Sorry - I’ve been too busy even to lurk (and I’m happy with my current portfolio), but I did want to drop by and present my thoughts on the MDB concerning the competition from AWS DocumentDB.
So let me start with my basic thesis. MongoDb has won the NoSql wars, and it is only going to grow for the next 20 years. Really that is how long I intend to own it without selling. My reasoning is like this: Databases are a winner takes most market. Right now most enterprise data is stored on mainframes (Cobol,DB/2) and on db servers (MySql, Oracle, DB/2, Postgres). New datastores will be starting up on NoSql, mostly on the cloud, and there will be a steady movement of some old data stores to new environments.
Because databases are a winner take most market, MongoDb is going to benefit from most of that growth, which is why you want to own it for 20 years. They are very unlikely to be upset by any new technology - they will have the money and the market penetration to see any dangerous technology well before it takes their market share, and either build it or buy it to keep ahead of the others.
Now this doesn’t say that there won’t be competition. This is a huge market, and everyone would like a piece - but they are going to struggle for crumbs while Mongo surfs on the wave.
I expect every single major web player to try to take a piece of the pie. And every time a large company puts out a new offering, MongoDb’s stock price will swoon. But the stock will swoon with people taking profits, not because the MongoDb business model is actually affected.
Amazon’s offering is one example - this is a big company that knows how to win on the web. But Amazon’s offering is Mongo 3.6 - anything higher is covered by the new SSPL license. So how is Amazon going to keep up, when Mongo is already on 4.1? Amazon has had its own NoSql databases, with some limited success for a decade. But the industry is not interested in a wholesale move to an Amazon database - MongoDb is the clear winner, and Amazon DocumentDB 2.0 is not going to interest people who want MongoDb 4.2
I expect we’ll see lots of swoons over the next 20 years - buying opportunities. Just wait until Oracle buys a big NoSql database and reports that a very big client has decided to use Oracle NoSql (not mentioning that they will be moving from the expensive Oracle Sql db to an almost free version of the NoSql db). Mongo could fall 30% in a day. But that is just profit taking and emotion.
Now, I’m not saying that there isn’t risk. Mongo will need to stay on top of the technology, and on top of the price competition. But these company announcements aren’t going to affect the 20 year uptrend. The only risk that will make me rethink my ownership in Mongo, is if on an earning report their growth slows unexpectedly, at a time when other technology spending doesn’t slow. Except for earnings reports, I’m not even interested in Mongo news,
Just my view.