"mungofitch 99-day rule" triggers

I pulled a year’s worth of VOO stock price data from Yahoo and put it into a spreadsheet. I then made a new column whose value is a function: MAX( prior 99 day’s of the closing price column). After hours price of VOO is above the last 99-day-high value, which is $377.86.

It triggered!


I’m remaining patient. You may disagree – that is what makes markets.


ALL of my regular indicators are in “buy” territory as of today. There is still reason to wait a bit but really, what would I be waiting for? It could continue up for a while… then roll back for a while offering a buy-in point on or about where it is today. It can stop for a while and stay flat for some months thus providing a buy-in point… on or about where it is now. It could crash to an all new low… yes, but how likely is that given everything we’ve seen the past few months? Don’t tell me of recessions. Supposedly we will have one in 2 more quarters…? Whatever? They’ve been crying about it over a year now. I only care about market action. Any recession based on the past 1 to 2 years worth of economic activity might sting like a butterfly and float like a bee.

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Clever! One to remember. :slight_smile:

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Your correct.

If disco comes back we are in serous trouble.


No. If you look at this graph of SPY with the 99-day price channels

you can see that today’s closing price was above the price channel. This means that tomorrow the line will move up.

I suppose there’s no need to remind you that you had posted that you were waiting for this signal. As for the bottom, mungofitch’s major bottom detector went off on the last day of September, just a little over 10 days before the October low four months ago. The market is now almost 15% higher.

Here is the METAR thread from October 1st:

And here is what Jim wrote that day:


The ship is turning. PEs are still high. Normalization is different than a market correction.

This is actually the first time I have looked at just the period of three to four years. It is interesting. This was the last time the market normalized and launched into demand side economics.

Weekly Chart

Mungofitch’s rule does not include this pattern. We are in this pattern in all likelihood. I get our descent was more controlled. There are some economic patterns that are different this go around with counter cyclical economics as the overlay.