Isn’t this something of routine? In the fall, the media is usually atwitter about how cold winter will be, driving gas prices up. By mid January, winter is seen as not as bad as the media, and people talking their book, made it out to be, supplies are discovered to be abundant, and the price of gas falls.
I am neither bullish nor bearish on the short term price of natural gas, but there is another side to the argument. See link below.
There could be some price support if/when the Freeport (Texas) LNG export terminal gets back into service. An explosion and fire there last year shut down operations. If Freeport can’t export LNG to Europe (and Asia?), then there is more gas available domestically, which depresses the price on a glut of supply.
The only bullish case for NG would be the Northeast with 10 F weather for three weeks January into February. It is 29 F right now at midnight. It wont get any colder tonight in my area.
The lowest temperature in my area on January 27 on the ten day weather planner(for some reason it goes out to Jan 28) is 22 F overnight. That should be 10 F. The two days around it are 24 F overnight. But it is the weather.