New York State is between a rock and a (green) hard place. They have to change their climate law or do the impossible. There is now a court ruling that the Climate Act is in fact a law, not a political promise that can be ignored when convenient.
The 2019 law gave the state Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) until January 2024 to issue regulations that would ensure New York meets these binding greenhouse gas emissions targets. DEC never issued those regs, so several environmental groups sued.
The ruling will be appealed, so things will drag out for several more months.
From the link, the current required goal is to cut greenhouse gas emissions 40% below 1990 levels by 2030.
Putting some numbers on this…
From the 2024 NY Statewide GHG Emissions Report (evidently the latest report available), we find the following:
From Figure ES.1, the 1990 total was 409.12 mmtCO2e. Sixty percent of this is 245.5 mmtCO2e. That is the 2030 goal.
As of 2022, the state’s emissions were 371.08 mmtCO2e. They will need to decrease yearly emissions by 125 mmt in 8 years. This seems unlikely, since they only decreased 92 mmt between 2005 (peak year) and 2022. By my calculation, they will need to decrease GHG emissions at a rate 3 times what they have historically declined at since the peak in 2005. It just isn’t going to happen.
From the link above, Table ES.2, methane is about a quarter to a third of total GHG emissions. Most of that methane comes from waste and agriculture.
Before making these climate goals, perhaps someone should consider if the goal is achievable, and if so, how are they going to do it? Having a detailed plan of action is better than the obviously flawed hopes and dreams that have set policy till now.
The DEC was supposed to do that and didn’t (and I agree that it’s not feasible). In the short run the state could do things such as ration gasoline, but I doubt that is politically doable. In the longer run the state has a source problem what with offshore wind not going very far, very fast.
Things must be pretty desperate, since Gov Hochul is now pushing for new nuclear power capacity in upstate. A few years ago, the state successfully forced shut down of the Indian Point nuclear plant. Now, a new governor is planning for more nuclear capacity. Maybe that’s because CO2 emissions went up when Indian Point shut down.
Earlier this year, New York Governor Kathy Hochul directed the New York Power Authority (NYPA) - the state’s public electric utility - to look to develop at least one gigawatt of new nuclear capacity in upstate New York. The NYPA “immediately commenced pre-feasibility efforts” following Hochul’s announcement in June, beginning discussions with a range of stakeholders.
The NYPA has now issued two solicitations: a Request for Information (RFI) for Upstate New York communities interested in hosting an advanced nuclear project developed by the Power Authority, and an RFI seeking information from potential development partners with experience developing, constructing, operating or servicing nuclear power projects.
But it matters whether they “matter” or not, and the heart of our current mess is that laws, promises, loyalties, allies, traditions, and all that crud Do NOT matter any longer.
But for how long?
No societies can do this kind of heedlessness of law and mutual respect for long. Whether our economy goes down can be debated, but our civil society is in a worsening world of hurt with long term injuries, and I doubt that the “custodians” of our investments and our currency and the foundations of our long term well-being will come out of this without severe debilities.
I am battening down, and not just in my investments.
What happens when you buy things you can’t afford? You go broke and that is what is happening all over with green policies. Look at France, the UK, Germany. The rich have the extra Euro, the poor don’t. George Gilder got it right, “Environmentalism is the privilege of the rich.” Put another way, environmentalism unfairly taxes the poor.
I’m assuming we’re talking about the cost of climate actions, not the goals in themselves.
ROI is what matters. Affordable actions that have little impact might not be worth the investment. Expensive actions that have major impacts may be worth the investment.
Indeed. However, the New York scoping plan (put out each year) calls for DEFRs – dispatchable emissions-free resources – which they admit aren’t available (outside of nuclear).
Nice generalization but Green Climate policies are BANKRUPTING Germany because they forgot to put a price tag on the policies. As a priest once said to me, “God will provide.” Sure!
The causes of Germany’s budget struggles are complex. Sure, we can just blame Energiewende because it’s simple, but then we wouldn’t have a full understanding of all the factors that contributed to their current conditions.
I get it, thinking is hard. Ugghh, my brain hurts, maybe we should just blame Fukushima…
