It means the short’s heyday with this company, may have run it’s course.
Pick any other word you like, But thats what I meant. This company has good fundamentals and good management. The shorts have been playing the fear of what might just turn out to be groundless accusations. Or if there are grounds they will be weak and perhaps fabricated or exaggerated. In any case, I think the risk reward equation favors the investor.
I am invested in BOFI not because Saul is invested in this company.
But I thought He picked a good time to get back in.
And Like I said, I liked Saul’s thinking when he observed, after a good earnings report, that a couple of short attempts failed. the market ignored the shorts and BOFI"s stock went up.
I personally got back into this stock during April, May and June.
gettinsumcoffeee - NASDAQ will show 8/15 after market close tomorrow. I plan to watch it every two weeks to see if that data point supports the Short days are over.
I think this stock has a major milestone press release coming up that will ignite the dry powder that has been set. But that is probably too dramatic for reality. We’ll see. I’m in heavy at $17.49 cost basis.
There is speculation that Erhart shared confidential BOFI information with his mother. Illegal? I think so. There is also speculation that Erhart’s attorney shared confidential BOFI information with Seeking Alpha writers and hedge funds.
Two, BOFI share price rising above $25/share.
The problem for shorts is there are not enough available shares outstanding to cover. I wouldn’t be surprised to see short interest dropping to 18-20 million shares as of August 15… but that is still a ton of short interest that will need to be covered.
7/29 short interest was 24,529,686 shares with 23 days to cover
8/15 short interest was 23,038,062 shares with 13 days to cover - Average volume way up.
In the right direction, but still a lot of shorts to go. Not as much drop as I was expecting, but other than one point in mid April, it hasn’the been that low since mid Nov 2015. I would think that if the court case is dropped, the short interest will have a significant drop. Then the longs should get the anticipated squeeze!
Next short interest update is after market on 9/12.
Bofi has now been up for 7 days in a row, on up market days and down market days, averaging 2% per day. I’d suspect it will have to have a rest here somewhere. (Nothing goes straight up).
Saul
And I am having NON buyers remorse and trying to work out what would be a good LONG TERM hold entry point. Wait for it to come down or jump on board now as it might not come down.
And I am having NON buyers remorse and trying to work out what would be a good LONG TERM hold entry point. Wait for it to come down or jump on board now as it might not come down.
If you believe in the company long term (believe the growth will continue and the fraud/illegal accusations is not an issue) this is a good entry point. Price to Book is around 2X which isn’t too bad given their historic range and growth rates.
BOFI is currently only +5% YTD. Expect some volatility going forward however.
" And I am having NON buyers remorse and trying to work out what would be a good LONG TERM hold entry point. Wait for it to come down or jump on board now as it might not come down."
Why all or none? Buy a partial position and leg in.
trying to work out what would be a good LONG TERM hold entry point
There are significant option activity (Put purchases), implying there is some significant event to happen which can impact share price.
Having missed the rally, Why you want to take the risk now. If you are interested only in long-term, then wait for the news cycle to play out and you can buy afterwards.
Don’t chase performance or missed rally. That’s a sure fire way to lose money.
Thanks all. It really can be a difficult decision. If the short attack was largely without basis it is possible that the stock might never see these levels again. On the flip side a rapid gap up could need to rest and revisit lower levels and could give an opportunity to buy at lower levels. The idea of easing into a full position is always a good one.
…trying to work out what would be a good LONG TERM hold entry point…
I agree with Rob. Ease into it. Buying some will ease your anticipation and concern. That way whether you are right or wrong to buy now, you can add more later as you get more confirmation of your thesis on why you want to invest in the company. The best stocks I have “watched” are ones that constantly month after month look like you have missed the opportunity.
I believe it will still jump up after the formal dismal of the court case is announced. Assuming it is dismissed, as no one knows for sure at this point. You can also assume there will be drops due to profit taking even if everthing goes well for longs. One person here mentioned they have already decided to take what they got today.
Of course, I still believe PN is going to pop up a little when EBIX and PN agree on a final price too. I have much less in that one, but time will tell. There is still a risk that EBIX will drop the price due to the missed quarterly earnings report. That one is supposed to play out by the end of next week.
I also want to point out your own words “LONG TERM”. If you mean many months or years, it should not be a huge concern that it has run up just recently. Follow Saul’s knowledge base - assess it based on the price and performance now.
The bottom line is that none of us know which way it will go. I am beginning to believe that Shorters play an important role in market health - sort of like the burning of a forest to renew it. I don’t like fires either though.
7/29 short interest was 24,529,686 shares with 23 days to cover 8/15 short interest was 23,038,062 shares with 13 days to cover - Average volume way up.
8/31 short interest was 23,375,947 shares with 14 days to cover.
Increased very modestly from the 2 weeks prior. Have to say that really surprises me and means that the 21% increase during those 2 weeks was not due to shorts exiting. This means the spring is still fully loaded (or the noose is still hanging).
I would think that if the court case is dropped 9/23, the short interest will have a significant drop. Then the longs should get the anticipated squeeze!
Next short interest update is after market on 9/26 (for data as of 9/15 that is submitted NLT 9/19). Who do you think benefits for this LONG 7 DAY WAIT before the public is told this information? In today’s world this delay is completely unjustified! We won’t see the post hearing date data until Oct 11th.
I would think that if the court case is dropped 9/23, the short interest will have a significant drop. Then the longs should get the anticipated squeeze!
What if the reason behind short thesis has nothing to do with court case?
What if the reason behind short thesis has nothing to do with court case?
Would it matter what the shorts’ thesis is if the court case results in a price rise driven by the longs? (Asked seriously; while I think I understand a bit about shorting I know my understanding is tenuous at best.)
