I’ve been on the road a lot again this month, so finally back home and able to post a monthly update for June
Regarding my future portfolio updates:
At least for now, I’m not sure how useful it is (either to myself or to the board) for me to post updates every month. My stock portfolio is pretty concentrated around one company (Tesla) and that is largely driving the ups and downs from month to month.
TSLA is obviously a polarizing company and those of us that are positive on the opportunity likely get most of our information and updates on the company from many external sources out there, and anyone that is negative toward Tesla probably aren’t going to be swayed by much of anything posted here.
I’ll probably dial back my update posts to quarterly, or only when there is significant major news on companies I follow, or if I start to move more into other new companies.
As with all of my TMF posts, nothing that I post here is intended to be, or should be considered, investment advice.
Here’s how things look cumulatively for 2025:
+3.1% YTD Jan
-17.9% YTD Feb
-31.2% YTD Mar
-26.3% YTD Apr
-12.3% YTD May
-19.8% YTD Jun
My portfolio is still very concentrated, particularly with an outsized large position in Tesla.
Tesla fell about -8% in June, which largely drove the decrease in my portfolio this month.
These were my positions at the end of the month, in 6/30/25, largely unchanged from last month
Large/Oversized (TSLA) Tesla
Medium (MELI) MercadoLibre
Medium (CRSP) Crispr Theraputics
Small (TTD) The Trade Desk
It is a very concentrated portfolio, now down to only 4 companies which is small even for me, but as of right now I don’t have many other companies that I have a high level of confidence in to allocate investment funds towards.
Note that a portion of my holdings includes December 2026, and June and December 2027 (TSLA) LEAP call options.
After I sold out of Amazon in April, I bought back in a small AMZN position in May last month, but then sold it off again in June to pull those funds out of the portfolio for other needs.
I continue to believe that, if Tesla can perform well and succeed with their newer business segments, that the company could be worth much more in the future than it is today. So I am comfortable allowing it to be an outsized large portion of my portfolio.
Company Updates
Crispr Theraputics (CSPR)
CRSP stock has been on the move lately, up about +33% in June, and it is up another, close to +20% so far during the first two weeks of July.
The company did release an update on their pipeline, which (while most of it is over my head from a technical standpoint) seems to have been pretty favorable news
There were a few recent reiterated strong ratings from some of the analysts that follow Crispr
Needham reiterated a “Buy” rating with an $81 price target
Piper Sandler reiterated an “Overweight” rating and a $105 price target
JMP Securities reiterated a “Market Outperform” rating with an $86 price target
HC Wainwright & Co. reiterated a “Buy” rating and a $65 price target
Chardan Capital reiterated a “Buy” rating and an $82 price target
Even with CRSP’s recent stock price run up, most of these targets are still significantly above today’s $56/share price.
In coming quarters and years, I expect the success of Crispr will be tied to the rollout of their first approved therapy, casgevy, which is a cure for sickle cell disease, and progress of rest of their pipeline. Very speculative and high risk high reward, but I’m comfortable holding this one for a while and see how things play out.
Tesla (TSLA)
Robotaxi Ride Hailing Service Launch
Tesla’s long term goal focusing on autonomy took a step forward in June as the company launched its robotaxi service in Austin TX. They are keeping it very small with a very small number of vehicles in a small geofenced portion of the city and an invite only number of customer users. Although there is no “safety driver” in the driver’s seat, their robotaxis currently have an employee in the passenger seat for all rides, likely to some extent for safety with the ability to stop the vehicle, but also to gather feedback and report back to the company of any issues, even minor ones, that arise during the rollout.
So far, I haven’t seen any reports of significant incidents or real accidents with these vehicles, which will be key to their ability to expand and develop the service in to a signficant portion of the company’s revenue, profitability, and valuation. Time will tell how quickly and safely the service grows.
