I took a starter position in MNDY last week and added to it today.
Things I like about the company are:
YoY revenue growth: $71M= 94% YoY
Sequential revenue growth: 20% QoQ (!)
Adj Gross Profit Margin: 90% (!)
$NER: >120%
The number of paid enterprise customers with more than $50,000 in annual recurring revenue: +226%
YoY and +40% sequentially (!)
One thing we don’t look at a lot is relative valuation. I just do a simple Market cap/latest revenue x 4 to get a pseudo Price to Annual revenue comparison. MNDY’s “Price to Sales” ratio is calculated as follows:
MNDY “Price”: stock price x total shares = $406.49 x 43,993,679 shares = $17.9B
MNDY “Annual Sales”: latest quarterly revenue x 4 = $70,615,000 x 4 = $282,460,000
MNDY “Price to Sales”: $17.9B/$282.5M = 26
Aside: by comparison, the following companies have the following “Price to Sales” ratios (using the
same calculations)
NET: 64ish
CRWD:50ish
DDOG:45ish
LSPD:31ish
MNDY:26ish
UPST:17ish
Some have discussed MNDY’s potential share dilution associated with the share overhang. This is what I understand: As of today, there are about 44M shares (officially that equals the weighted average number of ordinary shares outstanding used in computing basic and diluted net loss per share, Non-GAAP, per MNDY IR) but as a reference, only about 253k shares traded today, or about 0.6% of the total number of shares.
The lockout period ends on 12/7.
According to seeking alpha, MNDY’s institutional holding are about 18% and insider ownership is about
21%. So if all the insiders sold their shares on 12/8 (which never happens on the first day after lockup ends), that would be around 9M shares, which would likely be a shock but it often comes back eventually if the fundamentals continue to be strong
I’ve seen others suggest ~40M shares will unlock on the earlier of 12/7 or 2 days after second quarterly earnings and ~4.42M shares will unlock early, on 9/8, if share price is higher than about $206 for a period of time, which is looks like it will achieve.
But I typically don’t worry about trying to time the share overhang dynamic, although I could be wrong on this one. Would be interested to hear other’s perspective on the share overhang dynamic