We need to increase oil & gas production immediately
I guess Musk isn’t concerned about US environment. I suspect US oil producers are drilling anywhere they can in the US & offshore. The only new plots would be in protected areas in natural wildlife areas.
Besides even if those areas were opened up for drilling the Ukraine war will likely be over prior to production. And bringing more oil production online is detrimental to the adoption of EVs. I don’t think Musk thought this through before speaking out.
I don’t think Musk thought this through before speaking out.
I believe he understands that oil drives the economy s well as 99% of the cars on the road. A recession will not be good for stocks with astronomical multiples, nor good for sales of “luxury” products to the middle class (which he hopes to accomplish in the next few years.)
While I am generally skeptical of his long-term thought process (but admire his remarkable accomplishments) I think he’s pretty aware of the risks of a long term oil shortage to the global economy.
“I think in 10 years oil will not be important to the global economy.”
A quote definitely worth remembering.
Way, way wrong, I’d wager. I mean, ~99% of new cars and light trucks being sold run on gasoline, 100% of new heavy trucks, 99% of new buses etc … All of them have an expected lifespan of more than 10 years so there’s no doubt that oil/gas will still be important on that basis alone.
In 10 years there will probably still be brand new vehicles, light and heavy, being sold that run on gas or diesel.
I wish it were conceivable that oil wouldn’t be important in 10 years, but I don’t see how it’s possible.
In 10 years there will probably still be brand new vehicles, light and heavy, being sold that run on gas or diesel.
In 10 years there will DEFINITELY be brand new vehicles, light and heavy, being sold that are made largely (not necessarily “mostly”) of oil-based plastics and use oil-based lubricants.
During The Great War Winston Churchill was First Lord of the Admiralty and one of his priorities was to switch the Royal Navy from coal to petrol. He declared that petrol was a legitimate war aim because Great Britain had Mesopotamian deposits in its sights. That was 1914 to 18, over 100 years ago. Coal is as vital now as then.
I think in 10 years oil will not be important to the global economy.
Won’t stand the test of time. The economy moves at its own pace and could care less what people think.
“I think in 10 years oil will not be important to the global economy.” — A quote definitely worth remembering. — Way, way wrong, I’d wager. I mean, ~99% of new cars and light trucks being sold run on gasoline, 100% of new heavy trucks, 99% of new buses etc … All of them have an expected lifespan of more than 10 years so there’s no doubt that oil/gas will still be important on that basis alone.
Africa’s bumpy road to an EV future www.energymonitor.ai/sectors/transport/africas-bumpy-road-to…
On the streets of Maputo, Mozambique, the majority of vehicles have one thing in common: they are at least a decade old. Brand new cars are a rare sight and electric vehicles (EVs) are nearly unheard of. Instead, most vehicles have been imported to Mozambique after years of use in Japan. The same is true in many other African countries: 40% of the global exports of used light duty vehicles (cars, vans, SUVs and pickup trucks) go to Africa, compared with only 2% of new vehicles…
In an “ambitious yet feasible” scenario in line with the Paris climate goals, 22% of global vehicle sales could be electric by 2025, rising to 35% by 2030. However, due to heavy reliance on used car imports and major infrastructure constraints, the pathway to EVs in many African countries is far less clear…
Electric cars remain rare in most of Africa. In South Africa, thought to be the largest EV market on the continent, only 1,000 EVs had been purchased by 2019 – out of more than 12 million vehicles on South Africa’s roads. Even fewer electric cars are in operation in most other African countries.
I guess Musk isn’t concerned about US environment. I suspect US oil producers are drilling anywhere they can in the US & offshore. The only new plots would be in protected areas in natural wildlife areas.
Besides even if those areas were opened up for drilling the Ukraine war will likely be over prior to production. And bringing more oil production online is detrimental to the adoption of EVs. I don’t think Musk thought this through before speaking out.
It is possible to be concerned about more than one thing at a time. We’re currently experiencing uncomfortably high inflation. High oil prices will make inflation even higher. The cure for that is high interest rates, but that cools down the economy. Not good.
The oil producers know what the price of oil is, they don’t need Musk to remind them. If it makes sense economically to drill they will, otherwise they won’t. But I will take the opportunity to flog my favorite dead horse some more: The lunatic Putin’s delusional invasion is screwing with our economy. And if it wasn’t Putin, it would be Saddam or someone like him, or some crackpot in Iran, etc. We’ve seen this movie before, and it ends with us losing a couple percent of GDP, either through lost growth or directly by economic contraction. A couple percent of GDP is…counts on fingers…a metric crapton of money. And that doesn’t count all the money we are using to pump up Ukraine and all the countries who are in threatened by petro-terrorist states. We spent a trillion dollars in Iraq and that doesn’t even count the first Iraq war. A trillion dollars here and a trillion dollars there, and pretty soon you are spending trillions of dollars.
My humble proposal is this: Let’s play offense instead. Let’s triple down on our effects to reduce our economy’s dependence on petroleum. It won’t be cheap, but the only thing that will be more expensive is remaining economically dependent on oil.
…assuming they can get the government’s permission.
That’s a good assumption. There are literally thousands of oil leases on public lands that are already permitted and approved to drill. Recent history tells us that many of these, maybe even most, will expire because oil companies have more leases than they can develop.
What is long term? I think in 10 years oil will not be important to the global economy.
Heh. In 10 years I’m pretty sure oil will be more important to the global economy.
Militaries are going to ruin on oil, not sunshine. Tankers and cargo ships are going to run on oil, not electrons. Railroads are going to run on diesel, not rechargeables. More than 90% of cars on the road will be filling up at the gas station, not plugging in at Whole Foods.
10 years will not be enough to start up any significant number of nuclear plants, even if the political will is uh, willing. A relatively small percent of homes are going to throw out their gas furnaces and stoves and go “all electric” in just a decade.
Farmers are not going to find new oil-less fertilizer substitutes, and plastics manufacturers are not going to start packaging products in paper just to please the environmental crowd. Roads, of which there are always more, are going to be mostly made of asphalt, not old tires, as enticing an idea as that sounds.
Lubricants are going to be mostly oil derived, airplanes will fly with kerosene, and the steel industry will still use vast amounts of oil and derivatives.
If you are so sure you should short each and every oil company, and include associated fields like pipelines and refiners and the like. It would be interesting to see where your investments stand in a decade, except I’m pretty sure you wouldn’t have any at all.