Microsoft?
Should we start the list with Clippy?
Mike
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No one said it was over. I said you were wrong when you claimed that the NFT market wasnât in decline.
$360 million in volume in a month isnât nothing - but itâs also not the $17 billion in volume in a month that the market had at the beginning of the year. Thatâs an enormously large drop in volume. Your math trying to show that it wasnât a very large drop in volume was incorrect - because even if we express the January and recent numbers in native ETH (and thus remove the exchange rate volatility), trading volume is still an order of magnitude lower.
Rather than using your bad math to try to convince your CEO that there hasnât been a winnowing of the NFT market, you might instead want to take a clear-eyed look at what a drastic reduction in the NFT market might mean for your platform. Trading volumes declining by 90+%, whether measured in dollars or ETH, likely has some real significance if youâre launching an NFT platform. If your business works even at the much-lower (but still non-trivial) $300-400 million per month level, rather than $17 billion per month, then great. But using fuzzy math to pretend that massive decline didnât happen is unlikely to be useful to your analysis. Regardless of what generalizations you make about âmillennialsâ (and Iâm not sure that theyâre as excited about Web3 as you think, see below), the NFT marketâs taken an absolute walloping.
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And the $17 billion was a spike.
We will get back to the spikes. But they are spikes.
Was it in an ascent at $17 billion and a descent at $360 million?
Again the millennials are my target audience. The millennials are doing well with less exposure to the equities markets. While the stock market may descend further Eth might start to rise again. It is up from $1000 to $1300 or 30% in a matter of a couple of months.
Let me ask is there more risk to the downside for ETH or the US equities markets?
Is there currently more upside for ETH or the US equities markets?
Really? ETH is down 72% from its 52 week highâŚ
I am serious.
Buy low sell high? Remember? The best investors are well aware of what is low.
Running from lows to chase highs? Not my cup of tea.
But youâre not selling ETH - are you? Youâve discussed your project as being an NFTâŚsomething. NFTâs are typically purchased using ETH, but itâs entirely possible for ETH to be a success and any given NFT project to not be. The fact that the NFT market has fallen independent of the decline in the ETH/$ exchange rate ought to concern you, because thereâs no guarantee - or even a reasonable expectation - that the NFT market will rebound if (or when) the ETH/$ exchange rate strengthens.
And as for that, as BJ points out ETH (like most cryptos) is much more volatile than equities. So yes, itâs up a lot more compared to its near-term low - and also down a lot more compared to its near-term high. Equities havenât bounced up 30% in three months - but neither are they down 60% over the last six months.
Millennials used to love crypto and NFTâs when they were doing nothing but going up and making money. Now, Millennials have been exposed to their first 'crypto winter, which has (unsurprisingly) dampened their enthusiasm for those products. That isnât just limited to crypto. The same thing happened with equities. It was fun to make all kinds of tendie money being a diamond-handed ape trading meme stocks in Robinhood - until those stocks started to regularly lose value instead of just going up.
That doesnât mean that Robinhood has disappeared (or that NFTâs will, either). But expecting a second round of fanatic Millennial enthusiasm may not bear much fruit, just because ETH might end up being very valuable and useful for things that arenât NFTâs.
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Al,
You are missing the purpose of Eth is in the NFTs. The two are linked.
If Eth goes up from here it is liquidity in the NFT market.
You are not looking for the value in Eth or NFTs.
My concern is elsewhere. I have corresponded in the last 36 hours a few times with Opensea. They will eventually lift a limit on copies. There is no answers on if that work is going on now or when the limit will be undone.
This is actually okay. My videos are taking time to rack up stats that would give me a much larger reach. In the process my NFTs would sell with more demand. As a designer that is my goal of creating the 3D animations.
More time while waiting for the limit to be lifted meaning into next year is good with me.
In the meantime my videos are getting a bit more reach over the last three weeks. That process can lead to my 2D art selling long side the video posts. Just in time for the November selling for Christmas. There is some promise there.
It all takes time.
My own opinion the down side is in equities not the two major cryptos.
How? If ETH strengthens against the dollar, people who hold ETH might feel richer - but people who want to buy ETH will have to pay more for the privilege. It doesnât necessarily translate into any more activity in the NFT market. Especially if ETH increases for reasons unrelated to NFT trading. It doesnât increase âliquidityâ at all - the amount of ETH doesnât change.
It definitely transfers into more activity at higher prices in the NFT market.
Eth was created to have contracts, NFTs in the process of that creation by design. People buy Eth to work with NFTs buying and selling. The two are integral to each other.
