Starting a new topic on this (rather than just at the end of my recent portfolio review). Earnings were out earlier today - and they were excellent earnings indeed.
Beat on annual revenue run rate $249M ($220M) was forecast.(up 175% QoQ!)
April ARR was $310M with continued momentum into May.
Re-affirming ARR guidance of $750M-$1B by year end.
Debt free— this is huge (unlike Coreweave which is heavy in debt).
Revenue up 385% YoY and 46% QoQ.
Material and rapid expansion of capacity
Material growth in stand-alone business verticals like AVride
Management is accomplishing all of this with Cash so far and seems committed to avoiding share dilution for as long as possible.
Very happy with these earnings.
Full results here:
Stock currently up 7% (but higher earlier). I would have expected more. Maybe the market is taking time to digest just how good these results were.
It’s a really interesting company, @jonathan1 so thanks for bringing it forward. At 89X revenue (and a double in the past month), it seems to me that the market may have been expecting strong results already.
Why do you think they will win against AWS/Microsoft/GCP/Oracle?
I have been wading into NBIS over the last month’s dip. I am a strong believer in NVDA’s AI for the next 1-2 years. Yes, NBIS is up almost 100% the last 6 weeks so I did not expect a pop today. Here is a nice NBIS Q1 ER review just out today by couchinvestor. Nebius regularly explains in their ER and the press that their win strategy against the hyper scalars is in my words a full stack, lower price (per their data center build expertise), and a simple rent the hardware/software stack versus complex run away service charges like AWS. The existing two primary customers provide some nice foundation as they are fast growers (Toloka and Avride). If the Q1 NVDA ER is strong, then we may get a secondary jump in NBIS. I am holding for now but still have a very touchy sell finger due to the unpredictable tariff terror.
I’m no expert, and I think it was Luffy not me that first brought Nebius to this board, but I still see the huge demand for AI data centres as “insane” (to borrow a word from Jensen Huang).
I think that the announcement by Nebius of a huge giant 300MW Data centre in New Jersey shows us that NBIS management feels confident of continuing market demand and that this positions them well to continue competing with the hyperscalers.
I continue to think that the numbers to watch are their ARR projections and how that ultimately translates to revenue. So far so good, and I remain happy to keep it as my number 1 position at 33%.
Revenue in the current quarter was $55m so the trailing P/sales might look silly, but in this report the company guided for 500-700M FY25 revenue, which will be something like 60% QoQ revenue in each of the next 3 quarters
So the forward sales multiple is more like 13.5x EV / FY25 revenue growing at 340% YoY
I’m a big believer in Nebius here as well. It is second only to HOOD in my portfolio at the present.
Particularly of interest to me is the strong cash position-- between cash and equity ownership in other companies, Nebius still has cash (/equities) that are worth roughly half of its market cap.
They recently raised an additional billion dollars on very favorable low yield convertible preferreds-- This tells me the investors are more interested in the price appreciation than any real yield.
I will likely be selling covered calls on most of my high growth companies, including Nebius and HOOD–
My portfolio at present is 60% HOOD, 35% NBIS 5% TSSI.
I had a much larger position in TSSI but took some profits after its big post earnings run.
Yes, it had another very nice pop yesterday too (up another 25% at one point) probably after an analyst on CNBC said they preferred it over Coreweave, or it was maybe down to a new analyst in London from Arete valuing the stock at $84.
Bert also wrote a very upbeat article on Nebius yesterday too on SA and valued it at many multiples higher. It seems to be gaining a lot more interest recently after its last upbeat earnings.
It rose to 36% of my portfolio yesterday so I decided to trim it to bring it just under 30% again. But half of me regrets doing that as I expect another significant pop today too. I might buy more if it falls back to below where I trimmed yesterday.
Its all looking very positive, and it still remains significantly undervalued on a Fwd Peg basis.
Long Nebius.
Today, CRWV market cap $67B, EV $79B including debts.
NBIS market cap $11.5B, EV $10.24B including debts and cash.
Rightly so, CRWV business with >$4B revenue is 1 year ahead of NBIS with $200M-ish revenue.
Fast forward a year, mid 2026, will NBIS get to $64B EV with less debt, or better yet simplified the question, will NBIS get to $64B market cap? Will NBIS reach Rev $4B with profitability far exceeding gross margin level of CRWV? If it does, $128B market cap is within reach. >10 bags in 1-1.5 years. It is not a dream, it is an analysis.
What is the likelihood of CRWV overloaded with debts and hurt their sales. What is the likelihood of NBIS winning clients from CRWV. If it does, then we are talking about 20 bagger, 30 bagger. We do not know today, not many visibility nor recognition except this Arete Research’s initial shot.
$64B question you can not answer, perhaps can visualize.
This is a race. I wouldn’t focus on debt at all. My focus is on customers and Revenue growth. I think they both will do well but only one is going to be the top dog.
