q was $610.8M. I thought that was way too high, which turned out to be true. The stock got appropriately hammered after issuing the $580M guide (I thought the Q4 guide would come in around $590).

The analysts have now adjusted those guides down to $582M for this quarter and $451M in Q1 accounting for the seasonal dip. Like you, I think we see something $590M+ with a $460M+ guide. If we see those numbers, we hopefully see a calmer market reaction.

In my opinion, the bulk of TTD’s thesis is the almost guaranteed record of US political spend in the second half of 2024. Any macro loosening and/or additional shifts to streaming during that stretch would simply be icing on the cake. That could in turn lead to reaccelerating top line growth against some relatively easy comps. If that happens, I’d expect TTD to find its way significantly higher as the year goes on. I’ll be listening closely to see if Green drops any political spending hints on the call now that the primaries have started.