November was a better month for my companies. My portfolio is still dominated by large positions in The Trade Desk and MongoDB, and to a lesser extent, Tesla.
Despite the negative reaction to TTD’s earnings release, the stock actually finished the month almost exactly where it started. Both MDB and TSLA were up about +20% this month, and my small AEHR and CELH positions were down -2%.
All combined, that moved my portfolio’s YTD gains up from +56% at 10/31/23 to almost +70% at the end of November.
So here is the latest YTD performance summary:
+11.3% YTD Jan
+16.2% YTD Feb
+23.5% YTD Mar
+29.1% YTD Apr
+61.4% YTD May
+87.4% YTD Jun
+118.9% YTD Jul
+94.6% YTD Aug
+80.0% YTD Sep
+56.7% YTD Oct
+69.7% YTD Nov
My portfolio is still very concentrated, still only five positions currently. I had no transactions this month. Three of the past four months, I’ve had no trades or changes at all.
This was my allocation at the end of the month 10/31/23
37.6% (MDB) MongoDB
36.7% (TTD) The Trade Desk
18.8% (TSLA) Tesla
3.9% (CELH) Celsius
3.1% (AEHR) Aehr Test Sys
So Mongo leapfrogged TTD back to the top spot and Tesla grew a bit while the others just proportionately came down a little bit, percentage-wise.
MDB’s earnings come out this Tuesday so that reaction could drive my results for December.
Here is the year to date performance of each of my current holdings. Excluded are any companies I have already sold out of in 2023 (e.g. Cloudflare, which was up about +50% YTD when I sold and redeployed those funds earlier in the year). Also note that the companies that I didn’t own at the beginning of the year (TSLA, AEHR, CELH), this only shows the performance since I purchased them:
| December 31st^ | November 30th | YTD Gain | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | 44.83 | 70.46 | 57.2% |
| MDB | 196.84 | 415.74 | 111.2% |
| TSLA^ | 161.3^ | 240.08 | 48.8% |
| AEHR^ | 32.04^ | 22.96 | -28.3% |
| CELH^ | 51.19^ | 49.51 | -3.3% |
My overall portfolio performance was driven by having so much concentrated in two stocks (which, again, I generally wouldn’t recommend) which have increased +57% and +111% so far this year.
^ Because I didn’t own TSLA, AEHR, or CELH until this year, the “December 31st” numbers above for Tesla, Aehr, and Celsius are not their 12/31/22 prices, but the stock price of my initial, most significant purchases. Also note that the CELH purchase price is split adjusted for their 3 for 1 split.
Most of the shares I hold in TTD and MDB were purchased in 2018 and 2019 at much lower costs. The largest portion of my Trade Desk shares were purchased in January 2019 for $11.39 and are up +519%, while most of my MongoDB shares were purchased in July 2018 for $57.39 and are up +624% now.
Here’s a look at the trend with the most recent guides for next quarter penciled in for my two largest holdngs (with q3 (MDB) and q4 (TTD) guidance penciled in):
The Trade Desk (TTD)
Looking at the YoY growth rates by quarter over the last few years:
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 33% -13% 32% 48%
2021 37% 101% 39% 24%
2022 43% 35% 31% 24%
2023 21% 23% 25% 18%(q4 guide)
And sequential growth (note that Q1 is typically going to be negative sequential growth given the seasonally strong holiday quarter in Q4)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 -26% -13% 55% 48%
2021 -31% 27% 8% 31%
2022 -20% 20% 5% 24%
2023 -22% 21% 6% 18%(q4 guide)
MongoDB (MDB) (earnings this Tuesday Dec 5th)
MDB YoY growth
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 46% 39% 38% 38%
2021 39% 44% 50% 56%
2022 57% 53% 47% 36%
2023 29% 40% 29%(q3 guide)
And MDB sequential growth
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 6% 6% 9% 13%
2021 6% 9% 14% 17%
2022 7% 6% 10% 8%
2023 2% 15% -5%(q3 guide)
The Trade Desk
TTD’s earnings were as-expected last month. The company continues to take market share as they grow at a rate that is several times that of the overall advertising industry.
Although the +18% growth guidance for the fourth quarter appears low, note that in Q4 2022, the copmpany estimates about 4% bump from the midterm elections which won’t impact Q4 this year. Adjusting for that, an apples to apples growth rate would be +22% implied by the guidance, and if TTD has just a small beat, they would maintain their +25% growth rate (adjusted for election spend). Next year, in 2024, they will get a material postivie bump for the presidential cycle election advertising spend.
MongoDB
MDB’s stock price has drifted up in recent weeks, at least partially due to strong results from other companies whose performance is driven by many of the same trends.
I expect that Mongo is going to continue to benefit from the needs of growing AI capabilities among their customers. They still have lots of opportunities to shift more of their existing customes DB needs onto Mongo, and I really like this company’s position and the opportunities ahead over coming years.
We’ll get a lot more information about how things are going on Tuesday.
That’s it’s for another month. Wishing everyone a happy healthy holiday season and rest of 2023!
-mekong