Eth and Btc are pent up buying power. Just like having $1 trillion of equities or $1 trillion of USD are wealth. Pent of buying power as a wealth effect.
Besides no one in the Eth market is thinking like you. They are thinking of how to make more wealth using both Eth and NFTs.
Of course - theyâre fans and believers in those markets. But that doesnât mean that theyâll be able to make more wealth using ETH and NFTâs - or that making more wealth through ETH will necessarily create wealth for holders of NFTâs generally, or any given NFT specifically.
Thereâs no guarantee that if ETH prices rise again that we will see an increase in NFT activity again. Thatâs not even that crazy a scenario - if the next hot thing on ETH is anything other than NFTâs, you can see ETH demand rise without increasing NFT activity. ETH success is necessary, but not sufficient, for NFT success.
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Al,
The NFT does not need to be artwork. The contract and token can be anything.
Investment grade art over time is the best investment in the world. CAGR 25%, investment grade art. That use of NFTs wont go away. It wont be sidelined. It will remain center stage.
I know. Weâve talked about that a lot. Thatâs not the point. The value of ETH doesnât have to follow the value of NFTâs. ETH can have value independent of whether itâs used a lot or a little for NFTâs (a la BTC, which doesnât have anything like an NFT framework on its chain). ETH can go up in value without seeing an increase in NFT activity. ETH can go down in value even with an increase in NFT activity. People might find an actual, relevant use case for ETH that doesnât involve NFTâs at all. Etc.
Though I donât understand your contention that NFTâs donât need to be artwork, but that the use of NFTâs for something related to investment grade art is the use that wonât go away and will always be center stage. What are you trying to say?
Al that is what I am saying. You get too into what you are saying to read what I am saying.
This discussion reminds of the game Minecraft my kids used to play. Minecraft had a virtual currency called minecoins that could be used buy virtual stuff important to the game but of no real relevance to the real world. One could use real dollars to buy minecoins, which in turn can be used in the game to buy something called texture packs. The cost of texture packs in minecoins is fixed regardless of how much the price of buying minecoins in dollars might change. This is a case where the virtual currency has a value in real money but the virtual thing being bought does not.
I suspect the analogous is true with most NFTs where the âvalueâ is limited to the community using the virtual currency and therefore is fixed to that currency rather than real money. A recent example is an NFT of Jack Dorseyâs first twitter that was bought a year ago near the ETH peak for the equivalent of $2.9M, but after the ETH crash was found at a recent auction to be worth less than $10K. Distinct smell of tulips.
$2.9 million NFT of Jack Dorseyâs first-ever tweet plunges in value (cnbc.com)
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I hope you are successful! However I donât enjoy that this thread is about crypto. Is there not a crypto board somewhere.
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The floor price is 77.9 ETH after a massive drop. That is $101k as the floor price. Back in February we are talking $250k. Yuga since has sold property in the metaverse for close to $500 million.
In the fine art world there is far more to the digital art in some cases than people older than the millennials believe.
The art needs Eth and nfts. The Eth and nft world need the art.
The volatility is the only thing that is real. The current bottoming action is in line with the previous nose bleed high in 2018 talking Eth.
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Would you mind posting a link to your videos? What are you selling? Iâd like to see.
'38Packard
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38,
Sorry I have had another requestion from Al at one point to post them later.
I have decided since the prices will be on them to keep them out of the discussions here. And to truncate my discussions of their actual sales in that spirit.
It is a bit like showing up here after they sell and saying this is a larger part of what is on my books. We do not any of us do that here. Or at least I am not going to be displaying my book.
We talk when we programmed. We talk what we sold xyz, the good old days. We do not talk our book.
When sold that includes the actual prices I get as a public display.
3M. They have well over 100,000 patents, average something like 4,000 new patents a year, but only a small fraction go on to be commercial hits. And thatâs the point_ itâs that small fraction that pays the bills for the rest.
3M, kind of like Google, tries to make a certain percentage of its revenue from products developed in the last 5 years - itâs their ethos, their driving goal, to be research first, then commercialization later.
[FWIW, Consumer products from 3M that we commonly know: adhesive command strips, painting tape, post-it notes, etc. is actually a small fraction of the company, something like 15-20%. They have other divisions like safety and (I forget what else), but they all run the same way. Engineers and researchers are free to experiment on whatever they want a certain percentage of the time, those potentials are winnowed, eventually a few commercial products are introduced, and a fraction of those go on to become hits - but they pay for everything.]
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