Nervokid March Portfolio Update

Here is my portfolio update for March 2021. I decided to start writing these at the beginning of this year, more as a personal tracker than anything else. Links to the previous months can be found at the bottom of the post.

Some movement this month, as I go further in the journey to adapt to this board’s philosophy, with further consolidation of positions around the ones where I have the highest conviction. Portfolio has gradually evolved from around seventy positions six months ago, to the current twelve.

Those 12 can be split into:
* Top Conviction or Tier 1 - Crowdstrike, Cloudflare, Datadog, Snowflake, Palantir, Roku.
* Tier 2 - Magnite, Fiverr, EXP, Fulgent
* Tier 3 - fuboTV, Lightspeed

Unless something goes horribly wrong with company performance, I expect to hold the Tier 1s for a long time and keep adding to them as I think they are executing well and have good chances of becoming gigantic in the future. That said, Palantir and Roku’s current share in the portfolio don’t reflect my conviction, in part that is due to their stock price performance, but I will be looking to add soon.

Tier 2 are companies I believe in, am happy with their results so far and happy to hold them for now, but have doubts on whether I’ll be holding past this year. No plans to add significantly at this point.

Tier 3 includes one company I reduced significantly this month (FUBO) in order to bolster other positions. Will be adding to FUBO throughout the year, the reason I bought it was their betting angle - on the latest earnings report they confirmed they now have licenses for NFL and NBA, and I saw this week they’re hiring the team that will handle this, so, so far so good. They’ve also mentioned the impact from this will only start to show much later this year.
Also in this tier, the only new addition to the portfolio (LSPD). I picked it up from board write-ups here and still need to learn more about it before deciding to push further.


**Company		Ticker	% March	% Feb**
Crowdstrike	CRWD	21.4%	19.0%
CloudFlare	NET	21.0%	19.5%
DataDog		DDOG	8.3%	7.7%
Snowflake	SNOW	8.1%	3.8%
Magnite		MGNI	7.8%	7.2%
Fiverr		FVRR	7.0%	7.9%
EXP World Hldng	EXPI	6.6%	6.2%
FulgentGenetics	FLGT	6.6%	5.9%
Palantir	PLTR	5.8%	3.5%
Roku		ROKU	5.3%	4.6%
LightSpeed	LSPD	1.6%	-
fuboTV		FUBO	0.6%	2.8%

Lemonade	LMND	 -	5.5%
Teladoc		TDOC	 -	4.9%
GameStop	GME	 -	0.7%
Yalla Group	YALA	 -	0.5%
Mountain Pass	MP	 -	0.1%

Company Stock evolution ytd

For positions started this year, starting price is where I first bought it.
For companies I was already holding in December, starting price is Dec 31 Close.

**Price 03/26	Starting	Growth**
FLGT	95.23		52.1		82.8%
EXPI	47.94		31.56		51.9%
MGNI	40.91		30.71		33.2%
FVRR	201.88		195.1		3.5%
LSPD	60.35		58.5		3.2%
PLTR	22.58		23.55		-4.1%
ROKU	306.82		332.02		-7.6%
NET	67.57		75.99		-11.1%
CRWD	177.68		211.82		-16.1%
SNOW	235		281.4		-16.5%
DDOG	80.29		98.44		-18.4%
FUBO	21.88		28		-21.9%

Portfolio Results Year to Date

End of Jan +24.7%
End of Feb +14,0%
End of Mar -6,9%

I bought long calls (LEAPs) in February for PLTR and NET, they are worth less than half of what I paid for them right now, that is contributing a lot to bring down the value of the portfolio.

Noteworthy movement this month:


Yalla Group (YALA)
MP Materials Corp (MP)

These were really small recent positions where I was just exploring.
MP , US mining company trying to make sure there’s an American source of rare materials to be used in parts manufacturing for electric vehicles (so there’s not so much reliance on China and other countries) I decided quickly was not for me.

YALA is a company headquartered in Dubai that I brought to the board recently, voice social network establishing itself in the MENA region, with an additional product, Yalla Ludo, online gaming (casual, board games) with voice chat included that’s showing healthy growth. YALA reported on their Q4 recently, and I actually liked the numbers, but as there seems to be almost no coverage from analysts or financial services, I’d be relying almost exclusively on the company’s quarterly statements. That, coupled with a prevalence of stock-based compensation to employees impacting their returns once again last quarter (and no clear visibility of when that would end) led me to exit. They may very well become a success story, but there was some risk associated.

GameStop (GME)

Had reduced the position size last month to a tiny fraction, with the return of the volatility sold everything this month once in the green.

Teladoc (TDOC)
Lemonade (LMND)

I really like these two, and hope they will bring returns to their investors. Looking at my portfolio this month, though, decided to consolidate further, and these turned out to be the companies where I had the least conviction.

Confidence in Teladoc was a lot stronger last month, got very shaken due to this great discussion here on the board:…
News around Amazon furthering their activities in this space this year also didn’t help.

New positions:
Thanks ethan1234 for the great write-up, got me interested:

Added to:
CrowdStrike, Palantir, Snowflake, Datadog, EXP World Holdings, Roku.


Notes on Palantir (PLTR)

I believe we will hear more and more about Palantir in the decade ahead, having started to lay the foundations for their commercial offer to grow along with the institutional one. They have recently celebrated deals with IBM and AWS to prompt improvements in their software selling process, this will take a while to show, but should be a good move for them.

This week I’ve watched this interesting CNBC interview with Peter Karp, Palantir CEO:

Karp comes off as a mix of mad scientist and Homeland (TV show) character, but I was pleased to see he’s not oblivious to that fact and does no effort to disguise it. Most likely due to some PR training, he calls that out himself, describing Palantir as that company that’s run by the crazy looking guy with a bunch of 12 year olds. The fact is that bunch have been winning several government and big company contracts, in the US and internationally.
He also doesn’t shy from the covert operations angle, repeating ad nauseam that Palantir won contracts with agencies in the US and among its allies.

In their latest earnings report Palantir reported full year revenue of over $1Bn, and plan to hit $4Bn by 2024.

January 2021 Update

February 2021 Update

Cheers everyone,