Self Delivery to Customer
Tesla also had the first self-delivery of one of their cars, directly from their Texas manufacturing plant to the customer’s home, 30 minutes away. The video from a camera placed inside the car is available online. Although there were no safety drivers or passengers at all inside the vehicle, and Tesla has stated that, at no time, was anyone remotely operating the car, it did travel across both local roads and highways enroute to the buyer. Interestingly, in subsequent interviews, the buyer was not signfiicanlty familiar with Tesla’s self driving capabilitys when buying the car. I’m sure he was just located in a particular location where the Tesla team thought would be a good area and route to do the first autonomous delivery when they reached out to him about doing the self driving delivery. So far, this is just a one-off, and who knows how often they will actually self-delivery vehicles in the future. At a minimum, it will be restricted to customers living near Tesla’s manufacturing facilities.
Q2 Vehicle Deliveries
The stock got a small pop when second quarter vehicle deliveries were reported to be more than 380,000 for Q2, which was higher than many people expected (although essentially in-line with the average wall street estimate). Note that the total was down compared to Q2 of the prior year, believed to be driven in particular by soft sales in Europe.
Elimination of $7,500 EV Tax Credit
The big bill passed by the US House and Senate and signed by the president, as expected, eliminates the current $7,500 tax credit for purchasing a new electric vehicle in the united states after September 30, 2025. Vehicles must be delivered by the end of September, as a car that is ordered but not delivered until early October will not qualify for the credit.
I expect that we are going to see a very strong deliveries number for Q3, most likely over 400k, maybe even 500k, which could be their highest quarter ever, as some buyers will pull purchases forward to ensure they qualify for the credit before it’s gone. On the flip side, that could mean a weaker Q4 or future quarters.
Lower Cost More Affordable Vehicles
Tesla has stated that they planne to introduce new lower cost more affordable vehicles in Q2. No such announcement came, although it is likely that the company has paused the introduction of lower cost vehicles while they waited to see how the EV tax credit played out.
Some people believe that, now that the EV credit ends after September, that the company plans to hold off on more affordable vehicles until Q4. I would concur that this is a smart approach. If you are expecting a surge of demand over the next three months, sell the higher cost, higher margin vehicles incentivized by the $7,500 credit for as long as you can. Once the credit is gone, that would be the ideal time to offer lower cost alternatives going forward.
Dojo Chips Moving to Volume Production??
This week a post online claimed that Tesla’s in house Dojo computer chips will be moving to volume production soon. This is still highly speculative as the “source” referred to is a chinese article online and neither Tesla nor it’s employees seem to have confirmed or denied the report so far. In 2024, CEO Elon Musk did claim that Dojo would go into volume production by the end of 2025, and it is believed that the chips will be comparable to Nvidia B200 chips.
Although the report has been getting posted and re-posted quite a bit the past few days, I wouldn’t put too much belief into it unless the company were to confirm. If Tesla is successful with Dojo, which I believe are specifically designed for vehicle (and robotics?) autonomy, it would likely lead to a decrease in costs compared to buying chips from Nvidia (probably significantly less, maybe a fraction of the cost) and even more importantly could eliminate the need to wait in line for certain allocations of chips from Nvidia who can only make so much product at a time and has to allocate their sales among many customers that want to purchase them. Even if Dojo is a success, I think Tesla would still be buying some (many?) of their chips from Nvidia going forward as well.
Stock Performance
Here is the year to date performance of each of my current holdings. Also note that, if I invest in new companies that I didn’t own at the beginning of the year, this will only show the performance since I purchased them:
| Dec 31 2024^ | June 30 2025 | YTD Gain | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 403.84 | 317.66 | -21.3% |
| TTD | 117.53 | 71.99 | -38.7% |
| MELI | 1,700.44 | 2,613.63 | +53.7% |
| CRSP | 39.36 | 48.64 | +23.6% |
That’s it for this month.
Thanks as always to Saul and everyone else that makes this board so great!
-mekong