Shareholders know best.
What are the odds that Musk actually collects the $1 Trillion (i.e., market cap has to grow over 600% within 10 years?)
intercst
4 Likes
Dunno. I think shareholders were foolish (small ‘f’), but that’s what they did. I don’t have a stake in TSLA, so it’s none of my concern. I will say that I can’t think anyone is worth that much. Even a visionary like Musk (or, perhaps, former visionary…10 years ago he was doing stuff that really paid off; but maybe not so much now(??)).
6 Likes
He’ll almost certainly collect some of it if the stock does even average - which will make him the most highly paid CEO in the history of capitalism by an order of magnitude or two. If Tesla more or less tracks the S&P500’s historic rate of growth over the next ten years, he’ll pick up the first two tranches. He might have to play around with having one of his other companies buy a lot of robots (whether they’re capable of doing anything useful or not), or some FSD subscriptions. But with each tranche being worth about $25 billion that’s a no-brainer - even if you have to buy a few million FSD subs at $100 a month for a few months, or buy a million “Optimus Lite” robot vacuum cleaners, you’re still coming out $20+ billion to the good.
Everything beyond that requires the stock to outperform the market and (eventually) get to some milestones that are harder for him to fudge.
3 Likes
I wonder if Boeing shareholders wish they had a visionary like Musk at the helm? {{ LOL }
intercst
3 Likes
I wonder if the Optimus robots are loyal to their buyers or Musk?
intercst
1 Like
Nice if you can get it, of course:
Getting all the shares available under this package over the next 10 years would be the equivalent of earning $275 million a day, dwarfing any other executive pay package in history.
We, the Owners of Tesla, will decide how we want to reward our CEO.
The Captain
1 Like
chuckle Especially when the CEO can vote his own shares in Texas. 
5 Likes
Actually I think it’s fairer to say the Board of Directors, who are friends, decided on a pay package, and shareholder had the choice of a bad choice or an even worse one.
And when did people start getting the opportunity to vote on their own pay package?
2 Likes
Once we allowed them to put their golf buddies and fraternity brothers on the Compensation Committee.
intercst
5 Likes
Ummmm, The House? The Senate?
2 Likes
Now he (allegedly) starves children that depend on USAID. Big step down, I would say.
How many TSLA shares do you own?
The Captain
As I have posted before, I am short Tesla, and yes, I am now just slightly underwater. Luckily I am still positive thanks to my arbitrage of Twitter when he bought that, so on the “Musk trade” I have some profit.
But it’s pretty clear to me that Musk has moved on from Tesla, doesn’t really care about it anymore, and that no incentive size package is going to change that. (I am disappointed, however, that a fair part of the new package is a chip shot for which he has to do nothing.)
2 Likes
This keeps coming up, but it’s worth looking at what the actual tranches are, and when they can be reached:
-
There are two sets of milestones: Operational and Market Cap
Here’s are the lists:
-
They have to be paired to release a tranche of stock. That is, if TSLA rises to $640 tomorrow (market cap of $2T), Musk doesn’t get anything - there has to be an Operational Milestone achieved as well.
-
While the 20m vehicles delivered milestone is a “give-me” - that ain’t happening until like 2030. And neither are the FSD, robots or robotaxi delivery numbers happening any time soon. So, that leaves the EBITDA operational milestones to pair. TSLA’s EBITDA was $14.7B last year, and $3.49B for the last quarter, so it’s still a long way (4X) from getting to the first EBITDA milestone of $50B.
Net-net is that Elon is years away from getting even the first tranche of stock in this deal. Sure, it seems that even a Mary Barra could eventually get the first tranche doing nothing, but that’ll take half a decade and even that is assuming TSLA gets to $640 in that time, which it won’t do without tangible FSD/robots/robotaxi progress.
5 Likes