So after following Saul’s and more recently Bear’s monthly summaries, I have decided that it would be good for me to do the same. I am hoping it gives me a little accountability and perhaps an insight or two that I wouldn’t have had otherwise.
Before I start, I should note a couple of things. First, unlike the other two, my portfolio is made up of over 50 holdings. I know this makes it difficult to follow them all closely, but it does a couple of good things for me as well. One, with such a large portfolio, I am at a fairly low risk of seriously under performing the market as long as I buy good companies. Since I use TMF for most of my selections, I feel comfortable there. Second, most of my larger positions cakes from the list of smaller positions. In other words quite a few of the positions I will list came from the smaller positions that I will not.
My performance so far this year, as of 9/30 is +7.5%, which measures well versus the market overall, perhaps slightly down from the Russel 2000.
So having said that, I will list only my top 15 positions or so, and I will start out doing this only quarterly. Partly because I don’t have the time, but also because I don’t think my top positions will change significantly on a monthly basis. But who knows, I may be surprised at how much it does change on a quarterly basis.
So here goes…
2 Large portions (for me)
AAPL 6.7%
BRK-K 5.4%
These two are I am sure well known enough that I do not need to discuss too far. In both cases, the cost in is less than half of the present value. In fact, I have sold some AAPL over time and my cost in is significantly less. But today I feel that both of these are companies that are very conservatively valued and have bright futures. I am very comfortable with both.
5 Medium Positions
TFSL 4.1%
NSAM 4.0% (includes some CLNY as well)
PRAA 3.9%
ATVI 3.8%
NFLX 3.3%
This list is a little more of a mixed bag. NFLX, ATVI, and PRAA are all long time holdings of more than 4 years each. NFLX is my dinner party stock, i.e. The one I can talk about when poeple bring up their great buys. I have owned it from 17 up to 300 back to 60 and Then all the way back and more. I have however sold most of it off over time. I am comfortable with the amount I have although it is hard to justify on price (just as it has been for quite some time). Similarly but to a much lesser extent, activison is a triple from my cost. I have been thinking of selling covered calls on a portion but have not done so. PRAA is tough one. I have owned this for close to a decade and have done very well. I really liked its ability to slowly grow in almost any environment. But the last year or so has been very difficult. The stock fell to a point where it seemed to have more value taken private. It has now come back to a fair price and I am at a point where perhaps it shouldn’t be such a large part of my portfolio. Not doing anything at present.
The final two are value plays. TFSL is a savings and loan that used to be a mutual savings and loan. They went public but only part way. This has left a company that has only issued roughly 20% of its stock. If you look it up, the PE is 65, and the book value is like 6 dollars (present price is 18). But in actuality the PE is less tha 15 and book value is over $28. They are buying stock back by the handful with excess cash on hand. I think this is a very low risk stock and have built up my position over the last year or so.
NSAM /CLNY is another value play. They are both REITS and in the process of a merger. NSAM is a management stock which was at much higher values but split with the its asset side (NRF) and due to a number of factors caused the stock to basically cut in half. The announced, but not locked merger will solve these issues. If completed, the resulting company will have 8-9% dividend and future growth potential. This has been climbing for a while now and assuming the merger goes through will continue to rise. (My plan anyway!)
4 Small Positions
KMI 2.4%
CTRE 2.3%
LGIH 2.1%
INBK 2.0%
KMI is a pipeline company and although it has taken a big hit over thee last year, I have added a bit below 20 and think it is a conservative play on oil prices rising now. CTRE is a health care facility REIT. A good dividend and lots of room to grow as they consolidate a very fragmented industry.
LGIH and INBK and both stocks that this board is familiar. Low PE and good growth, just my kinds of companies.
And the next few (anything greater than 1.5%)
PAYX, FII, SKX, LUK, GOOG, ULTA
I won’t say too much about these.
PAYX is a slow growing company that pays a good growing dividend that I have owned for a few years and it has grown nicely along the way.
FII is another dividend paying financial company which will do well in a rising dividend environment. A good diversification play.
SKX. I can’t tell anyone here anything that you don’t already know.
LUK. A junior Berkshire Hathaway in my book. They have struggled over the last year or two for a couple reasons. One they merged with Jeffries, a brokerage. Seemed like a good fit but now the price is tied to the brokerages prospects. Second, they own a major beef processing company and the business has been bad for the last couple years. This is finally turning and should improve their prospects. I do have some covered calls on LUK and if they are called away, I am okay with moving this to another position.
GOOG and ULTA, these are two growth companies that have been climbing in my portfolio and I look forward for that to continue. In ULTAs case I recently sold 1/3 of my position due to price. If it drops much lower than it is today I will probably buy back in.
That is it. Any thoughts are welcome. The 11 positions I listed represent 40% of my portfolio. The next 6 almost gets to 50%. I did notice that most of my growth type companies don’t quite make the list. Included are CELG,CMG, AMZN, ETC. As you can imagine, I have a lot of positions at the 1% and lower. I also have some diagonal calls in stocks that depending on how you calculated their value could have made this list.
Randy
Owner of every stock mentioned in this post.
