Okay, this thread is completely OFF-TOPIC! I admit that I contributed to it, but 20 posts on this thread is enough. LET’S CUT IT OFF HERE!!! If you want to preach market-timing and the-world-is-coming-to-an-end, please take it to another board. You can find listings of boards for off-topic discussions on the side panel.
Thanks for your cooperation
Saul
Jay,
Liquidity drives markets,plain and simple. PE ratios are not useful in determining market tops or bottoms.
We are late in this business cycle - how do I know? The very flat yield curve is telling me.
If the Fed keeps raising rates and shrinks liquidity, the yield curve will invert, the stock boom will end and the economy will contract.
During the bear market, the high flying growth stocks will decline the most (because growth will disappoint and institutions will dump them to raise cash for fund redemptions/to meet margin calls).
This is how it has worked over the past 100 years and “this time is different” and “we are in a new era” have proven to be very expensive beliefs.
Play the game but keep an eye on the punch bowl (yield curve).